- The – are favorites vs. the –
- Total (Over/Under): Total points
- Watch the game on SUN | FDSE
The Atlanta Hawks visit Kaseya Center to take on the Miami Heat on Thursday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EDT in Miami, FL, FL, USA.
The – are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at ().
The Hawks vs Heat Over/Under is total points for the game.
So far this NBA season, the Hawks are 36-36 against the spread, while the Heat are 33-38 against the spread.
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Hawks vs. Heat Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Atlanta Hawks | O | ||
| Miami Heat | U |
Heat vs Hawks Prediction for Tonight’s Game:
The winning team model predicts the Heat will win Thursday‘s game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Hawks and Heat.
Heat vs Hawks Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Heat will cover the spread for Thursday‘s game with 60.5% confidence.
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Hawks Best Bets for Tonight:
- The Atlanta Hawks have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 52 of their last 84 games (+16.10 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Atlanta Hawks have hit the Game Total Over in 51 of their last 84 games (+15.80 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Atlanta Hawks have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 64 games (+15.80 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Atlanta Hawks have covered the 4Q Spread in 42 of their last 67 games (+15.70 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Atlanta Hawks have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 23 of their last 35 games (+13.90 Units / 33% ROI)
Heat Best Bets for Tonight:
- The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Moneyline in 23 of their last 38 games (+16.25 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 26 of their last 43 games (+13.40 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 40 of their last 64 games (+12.85 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have covered the 1H Spread in 25 of their last 38 games (+11.20 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have covered the 1Q Spread in 25 of their last 39 games (+9.95 Units / 22% ROI)
Atlanta Hawks Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:
Against the spread this NBA season, the Hawks have gone 36-36 (-3.6 Units / -4.55% ROI).
- 35-37 against the Moneyline (+10.75 Units / 9.94% ROI)
- 42-29 against the Over for game total points (+10.1 Units / 12.75% ROI)
- 29-42 against the Under for game total points (-17.2 Units / -21.72% ROI)
Miami Heat Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:
Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 33-38 (-8.8 Units / -11.1% ROI).
- 31-41 against the Moneyline (-18.65 Units / -15.54% ROI)
- 37-35 against the Over for game total points (-1.5 Units / -1.89% ROI)
- 35-37 against the Under for game total points (-5.7 Units / -7.2% ROI)
Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Heat:
- The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 16 of their last 51 games (-22.27 Units / -36% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 41 games (-22.00 Units / -35% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 24 of their last 64 games (-21.53 Units / -29% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only covered the 4Q Spread in 9 of their last 34 games (-19.05 Units / -48% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 28 of their last 68 games (-18.35 Units / -23% ROI)
Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Hawks:
- The Atlanta Hawks have only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 31 of their last 84 games (-28.25 Units / -30% ROI)
- The Atlanta Hawks have only hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 84 games (-24.10 Units / -26% ROI)
- The Atlanta Hawks have only covered the 3Q Spread in 30 of their last 74 games (-19.68 Units / -23% ROI)
- The Atlanta Hawks have only hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 36 of their last 84 games (-18.90 Units / -20% ROI)
- The Atlanta Hawks have only hit the Team Total Under in 37 of their last 84 games (-16.50 Units / -17% ROI)
Jump to:
- Keys to Winning for the Atlanta Hawks
- Keys to Winning for the Miami Heat
- Player Injuries for Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat
- Atlanta Hawks Offensive stats
- Miami Heat Offensive stats
- Atlanta Hawks Defensive stats
- Miami Heat Defensive stats
Atlanta Hawks: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat
The Hawks are 11-24 (.314) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points since the start of the 2023-24 season — 4th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .538
The Hawks were 5-12 (.294) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points last season — 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .532
The Hawks were 19-25 (.432) when scoring 15 or more second chance points last season — 8th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .549
The Hawks are 18-13 (.581) when allowing 15 or more second chance points this season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .446
Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Atlanta Hawks
The Heat are 6-18 (.250) when attempting 15 or less free throws since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for 4th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .438
The Heat are 8-30 (.211) when allowing 110 or more points this season — 8th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .344
The Heat were 19-10 (.655) when allowing 15 or more second chance points last season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .448
The Heat are 18-22 (.450) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points since the start of the 2023-24 season — 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .538
Atlanta Hawks Offensive Stats & Trends
The Hawks averaged 5.5 fast break points per game (454 points/82 games) in the second half last season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 6.8
The Hawks averaged 15.8 second chance points per game (1,295 points/82 games) last season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.8
The Hawks have averaged 55.2 points in the paint per game (3,976 points/72 games) this season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48.9
The Hawks have averaged 16.5 fast break points per game (1,190 points/72 games) this season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 15.5
Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends
The Heat have averaged 5.8 fast break points per game (891 points/154 games) in the second half since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.1
The Heat shot 43% (413/964) in close and late situations last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 46%
The Heat have averaged 1.19 points per shot (1,061 points/888 shots) in close and late situations this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.31
The Heat have averaged 11.6 second chance points per game (1,783 points/154 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.0
Atlanta Hawks Defensive Stats & Trends
The Hawks allowed opponents to shoot 41% from three (571/1,405) in the second half last season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 36%
The Hawks have averaged 9.8 steals per game (706 steals/72 games) this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 8.2
The Hawks averaged 4.5 blocks per game (369 blocks/82 games) last season — tied for 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1
The Hawks have averaged 34.6 defensive rebounds per game (5,336 rebounds/154 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2
Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends
The Heat have averaged 3.5 blocks per game (270 blocks/77 games) at home since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1
The Heat have averaged 3.8 blocks per game (276 blocks/72 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9
The Heat have averaged 3.6 blocks per game (556 blocks/154 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.0
The Heat averaged 3.4 blocks per game (280 blocks/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1
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