Celtics vs Heat Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Apr. 29

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Apr 29, 2024, 4:30 PM
  • The Celtics are -10.5 favorites vs. the Heat
  • Total (Over/Under): 203.5 points
  • Watch the game on TNT | NBSB | SUN

The Boston Celtics visit Kaseya Center to take on the Miami Heat on Monday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EDT in Miami, FL.

The Celtics are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -10.5 (-110).

The Celtics vs Heat Over/Under is 203.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Celtics are 43-37 against the spread, while the Heat are 43-42 against the spread.


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Celtics vs. Heat Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Boston Celtics-10.5 -110O 203.5 -115-550
Miami Heat +10.5 -110U 203.5 -105+400

Heat vs Celtics Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Celtics will win Monday‘s game with 83.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Celtics and Heat.

Heat vs Celtics Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Celtics will cover the spread for Monday‘s game with 59.2% confidence.


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  • The Boston Celtics have hit the 1H Moneyline in 37 of their last 43 away games (+28.65 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have covered the 1H Spread in 60 of their last 88 games (+28.20 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 52 of their last 78 games (+23.30 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 48 of their last 66 games (+19.60 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have covered the 2Q Spread in 50 of their last 84 games (+16.00 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 54 of their last 97 games (+17.55 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Game Total Under in 58 of their last 96 games (+16.20 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 37 of their last 57 games (+16.15 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 27 of their last 39 games at home (+13.10 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Moneyline in 54 of their last 100 games (+12.65 Units / 6% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Celtics have gone 43-37 (+2.3 Units / 2.46% ROI).

  • 66-19 against the Moneyline (-0.05 Units / -0.01% ROI)
  • 44-40 against the Over for game total points (+0.05 Units / 0.05% ROI)
  • 40-44 against the Under for game total points (-8.4 Units / -8.98% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 43-42 (-3.2 Units / -3.34% ROI).

  • 48-39 against the Moneyline (+5.5 Units / 3.05% ROI)
  • 37-50 against the Over for game total points (-18 Units / -18.81% ROI)
  • 50-37 against the Under for game total points (+9.3 Units / 9.72% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 96 games (-25.80 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 40 of their last 100 games (-25.70 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 40 of their last 100 games (-25.15 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 42 of their last 98 games (-21.05 Units / -19% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only covered the 4Q Spread in 38 of their last 90 games (-20.25 Units / -20% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 35 of their last 98 games (-35.35 Units / -32% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 40 of their last 99 games (-24.40 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 42 of their last 99 games (-21.80 Units / -19% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 14 games (-18.70 Units / -19% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only covered the 3Q Spread in 42 of their last 96 games (-18.65 Units / -17% ROI)

Jump to:

Boston Celtics: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

Keys to the game – away

Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Boston Celtics

The Heat were 34-10 (.773) when scoring 110 or more points last season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .643

The Heat were 12-3 (.800) when making 15 or more three-pointers last season — tied for 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .700

The Heat are 18-7 (.720) when attempting 25 or more free throws this season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .554

The Heat were 16-6 (.727) when forcing 10 or more steals last season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .609

Injury Report: Heat vs. CelticsMonday‘s Game, Apr. 29

  • Duncan Robinson (Miami Heat): Back, Game Time Decision
  • Josh Richardson (Miami Heat): Shoulder, Out For Season
  • Terry Rozier (Miami Heat): Neck, Out
  • Jrue Holiday (Boston Celtics): Knee, Game Time Decision
  • Derrick White (Boston Celtics): Ankle, Game Time Decision

Boston Celtics Offensive Stats & Trends

The Celtics have made 16.3 three-pointers per game since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.6

The Celtics have made 16.5 three-pointers per game this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.8

The Celtics have a TS% of 55% this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 52%

The Celtics have made 15.9 three-pointers per game on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.5

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat averaged 52.5 points per game (4,308 points/82 games) in the second half last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.1

The Heat are shooting 84% from the free throw line (1,550/1,844) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 79%

The Heat have averaged 45.1 points in the paint per game (1,850 points/41 games) on the road this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 49.7

The Heat averaged 107.5 points per game (4,408 points/41 games) on the road last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 113.4

Boston Celtics Defensive Stats & Trends

The Celtics have allowed an average of 1.19 points per shot (8,957 points/7,515 shots) this season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 1.28

The Celtics have averaged 37.9 defensive rebounds per game (3,109 rebounds/82 games) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Celtics have averaged 6.0 blocks per game (489 blocks/82 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

The Celtics averaged 38.0 defensive rebounds per game (3,112 rebounds/82 games) last season — tied for 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (265 blocks/82 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (523 blocks/164 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Heat averaged 3.0 blocks per game (243 blocks/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Heat have averaged 3.4 blocks per game (280 blocks/82 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.