Celtics vs Nuggets Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Mar. 7

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Mar 07, 2024, 4:31 PM
  • The Nuggets are -1.5 favorites vs. the Celtics
  • Total (Over/Under): 221.5 points
  • Watch the game on TNT | NBSB

The Boston Celtics visit Ball Arena to take on the Denver Nuggets on Thursday. Tipoff is scheduled for 10:00pm EST in Denver, CO.

The Celtics are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -1.5 (+100).

The Celtics vs Nuggets Over/Under is 220.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Celtics are 30-28 against the spread, while the Nuggets are 27-33 against the spread.


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Celtics vs. Nuggets Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Boston Celtics-1.5 +100O 220.5 -110-110
Denver Nuggets +1.5 -120U 220.5 -110-110

Nuggets vs Celtics Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Celtics will win Thursday‘s game with 54.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Celtics and Nuggets.

Nuggets vs Celtics Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Nuggets will cover the spread for Thursday‘s game with 52.1% confidence.


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  • The Boston Celtics have covered the 1H Spread in 45 of their last 64 games (+24.85 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have hit the 1H Moneyline in 26 of their last 30 away games (+20.30 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 25 of their last 33 games (+16.30 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have covered the 1Q Spread in 41 of their last 64 games (+15.45 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 42 of their last 60 games (+14.20 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 63 of their last 96 games (+26.20 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Game Total Under in 60 of their last 95 games (+23.70 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Moneyline in 59 of their last 83 games (+20.95 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 54 of their last 90 games (+15.00 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have covered the 1Q Spread in 45 of their last 75 games (+12.30 Units / 15% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Celtics have gone 30-28 (-0.8 Units / -1.19% ROI).

  • 48-13 against the Moneyline (+9.6 Units / 3.19% ROI)
  • 29-32 against the Over for game total points (-6.2 Units / -9.24% ROI)
  • 32-29 against the Under for game total points (+0.1 Units / 0.15% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Nuggets have gone 27-33 (-9.4 Units / -13.71% ROI).

  • 42-20 against the Moneyline (+9.05 Units / 4.44% ROI)
  • 22-39 against the Over for game total points (-20.9 Units / -30.67% ROI)
  • 39-22 against the Under for game total points (+14.8 Units / 21.7% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 33 of their last 96 games (-37.05 Units / -35% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 95 games (-33.00 Units / -32% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 36 of their last 90 games (-23.60 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only covered the 2Q Spread in 27 of their last 75 games (-22.65 Units / -27% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 34 of their last 75 games (-21.55 Units / -19% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 37 of their last 92 games (-23.50 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 38 of their last 89 games (-19.40 Units / -19% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the Moneyline in 69 of their last 95 games (-19.25 Units / -5% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only covered the 3Q Spread in 35 of their last 84 games (-19.05 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 42 of their last 94 games (-15.30 Units / -15% ROI)

Jump to:

Boston Celtics: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Nuggets

The Celtics are 31-6 (.838) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .565

The Celtics are 14-1 (.933) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .580

The Celtics were 22-1 (.957) when shooting 50% or better from the field last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .733

The Celtics are 27-6 (.818) when scoring more second chance points than their opponent this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .574

Denver Nuggets: Keys to the Game vs. the Boston Celtics

The Nuggets were 15-3 (.833) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .556

The Nuggets are 21-5 (.808) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2022-23 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .565

The Nuggets are 32-11 (.744) when attempting 25 or more free throws since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .550

The Nuggets were 25-4 (.862) when shooting 40% or better from three last season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .702

Injury Report: Nuggets vs. CelticsThursday‘s Game, Mar. 7

  • Vlatko Cancar (Denver Nuggets): Knee, Out
  • Hunter Tyson (Denver Nuggets): Finger, Out
  • Jamal Murray (Denver Nuggets): Lower Leg, Out
  • Boston Celtics – No Injuries Reported

Boston Celtics Offensive Stats & Trends

The Celtics had an assist to turnover ratio of 2.1 (1,087 assists/ 527 TOs) on the road last season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

The Celtics have made 16.2 three-pointers per game this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.8

The Celtics have made 16.1 three-pointers per game since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.5

The Celtics made 16.0 three-pointers per game last season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.3

Denver Nuggets Offensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets shot 50% (3,574/7,088) last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

The Nuggets have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.5 (762 assists/ 305 TOs) at home this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 2.0

The Nuggets shot 51% (1,831/3,563) at home last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

The Nuggets have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.5 (822 assists/ 327 TOs) in the first half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 2.0

Boston Celtics Defensive Stats & Trends

The Celtics have averaged 38.9 defensive rebounds per game (2,064 rebounds/53 games) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.1

The Celtics have averaged 38.3 defensive rebounds per game (5,176 rebounds/135 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Celtics averaged 38.0 defensive rebounds per game (3,112 rebounds/82 games) last season — tied for 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Celtics have averaged 6.6 blocks per game (351 blocks/53 games) this season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.2

Denver Nuggets Defensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets have averaged 6.8 steals per game (365 steals/54 games) this season — tied for 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.4

The Nuggets have blocked 353 shots on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — 9th most among NBA teams

The Nuggets allowed 18.0 points per game (1,150 points/64 games) in close and late situations last season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 20.9

The Nuggets allowed opponents to shoot 33% from three (449/1,382) at home last season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 36%


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.