Celtics vs Heat Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Apr. 27

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Apr 27, 2024, 4:30 PM
  • The Celtics are -9.5 favorites vs. the Heat
  • Total (Over/Under): 204.5 points
  • Watch the game on TNT | SUN | NBSB

The Boston Celtics visit Kaseya Center to take on the Miami Heat on Saturday. Tipoff is scheduled for 6:00pm EDT in Miami, FL.

The Celtics are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -9.5 (-115).

The Celtics vs Heat Over/Under is 205.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Celtics are 42-37 against the spread, while the Heat are 43-41 against the spread.


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Celtics vs. Heat Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Boston Celtics-9.5 -115O 205.5 -115-500
Miami Heat +9.5 -105U 205.5 -105+360

Heat vs Celtics Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Celtics will win Saturday‘s game with 80.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Celtics and Heat.

Heat vs Celtics Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Celtics will cover the spread for Saturday‘s game with 61.7% confidence.


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  • The Boston Celtics have hit the 1H Moneyline in 36 of their last 42 away games (+27.65 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have covered the 1H Spread in 59 of their last 87 games (+27.20 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 51 of their last 77 games (+22.30 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 47 of their last 65 games (+18.60 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have covered the 2Q Spread in 49 of their last 83 games (+15.00 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 54 of their last 96 games (+18.55 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Game Total Under in 57 of their last 95 games (+15.20 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 36 of their last 56 games (+15.15 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Moneyline in 54 of their last 99 games (+13.65 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have covered the 2Q Spread in 18 of their last 24 games (+12.30 Units / 44% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Celtics have gone 42-37 (+1.3 Units / 1.41% ROI).

  • 65-19 against the Moneyline (-1.05 Units / -0.23% ROI)
  • 44-39 against the Over for game total points (+1.15 Units / 1.25% ROI)
  • 39-44 against the Under for game total points (-9.4 Units / -10.17% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 43-41 (-2.1 Units / -2.22% ROI).

  • 48-38 against the Moneyline (+6.5 Units / 3.62% ROI)
  • 37-49 against the Over for game total points (-16.9 Units / -17.86% ROI)
  • 49-37 against the Under for game total points (+8.3 Units / 8.77% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 40 of their last 100 games (-25.05 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 95 games (-24.70 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 40 of their last 99 games (-24.55 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only covered the 4Q Spread in 37 of their last 89 games (-21.25 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 42 of their last 97 games (-19.90 Units / -18% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 36 of their last 99 games (-34.35 Units / -30% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 40 of their last 99 games (-24.45 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 41 of their last 99 games (-23.90 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 13 games (-19.70 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only covered the 3Q Spread in 44 of their last 99 games (-17.75 Units / -16% ROI)

Jump to:

Boston Celtics: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The Celtics were 22-1 (.957) when shooting 50% or better from the field last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .733

The Celtics were 17-5 (.773) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points last season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .556

The Celtics are 15-1 (.938) when scoring fewer than 10 second chance points this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .466

The Celtics are 23-4 (.852) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .604

Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Boston Celtics

The Heat were 12-8 (.600) when allowing 15 or more second chance points last season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .466

The Heat were 11-7 (.611) when scoring 15 or more fastbreak points last season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .554

The Heat were 34-10 (.773) when scoring 110 or more points last season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .643

The Heat were 16-6 (.727) when forcing 10 or more steals last season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .609

Injury Report: Heat vs. CelticsSaturday‘s Game, Apr. 27

  • Duncan Robinson (Miami Heat): Back, Game Time Decision
  • Josh Richardson (Miami Heat): Shoulder, Out For Season
  • Terry Rozier (Miami Heat): Neck, Out
  • Jrue Holiday (Boston Celtics): Knee, Game Time Decision
  • Derrick White (Boston Celtics): Ankle, Game Time Decision

Boston Celtics Offensive Stats & Trends

The Celtics have made 16.5 three-pointers per game this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.8

The Celtics have made 16.3 three-pointers per game since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.6

The Celtics made 16.0 three-pointers per game last season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.3

The Celtics have averaged 11.9 turnovers per game (979 turnovers/82 games) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.6

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat averaged 52.5 points per game (4,308 points/82 games) in the second half last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.1

The Heat averaged 107.5 points per game (4,408 points/41 games) on the road last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 113.4

The Heat averaged 109.5 points per game (8,977 points/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 114.7

The Heat have averaged 52.9 points per game (8,676 points/164 games) in the second half since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.4

Boston Celtics Defensive Stats & Trends

The Celtics have averaged 6.6 blocks per game (538 blocks/82 games) this season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

The Celtics averaged 38.0 defensive rebounds per game (3,112 rebounds/82 games) last season — tied for 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Celtics have averaged 37.9 defensive rebounds per game (6,221 rebounds/164 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.3

The Celtics have averaged 37.9 defensive rebounds per game (3,109 rebounds/82 games) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (265 blocks/82 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (523 blocks/164 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Heat have averaged 3.4 blocks per game (280 blocks/82 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

The Heat have averaged 3.1 blocks per game (258 blocks/82 games) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.0


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.