Heat vs Hawks Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Apr. 9

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Apr 09, 2024, 4:30 PM
  • The Heat are -3.5 favorites vs. the Hawks
  • Total (Over/Under): 219.5 points
  • Watch the game on BSSE | SUN

The Miami Heat visit State Farm Arena to take on the Atlanta Hawks on Tuesday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EDT in Atlanta, GA.

The Heat are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-115).

The Heat vs Hawks Over/Under is 219.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Heat are 38-38 against the spread, while the Hawks are 28-50 against the spread.


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Heat vs. Hawks Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Miami Heat-3.5 -115O 219.5 -110-165
Atlanta Hawks +3.5 -105U 219.5 -110+135

Hawks vs Heat Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Heat will win Tuesday‘s game with 69.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Heat and Hawks.

Hawks vs Heat Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Heat will cover the spread for Tuesday‘s game with 60.8% confidence.


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  • The Miami Heat have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 47 away games (+21.15 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Game Total Under in 54 of their last 87 games (+17.70 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 33 of their last 48 games (+16.80 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 56 of their last 96 games (+14.70 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 53 of their last 97 games (+13.75 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Hawks have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 30 of their last 41 games at home (+17.45 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Hawks have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 31 of their last 44 games (+15.85 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Hawks have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+15.10 Units / 65% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Hawks have hit the Team Total Over in 50 of their last 82 games (+12.70 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Hawks have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 42 games at home (+12.60 Units / 27% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 38-38 (-3.8 Units / -4.43% ROI).

  • 43-35 against the Moneyline (-1.5 Units / -1.01% ROI)
  • 32-46 against the Over for game total points (-18.6 Units / -21.68% ROI)
  • 46-32 against the Under for game total points (+10.8 Units / 12.59% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Hawks have gone 28-50 (-27 Units / -31.47% ROI).

  • 36-42 against the Moneyline (-5.75 Units / -4.4% ROI)
  • 42-34 against the Over for game total points (+4.65 Units / 5.49% ROI)
  • 34-42 against the Under for game total points (-12.2 Units / -14.4% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Hawks have only covered the Spread in 31 of their last 86 games (-29.50 Units / -31% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Hawks have only covered the 3Q Spread in 24 of their last 72 games (-29.00 Units / -35% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Hawks have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 32 of their last 83 games (-26.00 Units / -27% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Hawks have only hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 86 games (-24.60 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Hawks have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 46 games (-22.40 Units / -43% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 37 of their last 98 games (-27.85 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 37 of their last 94 games (-26.40 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 87 games (-26.40 Units / -28% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 37 of their last 89 games (-21.50 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the Team Total Over in 16 of their last 47 games (-20.10 Units / -37% ROI)

Jump to:

Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Atlanta Hawks

The Heat were 10-1 (.909) when assisting on 30 or more field goals last season — 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .729

The Heat were 19-9 (.679) when scoring 15 or more second chance points last season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .531

The Heat are 27-14 (.659) when they win the turnover margin this season — tied for 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .549

The Heat are 2-6 (.250) when shooting 70% or worse from the free throw line this season — 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .404

Atlanta Hawks: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The Hawks were 35-28 (.556) when allowing 12 or more offensive rebounds last season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .507

The Hawks are 5-9 (.357) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points this season — 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .536

The Hawks are winless (0-11) when shooting 40% or worse from the field since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .121

The Hawks were 5-21 (.192) when allowing their opponent to shoot 40% or better from three last season — 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .297

Injury Report: Hawks vs. HeatTuesday‘s Game, Apr. 9

  • Onyeka Okongwu (Atlanta Hawks): Toe, Out
  • Mouhamed Gueye (Atlanta Hawks): Back, Game Time Decision
  • Tyler Herro (Miami Heat): Knee, Game Time Decision
  • Thomas Bryant (Miami Heat): Not Injury Related, Game Time Decision
  • Josh Richardson (Miami Heat): Shoulder, Out
  • Dru Smith (Miami Heat): Knee, Out For Season
  • Orlando Robinson (Miami Heat): Back, Out
  • Terry Rozier (Miami Heat): Knee, Out

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat are shooting 43% (398/932) in close and late situations this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 46%

The Heat averaged 107.5 points per game (4,408 points/41 games) on the road last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 113.4

The Heat averaged 52.5 points per game (4,308 points/82 games) in the second half last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.1

The Heat averaged 11.5 fast break points per game (940 points/82 games) last season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.0

Atlanta Hawks Offensive Stats & Trends

The Hawks have averaged 5.6 fast break points per game (436 points/78 games) in the second half this season — tied for 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 6.8

The Hawks averaged 1.28 points per shot (9,711 points/7,574 shots) last season — tied for 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.30

The Hawks averaged 14.3 second chance points per game (1,174 points/82 games) last season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.6

The Hawks averaged 24% free throw attempts for every field goal attempt (1,850 free throw attempts/7,574 field goal attempts) last season — 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 27%

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (510 blocks/160 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Heat averaged 3.0 blocks per game (243 blocks/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Heat have averaged 3.1 blocks per game (248 blocks/79 games) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.0

The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (262 blocks/81 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

Atlanta Hawks Defensive Stats & Trends

The Hawks have averaged 34.3 defensive rebounds per game (2,675 rebounds/78 games) this season — tied for 8th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Hawks have allowed opponents to shoot 41% from three (543/1,336) in the second half this season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 36%

The Hawks have averaged 4.6 blocks per game (359 blocks/78 games) this season — tied for 8th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

The Hawks have allowed an eFG% of 59% in the second half this season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 55%


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