Jazz vs Heat Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Jan. 4

  • The Heat are -8.5 favorites vs. the Jazz
  • Total (Over/Under): 223.5 points
  • Watch the game on KJZZ | SUN

The Utah Jazz visit Kaseya Center to take on the Miami Heat on Saturday. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EST in Miami, FL.

The are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at ().

The Jazz vs Heat Over/Under is total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Jazz are 15-16 against the spread, while the Heat are 15-17 against the spread.


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Jazz vs. Heat Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Utah Jazz O
Miami Heat U

Heat vs Jazz Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Heat will win Saturday‘s game with 79.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Jazz and Heat.

Heat vs Jazz Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Jazz will cover the spread for Saturday‘s game with 56.6% confidence.


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  • The Utah Jazz have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 47 of their last 77 games (+13.50 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Utah Jazz have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 25 of their last 38 away games (+11.25 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Utah Jazz have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 38 away games (+10.70 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Utah Jazz have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 18 away games (+9.50 Units / 46% ROI)
  • The Utah Jazz have covered the 1Q Spread in 14 of their last 18 games (+9.35 Units / 45% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 54 of their last 85 games (+20.75 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have covered the 2Q Spread in 37 of their last 59 games (+13.92 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have covered the 4Q Spread in 25 of their last 37 games (+11.26 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Moneyline in 41 of their last 74 games (+11.20 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 24 of their last 37 games (+10.50 Units / 23% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Jazz have gone 15-16 (-2.6 Units / -7.39% ROI).

  • 7-25 against the Moneyline (-10.85 Units / -33.91% ROI)
  • 18-14 against the Over for game total points (+2.6 Units / 7.39% ROI)
  • 14-18 against the Under for game total points (-5.8 Units / -16.48% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 15-17 (-3.7 Units / -10.51% ROI).

  • 17-15 against the Moneyline (+2 Units / 3.42% ROI)
  • 18-14 against the Over for game total points (+2.6 Units / 7.39% ROI)
  • 14-18 against the Under for game total points (-5.8 Units / -16.48% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 30 of their last 87 games (-32.68 Units / -33% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only covered the 1Q Spread in 32 of their last 82 games (-24.35 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 32 of their last 82 games (-19.55 Units / -16% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 36 of their last 84 games (-18.05 Units / -19% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the Team Total Over in 37 of their last 84 games (-16.35 Units / -17% ROI)
  • The Utah Jazz have only hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 72 games (-27.70 Units / -32% ROI)
  • The Utah Jazz have only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 29 of their last 77 games (-25.00 Units / -28% ROI)
  • The Utah Jazz have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 20 of their last 74 games (-23.80 Units / -28% ROI)
  • The Utah Jazz have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 31 of their last 79 games (-21.97 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Utah Jazz have only covered the 4Q Spread in 29 of their last 73 games (-18.50 Units / -22% ROI)

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Utah Jazz: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The Jazz are winless (0-13) when losing the rebounding margin this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .400

The Jazz were winless (0-5) when shooting 70% or worse from the free throw line last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .414

The Jazz are 3-12 (.200) when allowing 15 or more second chance points this season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .448

The Jazz are 1-28 (.034) when their eFG is 50% or worse since the start of the 2023-24 season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .182

Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Utah Jazz

The Heat are undefeated (10-0) when forcing an eFG of 50% or worse this season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: .810

The Heat are 23-9 (.719) when forcing 10 or more steals since the start of the 2023-24 season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .584

The Heat are 7-1 (.875) when scoring 15 or more second chance points this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .552

The Heat are 21-3 (.875) when shooting 50% or better from the field since the start of the 2023-24 season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .777

Utah Jazz Offensive Stats & Trends

The Jazz have averaged 8.4 turnovers per game (955 turnovers/114 games) in the second half since the start of the 2023-24 season — highest among NBA teams; League Avg: 6.9

The Jazz have averaged 18.5 turnovers per game (591 turnovers/32 games) this season — highest among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.8

The Jazz averaged 15.7 turnovers per game (1,285 turnovers/82 games) last season — highest among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.6

The Jazz have averaged 9.4 turnovers per game (300 turnovers/32 games) in the second half this season — highest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.4

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 5.4 second chance points per game (618 points/114 games) in the first half since the start of the 2023-24 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 6.7

The Heat averaged 45.1 points in the paint per game (1,850 points/41 games) on the road last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 49.7

The Heat averaged 11.1 second chance points per game (454 points/41 games) on the road last season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.6

The Heat are shooting 38% from three (456/1,214) this season — tied for 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 36%

Utah Jazz Defensive Stats & Trends

The Jazz allowed opponents to shoot 41% from three (652/1,570) in the first half last season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 37%

The Jazz have allowed 17.9 fast break points per game (3,345 points/187 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 14.4

The Jazz have allowed 20.1 fast break points per game (1,885 points/94 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 14.7

The Jazz have allowed 19.0 fast break points per game (2,170 points/114 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 14.7

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (603 blocks/186 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (302 blocks/93 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Heat have averaged 3.5 blocks per game (113 blocks/32 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

The Heat have averaged 3.4 blocks per game (393 blocks/114 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1


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