- The Celtics are -7.5 favorites vs. the Heat
- Total (Over/Under): 214.5 points
- Watch the game on NBAt | NBSB | SUN
The Boston Celtics visit Kaseya Center to take on the Miami Heat on Friday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EDT in Miami, FL, FL, USA.
The Celtics are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -7.5 (-115).
The Celtics vs Heat Over/Under is 214.5 total points for the game.
So far this NBA season, the Celtics are 29-36 against the spread, while the Heat are 29-35 against the spread.
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Celtics vs. Heat Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Boston Celtics | -7.5 -115 | O 214.5 -115 | -325 |
| Miami Heat | +7.5 -105 | U 214.5 -105 | +260 |
Heat vs Celtics Prediction for Tonight’s Game:
The winning team model predicts the Celtics will win Friday‘s game with 80.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Celtics and Heat.
Heat vs Celtics Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Celtics will cover the spread for Friday‘s game with 53.1% confidence.
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Celtics Best Bets for Tonight:
- The Boston Celtics have hit the Team Total Under in 49 of their last 72 games (+23.05 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Boston Celtics have hit the 1H Moneyline in 72 of their last 100 games (+12.82 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Boston Celtics have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 40 away games (+12.70 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Boston Celtics have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 28 of their last 42 away games (+11.90 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Boston Celtics have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 14 games (+10.80 Units / 44% ROI)
Heat Best Bets for Tonight:
- The Miami Heat have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 22 of their last 36 games (+12.35 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 36 of their last 57 games (+12.25 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Moneyline in 18 of their last 31 games (+10.65 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have covered the 1Q Spread in 21 of their last 32 games (+9.40 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have covered the 2Q Spread in 50 of their last 89 games (+8.57 Units / 8% ROI)
Boston Celtics Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:
Against the spread this NBA season, the Celtics have gone 29-36 (-10.6 Units / -14.6% ROI).
- 47-19 against the Moneyline (-35.3 Units / -9.79% ROI)
- 30-36 against the Over for game total points (-9.6 Units / -13.22% ROI)
- 36-30 against the Under for game total points (+3 Units / 4.13% ROI)
Miami Heat Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:
Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 29-35 (-9.5 Units / -13.28% ROI).
- 29-36 against the Moneyline (-16.25 Units / -14.61% ROI)
- 34-31 against the Over for game total points (-0.1 Units / -0.14% ROI)
- 31-34 against the Under for game total points (-6.4 Units / -8.95% ROI)
Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Heat:
- The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 21 of their last 57 games (-20.13 Units / -31% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 34 games (-19.60 Units / -36% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 14 of their last 44 games (-18.77 Units / -35% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only covered the 4Q Spread in 7 of their last 27 games (-15.20 Units / -48% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the Game Total Under in 38 of their last 86 games (-14.80 Units / -16% ROI)
Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Celtics:
- The Boston Celtics have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 39 of their last 100 games (-56.19 Units / -35% ROI)
- The Boston Celtics have only hit the Moneyline in 70 of their last 96 games (-49.90 Units / -9% ROI)
- The Boston Celtics have only covered the 4Q Spread in 34 of their last 100 games (-40.55 Units / -35% ROI)
- The Boston Celtics have only hit the Team Total Over in 34 of their last 95 games (-36.03 Units / -32% ROI)
- The Boston Celtics have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 42 of their last 100 games (-22.95 Units / -20% ROI)
Jump to:
- Keys to Winning for the Boston Celtics
- Keys to Winning for the Miami Heat
- Player Injuries for Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat
- Boston Celtics Offensive stats
- Miami Heat Offensive stats
- Boston Celtics Defensive stats
- Miami Heat Defensive stats
Boston Celtics: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat
The Celtics are 29-7 (.806) when attempting 15 or less free throws since the start of the 2023-24 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .441
The Celtics were 36-9 (.800) when shooting 80% or better from the free throw line last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .543
The Celtics are 24-7 (.774) when scoring fewer than 10 second chance points since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .464
The Celtics were 55-16 (.775) when allowing 12 or more offensive rebounds last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .511
Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Boston Celtics
The Heat are 3-15 (.167) when allowing their opponent to shoot 40% or better from three this season — 10th-worst in the NBA. The Celtics have shot 37% from three this season — 6th-best in the NBA.
The Heat are 7-1 (.875) when winning the rebounding margin by 10 or more this season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .742
The Heat are 22-13 (.629) when scoring 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2023-24 season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .550
The Heat are 21-50 (.296) when allowing 110 or more points since the start of the 2023-24 season — 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .342
Boston Celtics Offensive Stats & Trends
The Celtics have made 17.1 three-pointers per game since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.1
The Celtics have made 17.8 three-pointers per game this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.5
The Celtics made 16.5 three-pointers per game last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.8
The Celtics have made 16.6 three-pointers per game on the road since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.9
Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends
The Heat have averaged 5.8 fast break points per game (849 points/147 games) in the second half since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.1
The Heat have averaged 5.5 second chance points per game (358 points/65 games) in the first half this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 6.9
The Heat averaged 53.3 points per game (4,368 points/82 games) in the second half last season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.5
The Heat have averaged 11.7 second chance points per game (762 points/65 games) this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.2
Boston Celtics Defensive Stats & Trends
The Celtics averaged 37.9 defensive rebounds per game (3,109 rebounds/82 games) last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2
The Celtics allowed an average of 1.19 points per shot (8,957 points/7,515 shots) last season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 1.28
The Celtics have allowed an average of 1.17 points per shot (8,089 points/6,906 shots) in the first half since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 1.26
The Celtics have averaged 36.5 defensive rebounds per game (2,411 rebounds/66 games) this season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.4
Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends
The Heat averaged 3.4 blocks per game (280 blocks/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1
The Heat have averaged 3.6 blocks per game (523 blocks/147 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1
The Heat have averaged 3.7 blocks per game (243 blocks/65 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.0
The Heat have averaged 3.4 blocks per game (247 blocks/72 games) at home since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.2
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