- The Heat are -1.5 favorites vs. the Mavericks
- Total (Over/Under): 221.5 points
- Watch the game on KFAA | SUN | WFAA
The Miami Heat visit American Airlines Center to take on the Dallas Mavericks on Thursday. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:30pm EST in Dallas, TX, USA.
The Heat are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -1.5 (-105).
The Heat vs Mavericks Over/Under is 221.5 total points for the game.
So far this NBA season, the Heat are 22-29 against the spread, while the Mavericks are 27-26 against the spread.
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Heat vs. Mavericks Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Miami Heat | -1.5 -105 | O 221.5 -110 | -118 |
| Dallas Mavericks | +1.5 -115 | U 221.5 -110 | -102 |
Mavericks vs Heat Prediction for Tonight’s Game:
The winning team model predicts the Heat will win Thursday‘s game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Heat and Mavericks.
Mavericks vs Heat Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Heat will cover the spread for Thursday‘s game with 51.0% confidence.
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Heat Best Bets for Tonight:
- The Miami Heat have covered the 2Q Spread in 32 of their last 46 away games (+19.20 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Moneyline in 27 of their last 43 away games (+19.00 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 49 away games (+12.55 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 31 of their last 49 away games (+11.65 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 14 away games (+11.50 Units / 68% ROI)
Mavericks Best Bets for Tonight:
- The Dallas Mavericks have hit the Moneyline in 58 of their last 97 games (+18.65 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 34 of their last 49 games at home (+17.85 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Dallas Mavericks have covered the 4Q Spread in 57 of their last 96 games (+16.48 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 33 of their last 49 games at home (+15.80 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Dallas Mavericks have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 49 games at home (+13.30 Units / 25% ROI)
Miami Heat Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:
Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 22-29 (-9.9 Units / -17.31% ROI).
- 25-27 against the Moneyline (-6.9 Units / -7.66% ROI)
- 27-25 against the Over for game total points (-0.5 Units / -0.87% ROI)
- 25-27 against the Under for game total points (-4.7 Units / -8.22% ROI)
Dallas Mavericks Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:
Against the spread this NBA season, the Mavericks have gone 27-26 (-1.6 Units / -2.64% ROI).
- 29-26 against the Moneyline (+7.1 Units / 5.86% ROI)
- 29-26 against the Over for game total points (+0.4 Units / 0.66% ROI)
- 26-29 against the Under for game total points (-5.9 Units / -9.75% ROI)
Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Mavericks:
- The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 20 of their last 49 games at home (-27.75 Units / -34% ROI)
- The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 41 of their last 100 games (-26.22 Units / -23% ROI)
- The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 15 of their last 49 games at home (-23.12 Units / -41% ROI)
- The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 49 games at home (-18.20 Units / -34% ROI)
- The Dallas Mavericks have only covered the 1Q Spread in 18 of their last 49 games at home (-16.65 Units / -30% ROI)
Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Heat:
- The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 36 of their last 88 games (-20.98 Units / -21% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only covered the 1Q Spread in 37 of their last 84 games (-16.25 Units / -17% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only covered the Spread in 35 of their last 82 games (-14.50 Units / -16% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 73 games (-13.10 Units / -16% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 18 of their last 45 away games (-13.10 Units / -25% ROI)
Jump to:
- Keys to Winning for the Miami Heat
- Keys to Winning for the Dallas Mavericks
- Player Injuries for Miami Heat vs. Dallas Mavericks
- Miami Heat Offensive stats
- Dallas Mavericks Offensive stats
- Miami Heat Defensive stats
- Dallas Mavericks Defensive stats
Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Dallas Mavericks
The Heat are 4-14 (.222) when attempting 15 or less free throws since the start of the 2023-24 season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .440
The Heat are 3-12 (.200) when allowing their opponent to shoot 50% or better from the field this season — tied for 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .245
The Heat are 2-13 (.133) when allowing their opponent to shoot 40% or better from three this season — 9th-worst in the NBA. The Mavericks have shot 37% from three this season — 8th-best in the NBA.
The Heat were 14-2 (.875) when assisting on 30 or more field goals last season — tied for 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .697
Dallas Mavericks: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat
The Mavericks are 39-13 (.750) when winning the rebounding margin since the start of the 2023-24 season — T-5th-best in the NBA. The Heat have averaged 50.5 rebounds/game since the start of the 2023-24 season — 6th-lowest in the NBA.
The Mavericks are 15-5 (.750) when making 15 or more three-pointers this season — 10th-best in the NBA. The Heat have allowed 13.8 made three-pointers per game this season — T-8th-worst in the NBA.
The Mavericks are 16-5 (.762) when winning the rebounding margin this season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .631
The Mavericks are 40-10 (.800) when shooting 40% or better from three since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .692
Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends
The Heat have averaged 11.2 second chance points per game (585 points/52 games) this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.0
The Heat have averaged 53.2 points per game (9,892 points/186 games) in the second half since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.4
The Heat have averaged 5.2 second chance points per game (268 points/52 games) in the first half this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 6.8
The Heat averaged 11.1 second chance points per game (454 points/41 games) on the road last season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.6
Dallas Mavericks Offensive Stats & Trends
The Mavericks have averaged 6.0 turnovers per game (1,131 turnovers/188 games) in the second half since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 6.9
The Mavericks had an assist to turnover ratio of 2.5 (240 assists/ 95 TOs) in close and late situations last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8
The Mavericks made 14.7 three-pointers per game last season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.8
The Mavericks averaged 15.4 offensive rebounds per game (1,263 rebounds/82 games) last season — 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 16.2
Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends
The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (302 blocks/93 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9
The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (603 blocks/186 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9
The Heat have averaged 3.6 blocks per game (478 blocks/134 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1
The Heat averaged 3.4 blocks per game (280 blocks/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1
Dallas Mavericks Defensive Stats & Trends
The Mavericks averaged 7.0 steals per game (572 steals/82 games) last season — tied for 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5
The Mavericks have averaged 7.4 steals per game (1,009 steals/137 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.8
The Mavericks have averaged 7.3 steals per game (506 steals/69 games) on the road since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.8
The Mavericks have averaged 7.4 steals per game (503 steals/68 games) at home since the start of the 2023-24 season — 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.8
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