Bucks vs Pelicans Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Mar. 28

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Mar 28, 2024, 4:30 PM
  • The Bucks are -1.5 favorites vs. the Pelicans
  • Total (Over/Under): 224.5 points
  • Watch the game on NBAt | BSNO | WMLW

The Milwaukee Bucks visit Smoothie King Center to take on the New Orleans Pelicans on Thursday. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EDT in New Orleans, LA.

The Bucks are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -1.5 (-105).

The Bucks vs Pelicans Over/Under is 224.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Bucks are 32-39 against the spread, while the Pelicans are 39-31 against the spread.


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Bucks vs. Pelicans Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Milwaukee Bucks-1.5 -105O 224.5 -110-120
New Orleans Pelicans +1.5 -115U 224.5 -110+100

Pelicans vs Bucks Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Bucks will win Thursday‘s game with 52.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Bucks and Pelicans.

Pelicans vs Bucks Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Pelicans will cover the spread for Thursday‘s game with 56.7% confidence.


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  • The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 26 of their last 40 away games (+9.70 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 20 away games (+9.50 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 31 of their last 50 games (+9.10 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 17 of their last 24 away games (+8.85 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have covered the 4Q Spread in 19 of their last 30 away games (+8.50 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have hit the 1H Moneyline in 53 of their last 74 games (+32.95 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 46 of their last 68 games (+19.95 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have covered the 1H Spread in 46 of their last 74 games (+15.70 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have covered the 1Q Spread in 28 of their last 40 games (+15.25 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 37 of their last 59 games (+11.80 Units / 17% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Bucks have gone 32-39 (-10.9 Units / -13.78% ROI).

  • 46-26 against the Moneyline (-13.15 Units / -5.2% ROI)
  • 36-36 against the Over for game total points (-3.6 Units / -4.55% ROI)
  • 36-36 against the Under for game total points (-3.6 Units / -4.55% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Pelicans have gone 39-31 (+4.9 Units / 6.19% ROI).

  • 44-28 against the Moneyline (+8.75 Units / 5.24% ROI)
  • 31-41 against the Over for game total points (-14.1 Units / -17.8% ROI)
  • 41-31 against the Under for game total points (+6.9 Units / 8.71% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 22 of their last 59 games (-20.05 Units / -30% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 23 of their last 62 games (-17.65 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have only hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 80 games (-16.60 Units / -19% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 13 of their last 35 games at home (-12.25 Units / -30% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 20 of their last 48 games (-12.15 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the Moneyline in 47 of their last 79 games (-30.35 Units / -11% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 39 of their last 79 games (-25.00 Units / -17% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 35 of their last 84 games (-20.10 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only covered the 1H Spread in 11 of their last 40 away games (-20.05 Units / -44% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 26 of their last 65 games (-19.15 Units / -26% ROI)

Jump to:

Milwaukee Bucks: Keys to the Game vs. the New Orleans Pelicans

Keys to the game – away

New Orleans Pelicans: Keys to the Game vs. the Milwaukee Bucks

The Pelicans are 21-13 (.618) when allowing 15 or more second chance points this season — 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .446

The Pelicans were 13-2 (.867) when their eFG is 60% or better last season — tied for 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .808

The Pelicans are 25-11 (.694) when scoring 15 or more fastbreak points this season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .565

The Pelicans are 30-9 (.769) when winning the rebounding margin this season — tied for 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .643

Injury Report: Pelicans vs. BucksThursday‘s Game, Mar. 28

  • Jose Alvarado (New Orleans Pelicans): Not Injury Related, Game Time Decision
  • Brandon Ingram (New Orleans Pelicans): Illness, Game Time Decision
  • Dyson Daniels (New Orleans Pelicans): Knee, Out
  • CJ McCollum (New Orleans Pelicans): Ankle, Out
  • Naji Marshall (New Orleans Pelicans): Not Injury Related, Game Time Decision
  • Khris Middleton (Milwaukee Bucks): Ankle, Out

Milwaukee Bucks Offensive Stats & Trends

The Bucks averaged 1.7 second chance points per game (102 points/61 games) in close and late situations last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 2.7

The Bucks averaged 6.8 points in the paint per game (414 points/61 games) in close and late situations last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 8.8

The Bucks have averaged 1.47 points per shot (1,224 points/830 shots) in close and late situations this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.33

The Bucks are shooting 49% (3,140/6,407) this season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

New Orleans Pelicans Offensive Stats & Trends

The Pelicans are shooting 40% from three (486/1,211) in the first half this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 37%

The Pelicans have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.1 (1,952 assists/ 947 TOs) this season — tied for 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 2.0

The Pelicans have an eFG% of 56% this season — tied for 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 55%

The Pelicans averaged 14.7 fast break points per game (1,206 points/82 games) last season — tied for 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.0

Milwaukee Bucks Defensive Stats & Trends

The Bucks averaged 39.7 defensive rebounds per game (3,254 rebounds/82 games) last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Bucks have averaged 38.5 defensive rebounds per game (5,930 rebounds/154 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Bucks allowed an eFG% of 52% on the road last season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 55%

The Bucks have averaged 37.2 defensive rebounds per game (2,676 rebounds/72 games) this season — tied for 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

New Orleans Pelicans Defensive Stats & Trends

The Pelicans averaged 4.1 blocks per game (337 blocks/82 games) last season — tied for 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Pelicans have allowed opponents to shoot 33% from three (968/2,942) in the first half since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 37%

The Pelicans have averaged 35.9 defensive rebounds per game (2,586 rebounds/72 games) this season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Pelicans have averaged 35.6 defensive rebounds per game (5,487 rebounds/154 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.