Celtics vs Heat Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Feb. 11

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Feb 11, 2024, 4:30 PM
  • The Celtics are -5.5 favorites vs. the Heat
  • Total (Over/Under): 226.5 points
  • Watch the game on ABC

The Boston Celtics visit Kaseya Center to take on the Miami Heat on Sunday. Tipoff is scheduled for 2:00pm EST in Miami, FL.

The Celtics are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at ().

The Celtics vs Heat Over/Under is total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Celtics are 24-26 against the spread, while the Heat are 24-28 against the spread.


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Celtics vs. Heat Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Boston Celtics O
Miami Heat U

Heat vs Celtics Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Celtics will win Sunday‘s game with 71.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Celtics and Heat.

Heat vs Celtics Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Heat will cover the spread for Sunday‘s game with 51.5% confidence.


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  • The Boston Celtics have covered the 1H Spread in 61 of their last 98 games (+23.10 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have hit the 1H Moneyline in 22 of their last 25 away games (+18.80 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 57 of their last 97 games (+12.40 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 26 of their last 39 games (+11.80 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have covered the 2Q Spread in 30 of their last 51 games (+9.35 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 45 of their last 76 games (+20.75 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Moneyline in 46 of their last 82 games (+19.50 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 51 of their last 84 games (+19.15 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have covered the 1Q Spread in 52 of their last 85 games (+17.20 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Game Total Under in 39 of their last 61 games (+14.80 Units / 22% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Celtics have gone 24-26 (-4.55 Units / -7.95% ROI).

  • 40-12 against the Moneyline (+5.1 Units / 1.92% ROI)
  • 26-26 against the Over for game total points (-2.6 Units / -4.55% ROI)
  • 26-26 against the Under for game total points (-2.6 Units / -4.55% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 24-28 (-6.7 Units / -11.72% ROI).

  • 28-24 against the Moneyline (-2.45 Units / -2.83% ROI)
  • 21-31 against the Over for game total points (-13.1 Units / -22.9% ROI)
  • 31-21 against the Under for game total points (+7.9 Units / 13.81% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 29 of their last 84 games (-27.75 Units / -30% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 40 of their last 98 games (-24.50 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 41 of their last 100 games (-23.15 Units / -19% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 61 games (-20.90 Units / -31% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 20 of their last 55 games (-18.75 Units / -30% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the Moneyline in 64 of their last 93 games (-30.60 Units / -8% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only covered the 3Q Spread in 28 of their last 75 games (-23.90 Units / -29% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 40 of their last 97 games (-22.85 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 33 of their last 80 games (-20.15 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 38 of their last 75 games (-18.60 Units / -14% ROI)

Jump to:

Boston Celtics: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The Celtics were 22-1 (.957) when shooting 50% or better from the field last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .733

The Celtics are 28-5 (.848) when winning the rebounding margin this season — 4th-best in the NBA. The Heat have averaged 49.7 rebounds/game this season — 5th-lowest in the NBA.

The Celtics are 36-5 (.878) when scoring 110 or more points this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .641

The Celtics are 16-6 (.727) when attempting 25 or more free throws this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .561

Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Boston Celtics

The Heat are winless (0-3) when shooting 70% or worse from the free throw line this season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .393

The Heat are undefeated (8-0) when forcing an eFG of 50% or worse this season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: .821

The Heat are 1-6 (.143) when shooting 70% or worse from the free throw line since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .404

The Heat were 20-9 (.690) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points last season — 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .556

Injury Report: Heat vs. CelticsSunday‘s Game, Feb. 11

  • Duncan Robinson (Miami Heat): Illness, Game Time Decision
  • Dru Smith (Miami Heat): Knee, Out For Season
  • Luke Kornet (Boston Celtics): Hamstring, Game Time Decision
  • Kristaps Porzingis (Boston Celtics): Ankle, Game Time Decision

Boston Celtics Offensive Stats & Trends

The Celtics had an assist to turnover ratio of 2.1 (1,087 assists/ 527 TOs) on the road last season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

The Celtics have made 16.4 three-pointers per game at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.8

The Celtics have made 840 three-pointers this season — most among NBA teams

The Celtics have a TS% of 56% in the first half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 52%

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat averaged 52.5 points per game (4,308 points/82 games) in the second half last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.1

The Heat have averaged 107.5 points per game (7,092 points/66 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 113.8

The Heat have averaged 43.4 points in the paint per game (1,084 points/25 games) on the road this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 50.2

The Heat are shooting 45% (2,537/5,644) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

Boston Celtics Defensive Stats & Trends

The Celtics have averaged 39.0 defensive rebounds per game (2,027 rebounds/52 games) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.1

The Celtics have averaged 38.4 defensive rebounds per game (5,139 rebounds/134 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Celtics averaged 38.0 defensive rebounds per game (3,112 rebounds/82 games) last season — tied for 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Celtics have averaged 6.6 blocks per game (342 blocks/52 games) this season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.2

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat averaged 3.0 blocks per game (243 blocks/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (167 blocks/52 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.2

The Heat have averaged 3.1 blocks per game (209 blocks/68 games) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Heat have averaged 3.1 blocks per game (410 blocks/134 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.