Celtics vs Heat Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Jan. 25

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jan 25, 2024, 4:31 PM
  • The Celtics are -7.5 favorites vs. the Heat
  • Total (Over/Under): 224.5 points
  • Watch the game on TNT

The Boston Celtics visit Kaseya Center to take on the Miami Heat on Thursday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EST in Miami, FL.

The Celtics are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -7.5 (-115).

The Celtics vs Heat Over/Under is 224.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Celtics are 22-20 against the spread, while the Heat are 20-24 against the spread.


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Celtics vs. Heat Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Boston Celtics-7.5 -115O 224.5 -115-350
Miami Heat +7.5 -105U 224.5 -105+260

Heat vs Celtics Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Celtics will win Thursday‘s game with 74.4% confidence, factoring in recent team & player performances for the Celtics and Heat, plus player injuries and defensive & offensive matchups.

Heat vs Celtics Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Heat will cover the spread for Thursday‘s game with 51.5% confidence.


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  • The Boston Celtics have covered the 1H Spread in 61 of their last 93 games (+28.85 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have hit the 1H Moneyline in 72 of their last 93 games (+27.05 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 48 games (+14.85 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 60 of their last 93 games (+14.60 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 58 of their last 97 games (+14.45 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Moneyline in 42 of their last 74 games (+19.80 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 40 of their last 68 games (+19.15 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have covered the 1Q Spread in 48 of their last 77 games (+17.55 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 44 of their last 76 games (+13.15 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 53 games (+13.10 Units / 22% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Celtics have gone 22-20 (+0.05 Units / 0.1% ROI).

  • 34-10 against the Moneyline (+14.6 Units / 7.91% ROI)
  • 22-22 against the Over for game total points (-2.2 Units / -4.55% ROI)
  • 22-22 against the Under for game total points (-2.2 Units / -4.55% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 20-24 (-6.35 Units / -13.12% ROI).

  • 24-20 against the Moneyline (-2.15 Units / -2.96% ROI)
  • 18-26 against the Over for game total points (-10.6 Units / -21.9% ROI)
  • 26-18 against the Under for game total points (+6.2 Units / 12.81% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 37 of their last 93 games (-23.30 Units / -20% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 37 of their last 90 games (-21.95 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 28 of their last 76 games (-20.80 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only covered the 3Q Spread in 42 of their last 100 games (-19.45 Units / -18% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 53 games (-18.40 Units / -32% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 39 of their last 97 games (-25.25 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only covered the 3Q Spread in 25 of their last 67 games (-21.50 Units / -29% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 32 of their last 67 games (-21.35 Units / -18% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 42 of their last 97 games (-20.00 Units / -18% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 41 of their last 96 games (-18.30 Units / -17% ROI)

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Boston Celtics: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The Celtics are 27-6 (.818) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .566

The Celtics were 44-17 (.721) when grabbing 12 or more offensive rebounds last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .491

The Celtics were 17-5 (.773) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points last season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .556

The Celtics are 30-5 (.857) when scoring 110 or more points this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .635

Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Boston Celtics

The Heat were 32-21 (.604) when shooting 80% or better from the free throw line last season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .543

The Heat are 5-6 (.455) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points this season — tied for 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .545

The Heat are 9-5 (.643) when turning the ball over fewer than 10 times since the start of the 2022-23 season — 9th-best in the NBA. The Celtics have forced 12.5 turnovers per game since the start of the 2022-23 season — 2nd-lowest in the NBA.

The Heat were 10-1 (.909) when assisting on 30 or more field goals last season — 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .729

Injury Report: Heat vs. CelticsThursday‘s Game, Jan. 25

  • Tyler Herro (Miami Heat): Ankle, Game Time Decision
  • R.J. Hampton (Miami Heat): Knee, Out
  • Dru Smith (Miami Heat): Knee, Out For Season
  • Bam Adebayo (Miami Heat): Hip, Game Time Decision
  • Haywood Highsmith (Miami Heat): Back, Game Time Decision
  • Kristaps Porzingis (Boston Celtics): Calf, Game Time Decision

Boston Celtics Offensive Stats & Trends

The Celtics had an assist to turnover ratio of 2.1 (1,087 assists/ 527 TOs) on the road last season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

The Celtics have made 711 three-pointers this season — most among NBA teams

The Celtics have made 16.2 three-pointers per game this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.9

The Celtics have attempted 1,882 threes this season — most among NBA teams

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 5.0 fast break points per game (636 points/126 games) in the second half since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 6.6

The Heat have averaged 11.7 fast break points per game (515 points/44 games) this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.2

The Heat have averaged 4.9 fast break points per game (217 points/44 games) in the second half this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 6.7

The Heat averaged 52.5 points per game (4,308 points/82 games) in the second half last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.1

Boston Celtics Defensive Stats & Trends

The Celtics have averaged 38.2 defensive rebounds per game (4,819 rebounds/126 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Celtics have averaged 38.8 defensive rebounds per game (1,707 rebounds/44 games) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.1

The Celtics averaged 38.0 defensive rebounds per game (3,112 rebounds/82 games) last season — tied for 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Celtics averaged 6.4 steals per game (521 steals/82 games) last season — tied for 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.3

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat averaged 3.0 blocks per game (243 blocks/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Heat averaged 33.4 defensive rebounds per game (2,735 rebounds/82 games) last season — tied for 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Heat have averaged 3.1 blocks per game (392 blocks/126 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

The Heat have averaged 3.1 blocks per game (196 blocks/64 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.