Heat vs Hawks Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Dec. 28

  • The Hawks are -2.5 favorites vs. the Heat
  • Total (Over/Under): 225.5 points
  • Watch the game on NBAt | FDSE | SUN

The Miami Heat visit State Farm Arena to take on the Atlanta Hawks on Saturday. Tipoff is scheduled for 3:00pm EST in Atlanta, GA.

The are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at ().

The Heat vs Hawks Over/Under is total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Heat are 13-15 against the spread, while the Hawks are 13-18 against the spread.


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Heat vs. Hawks Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Miami Heat O
Atlanta Hawks U

Hawks vs Heat Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Hawks will win Saturday‘s game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Heat and Hawks.

Hawks vs Heat Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Heat will cover the spread for Saturday‘s game with 53.5% confidence.


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  • The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 55 of their last 87 games (+20.55 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have covered the 2Q Spread in 35 of their last 55 games (+14.22 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 35 away games (+12.20 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have covered the 4Q Spread in 23 of their last 33 games (+11.56 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 22 of their last 33 games (+11.07 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Hawks have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 47 games (+17.60 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Hawks have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 48 games (+16.65 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Hawks have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 44 of their last 73 games (+12.93 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Hawks have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 41 of their last 67 games (+12.15 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Hawks have hit the Team Total Over in 25 of their last 37 games at home (+11.25 Units / 26% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 13-15 (-3.5 Units / -11.36% ROI).

  • 15-13 against the Moneyline (+0.5 Units / 0.97% ROI)
  • 15-13 against the Over for game total points (+0.7 Units / 2.27% ROI)
  • 13-15 against the Under for game total points (-3.5 Units / -11.36% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Hawks have gone 13-18 (-6.8 Units / -19.94% ROI).

  • 16-15 against the Moneyline (+10.65 Units / 22.26% ROI)
  • 20-11 against the Over for game total points (+7.9 Units / 23.17% ROI)
  • 11-20 against the Under for game total points (-11 Units / -32.26% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Hawks have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 27 of their last 73 games (-23.75 Units / -28% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Hawks have only hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 71 games (-23.50 Units / -30% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Hawks have only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 27 of their last 71 games (-22.05 Units / -27% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Hawks have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 31 of their last 79 games (-20.00 Units / -17% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Hawks have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 34 of their last 82 games (-19.95 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 30 of their last 87 games (-32.68 Units / -33% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only covered the 1Q Spread in 30 of their last 78 games (-24.10 Units / -27% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the Team Total Over in 36 of their last 86 games (-20.90 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 36 of their last 87 games (-20.35 Units / -20% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 30 of their last 78 games (-19.85 Units / -18% ROI)

Jump to:

Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Atlanta Hawks

The Heat are 25-1 (.962) when forcing an eFG of 50% or worse since the start of the 2023-24 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .821

The Heat are 26-15 (.634) when allowing 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2023-24 season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .449

The Heat are 18-4 (.818) when assisting on 30 or more field goals since the start of the 2023-24 season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .697

The Heat were 19-10 (.655) when allowing 15 or more second chance points last season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .448

Atlanta Hawks: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The Hawks are 7-11 (.389) when scoring fewer than 10 second chance points since the start of the 2023-24 season — 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .464

The Hawks were 2-20 (.091) when their eFG is 50% or worse last season — 8th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .178

The Hawks were 14-20 (.412) when they lose the turnover margin last season — 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .451

The Hawks were 5-7 (.417) when scoring fewer than 10 second chance points last season — 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .466

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat shot 43% (413/964) in close and late situations last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 46%

The Heat have averaged 53.2 points per game (9,892 points/186 games) in the second half since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.4

The Heat have averaged 6.0 second chance points per game (664 points/110 games) in the second half since the start of the 2023-24 season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.1

The Heat averaged 11.5 second chance points per game (943 points/82 games) last season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.8

Atlanta Hawks Offensive Stats & Trends

The Hawks have averaged 55.7 points in the paint per game (1,726 points/31 games) this season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48.1

The Hawks have 24.4 free throw attempts per game this season — tied for 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 22.0

The Hawks have averaged 14.9 second chance points per game (461 points/31 games) this season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.8

The Hawks made 13.7 three-pointers per game last season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.8

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (603 blocks/186 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (302 blocks/93 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Heat averaged 3.4 blocks per game (280 blocks/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

The Heat have averaged 3.5 blocks per game (192 blocks/55 games) on the road since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.0

Atlanta Hawks Defensive Stats & Trends

The Hawks have allowed 16.1 made three-pointers per game this season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 13.6

The Hawks have allowed opponents to shoot 40% from three (800/2,015) in the second half since the start of the 2023-24 season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 36%

The Hawks allowed opponents to shoot 41% from three (571/1,405) in the second half last season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 36%

The Hawks have averaged 8.2 steals per game (930 steals/113 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.7


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