- The Warriors are -9.5 favorites vs. the Heat
- Total (Over/Under): 218.5 points
- Watch the game on SUN | NSBA
The Miami Heat visit Chase Center to take on the Golden State Warriors on Tuesday. Tipoff is scheduled for 10:00pm EST in San Francisco, CA.
The Warriors are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -9.5 (-105).
The Heat vs Warriors Over/Under is 217.5 total points for the game.
So far this NBA season, the Heat are 15-19 against the spread, while the Warriors are 18-17 against the spread.
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Heat vs. Warriors Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Miami Heat | +9.5 -115 | O 217.5 -110 | +310 |
| Golden State Warriors | -9.5 -105 | U 217.5 -110 | -400 |
Warriors vs Heat Prediction for Tonight’s Game:
The winning team model predicts the Warriors will win Tuesday‘s game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Heat and Warriors.
Warriors vs Heat Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Warriors will cover the spread for Tuesday‘s game with 51.0% confidence.
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Heat Best Bets for Tonight:
- The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 54 of their last 87 games (+18.55 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 38 away games (+13.05 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have covered the 2Q Spread in 23 of their last 34 away games (+12.45 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 51 games (+11.10 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 22 of their last 33 away games (+9.45 Units / 25% ROI)
Warriors Best Bets for Tonight:
- The Golden State Warriors have covered the 3Q Spread in 46 of their last 78 games (+12.23 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Golden State Warriors have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 75 games (+12.00 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Golden State Warriors have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 21 of their last 32 games at home (+9.40 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Golden State Warriors have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 29 of their last 47 games (+8.15 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Golden State Warriors have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 23 games (+8.00 Units / 30% ROI)
Miami Heat Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:
Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 15-19 (-5.9 Units / -15.78% ROI).
- 17-17 against the Moneyline (-2.5 Units / -3.97% ROI)
- 20-14 against the Over for game total points (+4.6 Units / 12.3% ROI)
- 14-20 against the Under for game total points (-8 Units / -21.39% ROI)
Golden State Warriors Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:
Against the spread this NBA season, the Warriors have gone 18-17 (-0.8 Units / -2.07% ROI).
- 18-17 against the Moneyline (-9.45 Units / -13.75% ROI)
- 16-19 against the Over for game total points (-4.9 Units / -12.73% ROI)
- 19-16 against the Under for game total points (+1.4 Units / 3.64% ROI)
Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Warriors:
- The Golden State Warriors have only hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 40 games at home (-25.70 Units / -26% ROI)
- The Golden State Warriors have only hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 75 games (-19.50 Units / -24% ROI)
- The Golden State Warriors have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 28 of their last 60 games (-19.26 Units / -17% ROI)
- The Golden State Warriors have only hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 34 of their last 82 games (-18.75 Units / -20% ROI)
- The Golden State Warriors have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 30 of their last 72 games (-18.55 Units / -22% ROI)
Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Heat:
- The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 31 of their last 87 games (-30.53 Units / -31% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only covered the 1Q Spread in 33 of their last 84 games (-24.50 Units / -25% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 36 of their last 86 games (-20.35 Units / -20% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 33 of their last 84 games (-18.50 Units / -15% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the Team Total Over in 38 of their last 86 games (-16.55 Units / -17% ROI)
Jump to:
- Keys to Winning for the Miami Heat
- Keys to Winning for the Golden State Warriors
- Player Injuries for Miami Heat vs. Golden State Warriors
- Miami Heat Offensive stats
- Golden State Warriors Offensive stats
- Miami Heat Defensive stats
- Golden State Warriors Defensive stats
Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Golden State Warriors
The Heat are 2-10 (.167) when allowing their opponent to shoot 40% or better from three this season — T-9th-worst in the NBA. The Warriors have shot 37% from three this season — T-10th-best in the NBA.
The Heat were 14-2 (.875) when assisting on 30 or more field goals last season — tied for 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .697
The Heat were 18-7 (.720) when attempting 25 or more free throws last season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .554
The Heat are 26-2 (.929) when forcing an eFG of 50% or worse since the start of the 2023-24 season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .819
Golden State Warriors: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat
The Warriors are 7-1 (.875) when attempting 25 or more free throws this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .540
The Warriors are 18-13 (.581) when allowing 12 or more offensive rebounds this season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .504
The Warriors are 14-21 (.400) when their opponent attempts 25 or more free throws since the start of the 2023-24 season — 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .450
The Warriors are 3-9 (.250) when allowing 15 or more three-pointers this season — tied for 8th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .344
Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends
The Heat averaged 11.1 second chance points per game (454 points/41 games) on the road last season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.6
The Heat averaged 11.5 second chance points per game (943 points/82 games) last season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.8
The Heat averaged 53.3 points per game (4,368 points/82 games) in the second half last season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.5
The Heat have averaged 53.2 points per game (9,892 points/186 games) in the second half since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.4
Golden State Warriors Offensive Stats & Trends
The Warriors are shooting 71% from the free throw line (512/720) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 78%
The Warriors have made 15.6 three-pointers per game since the start of the 2022-23 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.7
The Warriors have averaged 1.20 points per shot (553 points/462 shots) in close and late situations this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.31
The Warriors have made 15.8 three-pointers per game at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.0
Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends
The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (603 blocks/186 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9
The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (302 blocks/93 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9
The Heat have averaged 3.5 blocks per game (406 blocks/116 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1
The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (301 blocks/93 games) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.0
Golden State Warriors Defensive Stats & Trends
The Warriors averaged 4.6 blocks per game (377 blocks/82 games) last season — tied for 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1
The Warriors averaged 7.0 steals per game (572 steals/82 games) last season — tied for 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5
The Warriors averaged 36.8 defensive rebounds per game (3,018 rebounds/82 games) last season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2
The Warriors have averaged 5.4 blocks per game (189 blocks/35 games) this season — tied for 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1
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