- The Bucks are -7.5 favorites vs. the Heat
- Total (Over/Under): 224.5 points
- Watch the game on TNT | truTV | Max
The Miami Heat visit Fiserv Forum to take on the Milwaukee Bucks on Thursday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EST in Milwaukee, WI, WI, USA.
The Bucks are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -6.5 (-110).
The Heat vs Bucks Over/Under is 225.5 total points for the game.
So far this NBA season, the Heat are 18-24 against the spread, while the Bucks are 20-21 against the spread.
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Heat vs. Bucks Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Miami Heat | +6.5 -110 | O 225.5 -110 | +220 |
| Milwaukee Bucks | -6.5 -110 | U 225.5 -110 | -275 |
Bucks vs Heat Prediction for Tonight’s Game:
The winning team model predicts the Bucks will win Thursday‘s game with 79.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Heat and Bucks.
Bucks vs Heat Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Bucks will cover the spread for Thursday‘s game with 61.7% confidence.
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Heat Best Bets for Tonight:
- The Miami Heat have covered the 2Q Spread in 27 of their last 39 away games (+16.45 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 43 away games (+16.15 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Moneyline in 22 of their last 36 away games (+12.80 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 28 of their last 43 away games (+12.05 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 25 of their last 42 away games (+11.38 Units / 23% ROI)
Bucks Best Bets for Tonight:
- The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the Team Total Under in 48 of their last 84 games (+9.10 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Bucks have covered the 1H Spread in 19 of their last 29 games at home (+8.50 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 34 of their last 59 games (+7.55 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 35 of their last 60 games (+7.50 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the 1H Moneyline in 23 of their last 29 games at home (+7.15 Units / 11% ROI)
Miami Heat Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:
Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 18-24 (-8.4 Units / -18.18% ROI).
- 21-21 against the Moneyline (-3.3 Units / -4.33% ROI)
- 24-18 against the Over for game total points (+4.2 Units / 9.09% ROI)
- 18-24 against the Under for game total points (-8.4 Units / -18.18% ROI)
Milwaukee Bucks Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:
Against the spread this NBA season, the Bucks have gone 20-21 (-3.1 Units / -6.71% ROI).
- 25-17 against the Moneyline (-12.15 Units / -10.82% ROI)
- 21-21 against the Over for game total points (-2.1 Units / -4.55% ROI)
- 21-21 against the Under for game total points (-2.1 Units / -4.55% ROI)
Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Bucks:
- The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the Moneyline in 45 of their last 86 games (-58.90 Units / -24% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Bucks have only covered the 4Q Spread in 34 of their last 87 games (-25.05 Units / -25% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Bucks have only covered the 3Q Spread in 34 of their last 86 games (-23.40 Units / -24% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the Team Total Over in 35 of their last 86 games (-22.05 Units / -22% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 37 of their last 86 games (-16.75 Units / -17% ROI)
Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Heat:
- The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 35 of their last 88 games (-22.98 Units / -23% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only covered the 1Q Spread in 30 of their last 74 games (-19.75 Units / -23% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 63 games (-16.80 Units / -24% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 39 of their last 88 games (-16.35 Units / -16% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 63 games (-15.10 Units / -21% ROI)
Jump to:
- Keys to Winning for the Miami Heat
- Keys to Winning for the Milwaukee Bucks
- Player Injuries for Miami Heat vs. Milwaukee Bucks
- Miami Heat Offensive stats
- Milwaukee Bucks Offensive stats
- Miami Heat Defensive stats
- Milwaukee Bucks Defensive stats
Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Milwaukee Bucks
The Heat are 3-12 (.200) when allowing 15 or more three-pointers this season — T-4th-worst in the NBA. The Bucks have made 14.2 three-pointers per game this season — T-7th-highest in the NBA.
The Heat are 5-13 (.278) when forcing fewer than 5 steals since the start of the 2023-24 season — 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .385
The Heat are undefeated (13-0) when forcing their opponent to shoot 40% or worse from the field since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: .901
The Heat were 19-10 (.655) when allowing 15 or more second chance points last season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .448
Milwaukee Bucks: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat
The Bucks were 25-10 (.714) when shooting 80% or better from the free throw line last season — 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .543
The Bucks are 20-6 (.769) when scoring 110 or more points this season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .662
The Bucks are 14-6 (.700) when their opponent attempts fewer than 15 free throws since the start of the 2023-24 season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .560
The Bucks are 52-12 (.812) when scoring 15 or more fastbreak points since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .564
Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends
The Heat averaged 11.1 second chance points per game (454 points/41 games) on the road last season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.6
The Heat had an eFG% of 49% in close and late situations last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 53%
The Heat averaged 53.3 points per game (4,368 points/82 games) in the second half last season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.5
The Heat averaged 5.4 second chance points per game (441 points/82 games) in the first half last season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 6.6
Milwaukee Bucks Offensive Stats & Trends
The Bucks are shooting 73% from the free throw line (667/910) this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 78%
The Bucks averaged 1.39 points per shot (4,829 points/3,483 shots) in the second half last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.31
The Bucks have averaged 5.4 fast break points per game (222 points/41 games) in the second half this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5
The Bucks have averaged 14.5 offensive rebounds per game (594 rebounds/41 games) this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 17.0
Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends
The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (603 blocks/186 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9
The Heat averaged 3.4 blocks per game (280 blocks/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1
The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (302 blocks/93 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9
The Heat have averaged 3.5 blocks per game (439 blocks/124 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1
Milwaukee Bucks Defensive Stats & Trends
The Bucks have averaged 37.8 defensive rebounds per game (1,549 rebounds/41 games) this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.4
The Bucks have averaged 38.2 defensive rebounds per game (7,135 rebounds/187 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.3
The Bucks averaged 6.8 steals per game (558 steals/82 games) last season — tied for 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5
The Bucks have averaged 37.3 defensive rebounds per game (4,584 rebounds/123 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.3
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