Bucks vs Pacers Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Apr. 28

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Apr 28, 2024, 4:30 PM
  • The Pacers are -9.5 favorites vs. the Bucks
  • Total (Over/Under): 216.5 points
  • Watch the game on TNT | BSIN | BSWI

The Milwaukee Bucks visit Gainbridge Fieldhouse to take on the Indiana Pacers on Sunday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EDT in Indianapolis, IN.

The Pacers are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -9.5 (-115).

The Bucks vs Pacers Over/Under is 216.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Bucks are 37-47 against the spread, while the Pacers are 45-38 against the spread.


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Bucks vs. Pacers Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Milwaukee Bucks+9.5 -105O 216.5 -110+350
Indiana Pacers -9.5 -115U 216.5 -110-450

Pacers vs Bucks Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Pacers will win Sunday‘s game with 61.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Bucks and Pacers.

Pacers vs Bucks Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Bucks will cover the spread for Sunday‘s game with 66.4% confidence.


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  • The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the Team Total Under in 36 of their last 59 games (+12.35 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 54 games (+7.80 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 34 of their last 58 games (+7.60 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.40 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 18 of their last 28 away games (+6.60 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 41 of their last 59 games (+20.30 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 48 of their last 80 games (+13.40 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have hit the Team Total Over in 27 of their last 40 games at home (+13.05 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have hit the 1H Moneyline in 14 of their last 20 games (+9.30 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 50 of their last 86 games (+9.30 Units / 9% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Bucks have gone 37-47 (-14.7 Units / -15.74% ROI).

  • 50-35 against the Moneyline (-43.4 Units / -14.84% ROI)
  • 43-42 against the Over for game total points (-3.2 Units / -3.42% ROI)
  • 42-43 against the Under for game total points (-5.3 Units / -5.67% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Pacers have gone 45-38 (+3.2 Units / 3.38% ROI).

  • 49-37 against the Moneyline (+0.05 Units / 0.03% ROI)
  • 43-41 against the Over for game total points (-2.15 Units / -2.3% ROI)
  • 41-43 against the Under for game total points (-6.3 Units / -6.74% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 18 of their last 59 games (-28.45 Units / -42% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have only hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 31 of their last 82 games (-25.45 Units / -27% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have only hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 86 games (-24.40 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have only hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 35 of their last 86 games (-22.40 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 37 of their last 86 games (-18.35 Units / -19% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 53 games (-51.40 Units / -29% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 38 of their last 71 games (-28.65 Units / -17% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only covered the 1H Spread in 10 of their last 41 away games (-23.60 Units / -50% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the Team Total Over in 21 of their last 59 games (-21.45 Units / -31% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only covered the 3Q Spread in 35 of their last 85 games (-20.15 Units / -21% ROI)

Jump to:

Milwaukee Bucks: Keys to the Game vs. the Indiana Pacers

The Bucks were 27-11 (.711) when allowing 15 or more second chance points last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .466

The Bucks were 27-3 (.900) when scoring 15 or more fastbreak points last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .554

The Bucks were 29-8 (.784) when scoring 15 or more second chance points last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .531

The Bucks were 51-21 (.708) when grabbing 12 or more offensive rebounds last season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .491

Indiana Pacers: Keys to the Game vs. the Milwaukee Bucks

The Pacers are 3-8 (.273) when scoring fewer than 10 fastbreak points this season — tied for 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .395

The Pacers were 1-3 (.250) when scoring fewer than 10 fastbreak points last season — 4th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .444

The Pacers are 10-29 (.256) when allowing 15 or more three-pointers since the start of the 2022-23 season — 9th-worst in the NBA. The Bucks have made 14.5 three-pointers per game since the start of the 2022-23 season — 4th-highest in the NBA.

The Pacers are 29-14 (.674) when shooting 80% or better from the free throw line this season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .543

Injury Report: Pacers vs. BucksSunday‘s Game, Apr. 28

  • Bennedict Mathurin (Indiana Pacers): Shoulder, Out For Season
  • AJ Green (Milwaukee Bucks): Ankle, Game Time Decision
  • Giannis Antetokounmpo (Milwaukee Bucks): Calf, Game Time Decision
  • Jaylin Galloway (Milwaukee Bucks): Ankle, Out For Season

Milwaukee Bucks Offensive Stats & Trends

The Bucks have averaged 1.39 points per shot (4,829 points/3,483 shots) in the second half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.31

The Bucks have averaged 1.44 points per shot (1,358 points/940 shots) in close and late situations this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.32

The Bucks averaged 6.8 points in the paint per game (414 points/61 games) in close and late situations last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 8.8

The Bucks had an assist to turnover ratio of 1.8 (2,115 assists/ 1,199 TOs) last season — tied for 8th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

Indiana Pacers Offensive Stats & Trends

The Pacers have averaged 58.0 points in the paint per game (2,376 points/41 games) on the road this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 49.7

The Pacers averaged 3.1 fast break points per game (204 points/66 games) in close and late situations last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 2.0

The Pacers have averaged 29.0 points in the paint per game (2,374 points/82 games) in the second half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 24.6

The Pacers are shooting 51% (3,855/7,599) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

Milwaukee Bucks Defensive Stats & Trends

The Bucks averaged 39.7 defensive rebounds per game (3,254 rebounds/82 games) last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Bucks have averaged 38.3 defensive rebounds per game (6,289 rebounds/164 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.3

The Bucks allowed an average of 1.21 points per shot (4,679 points/3,854 shots) on the road last season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 1.31

The Bucks allowed an average of 1.18 points per shot (4,607 points/3,889 shots) in the first half last season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 1.28

Indiana Pacers Defensive Stats & Trends

The Pacers averaged 33.3 defensive rebounds per game (2,730 rebounds/82 games) last season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Pacers have averaged 33.7 defensive rebounds per game (2,763 rebounds/82 games) this season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Pacers averaged 5.8 blocks per game (478 blocks/82 games) last season — tied for 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Pacers have averaged 6.0 blocks per game (492 blocks/82 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.