Grizzlies vs Nuggets Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Apr. 11

  • The are favorites vs. the
  • Total (Over/Under): Total points
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The Memphis Grizzlies visit Ball Arena to take on the Denver Nuggets on Friday. Tipoff is scheduled for 9:00pm EDT in Denver, CO, CO.

The are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at ().

The Grizzlies vs Nuggets Over/Under is total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Grizzlies are 40-39 against the spread, while the Nuggets are 36-43 against the spread.


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Grizzlies vs. Nuggets Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Memphis Grizzlies O
Denver Nuggets U

Nuggets vs Grizzlies Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Nuggets will win Friday‘s game with 79.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Grizzlies and Nuggets.

Nuggets vs Grizzlies Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Grizzlies will cover the spread for Friday‘s game with 55.2% confidence.


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  • The Memphis Grizzlies have hit the Team Total Over in 49 of their last 82 games (+10.85 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Memphis Grizzlies have covered the 3Q Spread in 45 of their last 76 games (+10.55 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Memphis Grizzlies have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 38 of their last 62 games (+10.45 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Memphis Grizzlies have hit the Moneyline in 45 of their last 75 games (+10.40 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Memphis Grizzlies have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 24 of their last 36 games (+10.30 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 29 of their last 38 games at home (+18.55 Units / 42% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Game Total Over in 48 of their last 78 games (+15.00 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1H Moneyline in 29 of their last 45 games (+12.95 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 26 of their last 38 games at home (+12.25 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 24 of their last 38 games (+9.95 Units / 14% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Grizzlies have gone 40-39 (-2.9 Units / -3.3% ROI).

  • 47-33 against the Moneyline (+2.9 Units / 1.63% ROI)
  • 45-35 against the Over for game total points (+6.5 Units / 7.39% ROI)
  • 35-45 against the Under for game total points (-14.5 Units / -16.48% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Nuggets have gone 36-43 (-11.3 Units / -12.84% ROI).

  • 48-32 against the Moneyline (-1.7 Units / -0.7% ROI)
  • 48-32 against the Over for game total points (+12.8 Units / 14.55% ROI)
  • 32-48 against the Under for game total points (-20.8 Units / -23.64% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 28 of their last 78 games (-29.20 Units / -33% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only covered the 1H Spread in 37 of their last 92 games (-25.35 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only covered the 4Q Spread in 38 of their last 94 games (-24.90 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 78 games (-22.80 Units / -27% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 30 of their last 78 games (-22.18 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Memphis Grizzlies have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 12 of their last 46 games (-40.00 Units / -49% ROI)
  • The Memphis Grizzlies have only covered the 1H Spread in 14 of their last 48 games (-25.20 Units / -45% ROI)
  • The Memphis Grizzlies have only hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 82 games (-22.97 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Memphis Grizzlies have only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 33 of their last 82 games (-19.65 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Memphis Grizzlies have only hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 24 of their last 62 games (-19.55 Units / -27% ROI)

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Memphis Grizzlies: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Nuggets

The Grizzlies are 7-1 (.875) when scoring fewer than 10 second chance points this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .455

The Grizzlies were 3-27 (.100) when allowing their opponent to shoot 40% or better from three last season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .317

The Grizzlies are 44-32 (.579) when grabbing 12 or more offensive rebounds this season — tied for 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .495

The Grizzlies are undefeated (10-0) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .622

Denver Nuggets: Keys to the Game vs. the Memphis Grizzlies

The Nuggets are 47-16 (.746) when scoring 110 or more points this season — 10th-best in the NBA. The Grizzlies have allowed 117.1 points per game this season — 6th-worst in the NBA.

The Nuggets are 18-9 (.667) when they win the turnover margin this season — T-8th-best in the NBA. The Grizzlies have averaged 15.8 turnovers per game this season — 3rd-highest in the NBA.

The Nuggets are winless (0-12) when scoring fewer than 100 points since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .089

The Nuggets are 52-11 (.825) when shooting 40% or better from three since the start of the 2023-24 season — 5th-best in the NBA. The Grizzlies have allowed opponents to shoot 37% from three since the start of the 2023-24 season — 4th-worst in the NBA.

Memphis Grizzlies Offensive Stats & Trends

The Grizzlies shot 43% (3,145/7,230) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

The Grizzlies had a TS% of 48% last season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 52%

The Grizzlies shot 43% (1,551/3,600) at home last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

The Grizzlies had an eFG% of 51% last season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 55%

Denver Nuggets Offensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets have averaged 59.2 points in the paint per game (2,370 points/40 games) on the road this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48.7

The Nuggets have averaged 20.0 fast break points per game (1,601 points/80 games) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 15.5

The Nuggets have averaged 11.1 fast break points per game (887 points/80 games) in the first half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 8.0

The Nuggets have averaged 30.9 points in the paint per game (2,474 points/80 games) in the first half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 24.6

Memphis Grizzlies Defensive Stats & Trends

The Grizzlies averaged 34.0 defensive rebounds per game (2,785 rebounds/82 games) last season — tied for 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Grizzlies forced 16.2 turnovers per game (663 turnovers/41 games) at home last season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 13.6

The Grizzlies have averaged 36.8 defensive rebounds per game (2,945 rebounds/80 games) this season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.3

The Grizzlies averaged 6.1 blocks per game (501 blocks/82 games) last season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

Denver Nuggets Defensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets averaged 35.9 defensive rebounds per game (2,946 rebounds/82 games) last season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Nuggets have averaged 36.4 defensive rebounds per game (5,896 rebounds/162 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Nuggets have averaged 36.9 defensive rebounds per game (2,950 rebounds/80 games) this season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.3

The Nuggets averaged 7.1 steals per game (585 steals/82 games) last season — tied for 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5


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