Heat vs Pistons Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Mar. 17

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Mar 17, 2024, 5:30 PM
  • The Heat are -6.5 favorites vs. the Pistons
  • Total (Over/Under): 214.5 points
  • Watch the game on BSDT | SUN

The Miami Heat visit Little Caesars Arena to take on the Detroit Pistons on Sunday. Tipoff is scheduled for 3:00pm EDT in Detroit, MI.

The are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at ().

The Heat vs Pistons Over/Under is total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Heat are 32-33 against the spread, while the Pistons are 32-32 against the spread.


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Heat vs. Pistons Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Miami Heat O
Detroit Pistons U

Pistons vs Heat Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Heat will win Sunday‘s game with 76.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Heat and Pistons.

Pistons vs Heat Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Pistons will cover the spread for Sunday‘s game with 55.2% confidence.


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  • The Miami Heat have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 50 away games (+26.95 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 75 games (+22.50 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 59 of their last 98 games (+19.05 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 28 of their last 36 games (+18.70 Units / 45% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 51 of their last 90 games (+16.60 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 26 of their last 38 games at home (+13.40 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have covered the 4Q Spread in 28 of their last 43 games (+11.05 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games at home (+10.30 Units / 48% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have covered the 1H Spread in 24 of their last 36 games (+10.30 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 16 games (+9.70 Units / 53% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 32-33 (-4.3 Units / -5.92% ROI).

  • 36-30 against the Moneyline (-2.8 Units / -2.38% ROI)
  • 24-42 against the Over for game total points (-22.2 Units / -30.58% ROI)
  • 42-24 against the Under for game total points (+15.6 Units / 21.49% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Pistons have gone 32-32 (-3.2 Units / -4.41% ROI).

  • 12-54 against the Moneyline (-28 Units / -40.14% ROI)
  • 33-32 against the Over for game total points (-2.2 Units / -3.03% ROI)
  • 32-33 against the Under for game total points (-4.3 Units / -5.92% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have only hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 77 games (-35.90 Units / -44% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 30 of their last 77 games (-22.75 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 17 of their last 61 games (-17.35 Units / -28% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have only covered the 2Q Spread in 31 of their last 71 games (-15.25 Units / -19% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 19 of their last 48 games (-14.70 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 35 of their last 98 games (-31.90 Units / -29% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 75 games (-30.00 Units / -36% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 31 of their last 82 games (-26.80 Units / -29% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 41 of their last 99 games (-22.80 Units / -20% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 30 of their last 77 games (-22.70 Units / -26% ROI)

Jump to:

Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Detroit Pistons

The Heat are 22-12 (.647) when they win the turnover margin this season — 9th-best in the NBA. The Pistons have averaged 15.5 turnovers per game this season — T-highest in the NBA.

The Heat are 26-7 (.788) when scoring 110 or more points this season — 6th-best in the NBA. The Pistons have allowed 120.3 points per game this season — 5th-worst in the NBA.

The Heat are winless (0-3) when shooting 70% or worse from the free throw line this season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .394

The Heat were 32-21 (.604) when shooting 80% or better from the free throw line last season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .543

Detroit Pistons: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The Pistons were 4-44 (.083) when they lose the turnover margin last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .460

The Pistons are 9-79 (.102) when they lose the turnover margin since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .459

The Pistons are 7-50 (.123) when scoring fewer second chance points than their opponent since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .444

The Pistons are 4-62 (.061) when losing the rebounding margin since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .361

Injury Report: Pistons vs. HeatSunday‘s Game, Mar. 17

  • Isaiah Stewart (Detroit Pistons): Suspension, Out
  • Quentin Grimes (Detroit Pistons): Knee, Game Time Decision
  • Tyler Herro (Miami Heat): Knee, Game Time Decision
  • Thomas Bryant (Miami Heat): Not Injury Related, Game Time Decision
  • Josh Richardson (Miami Heat): Shoulder, Out
  • Dru Smith (Miami Heat): Knee, Out For Season
  • Orlando Robinson (Miami Heat): Back, Out
  • Terry Rozier (Miami Heat): Knee, Out

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat are shooting 45% (2,537/5,644) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

The Heat have averaged 107.5 points per game (7,092 points/66 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 113.8

The Heat averaged 52.5 points per game (4,308 points/82 games) in the second half last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.1

The Heat averaged 107.5 points per game (4,408 points/41 games) on the road last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 113.4

Detroit Pistons Offensive Stats & Trends

The Pistons had an assist to turnover ratio of 1.4 (886 assists/ 615 TOs) on the road last season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

The Pistons have an assist to turnover ratio of 1.6 (652 assists/ 405 TOs) on the road this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.9

The Pistons had an assist to turnover ratio of 1.5 (1,884 assists/ 1,237 TOs) last season — tied for 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

The Pistons averaged 21.6 assists per game (886 assists/41 games) on the road last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 25.0

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 3.0 blocks per game (201 blocks/66 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (169 blocks/53 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.2

The Heat have averaged 3.1 blocks per game (412 blocks/135 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Heat averaged 3.0 blocks per game (243 blocks/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

Detroit Pistons Defensive Stats & Trends

The Pistons have averaged 5.8 steals per game (303 steals/52 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.4

The Pistons have averaged 34.1 defensive rebounds per game (4,565 rebounds/134 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Pistons averaged 33.6 defensive rebounds per game (2,756 rebounds/82 games) last season — 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Pistons have averaged 6.5 steals per game (877 steals/134 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for 4th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.3


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.