Heat vs Knicks Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Mar. 17

  • The Knicks are -7.5 favorites vs. the Heat
  • Total (Over/Under): 209.5 points
  • Watch the game on ESPN | SUN | MSG

The Miami Heat visit Madison Square Garden to take on the New York Knicks on Monday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EDT in New York, NY, USA.

The Knicks are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -7.5 (-110).

The Heat vs Knicks Over/Under is 209.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Heat are 29-37 against the spread, while the Knicks are 29-35 against the spread.


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Heat vs. Knicks Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Miami Heat+7.5 -110O 209.5 -105+240
New York Knicks -7.5 -110U 209.5 -115-300

Knicks vs Heat Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Knicks will win Monday‘s game with 79.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Heat and Knicks.

Knicks vs Heat Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Heat will cover the spread for Monday‘s game with 53.1% confidence.


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  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Moneyline in 26 of their last 44 away games (+14.95 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 37 of their last 59 games (+12.10 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 14 of their last 20 away games (+11.65 Units / 49% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have covered the 1Q Spread in 16 of their last 20 away games (+11.40 Units / 49% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have covered the 2Q Spread in 28 of their last 46 away games (+10.55 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The New York Knicks have hit the Game Total Over in 56 of their last 94 games (+15.30 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The New York Knicks have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 54 of their last 91 games (+14.11 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The New York Knicks have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 28 of their last 44 games at home (+9.85 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The New York Knicks have covered the 2Q Spread in 35 of their last 59 games (+8.40 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The New York Knicks have covered the 3Q Spread in 52 of their last 92 games (+8.22 Units / 8% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 29-37 (-11.7 Units / -15.86% ROI).

  • 29-38 against the Moneyline (-18.25 Units / -16.12% ROI)
  • 34-33 against the Over for game total points (-2.3 Units / -3.12% ROI)
  • 33-34 against the Under for game total points (-4.4 Units / -5.97% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Knicks have gone 29-35 (-9.5 Units / -13.09% ROI).

  • 42-24 against the Moneyline (-6.5 Units / -3.24% ROI)
  • 35-30 against the Over for game total points (+2 Units / 2.76% ROI)
  • 30-35 against the Under for game total points (-8.55 Units / -11.77% ROI)
  • The New York Knicks have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 40 of their last 93 games (-35.10 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The New York Knicks have only covered the 1Q Spread in 32 of their last 89 games (-30.45 Units / -30% ROI)
  • The New York Knicks have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 35 of their last 91 games (-26.45 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The New York Knicks have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 48 of their last 93 games (-26.38 Units / -13% ROI)
  • The New York Knicks have only hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 94 games (-24.65 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 36 games (-21.60 Units / -38% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 14 of their last 46 games (-20.77 Units / -37% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 22 of their last 59 games (-20.28 Units / -30% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only covered the 4Q Spread in 7 of their last 29 games (-17.60 Units / -52% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 40 away games (-17.10 Units / -37% ROI)

Jump to:

Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the New York Knicks

The Heat are 27-12 (.692) when forcing 10 or more steals since the start of the 2023-24 season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .588

The Heat are 33-4 (.892) when forcing an eFG of 50% or worse since the start of the 2023-24 season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .819

The Heat are undefeated (16-0) when forcing their opponent to shoot 40% or worse from the field since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: .896

The Heat were 19-10 (.655) when allowing 15 or more second chance points last season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .448

New York Knicks: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The Knicks are 31-2 (.939) when assisting on 30 or more field goals since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .700

The Knicks were undefeated (10-0) when assisting on 30 or more field goals last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .697

The Knicks were 14-3 (.824) when their opponent attempts fewer than 15 free throws last season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .544

The Knicks are 68-29 (.701) when winning the rebounding margin since the start of the 2023-24 season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .636

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 52.9 points per game (7,889 points/149 games) in the second half since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.4

The Heat have averaged 11.7 second chance points per game (783 points/67 games) this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.1

The Heat have averaged 5.8 fast break points per game (861 points/149 games) in the second half since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.1

The Heat shot 43% (413/964) in close and late situations last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 46%

New York Knicks Offensive Stats & Trends

The Knicks averaged 8.6 second chance points per game (706 points/82 games) in the first half last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 6.6

The Knicks averaged 24.4 assists per game (1,998 assists/82 games) last season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 26.7

The Knicks have an eFG% of 56% this season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 54%

The Knicks have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.0 (1,795 assists/ 876 TOs) this season — tied for 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 3.7 blocks per game (251 blocks/67 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.0

The Heat have averaged 3.4 blocks per game (251 blocks/73 games) at home since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.2

The Heat averaged 3.4 blocks per game (280 blocks/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

The Heat have averaged 3.6 blocks per game (531 blocks/149 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

New York Knicks Defensive Stats & Trends

The Knicks have averaged 3.9 blocks per game (259 blocks/66 games) this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.0

The Knicks have averaged 3.9 blocks per game (294 blocks/75 games) on the road since the start of the 2023-24 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.0

The Knicks averaged 4.1 blocks per game (336 blocks/82 games) last season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

The Knicks have averaged 4.1 blocks per game (301 blocks/73 games) at home since the start of the 2023-24 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.2


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