Kings vs Heat Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Jan. 31

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jan 31, 2024, 4:30 PM
  • The Heat are -1.5 favorites vs. the Kings
  • Total (Over/Under): 232.5 points
  • Watch the game on SUN | NSCA

The Sacramento Kings visit Kaseya Center to take on the Miami Heat on Wednesday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EST in Miami, FL.

The Heat are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -1.5 (-115).

The Kings vs Heat Over/Under is 230.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Kings are 24-20 against the spread, while the Heat are 20-27 against the spread.


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Kings vs. Heat Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Sacramento Kings+1.5 -105O 230.5 -110+110
Miami Heat -1.5 -115U 230.5 -110-135

Heat vs Kings Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Heat will win Wednesday‘s game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in recent team & player performances for the Kings and Heat, plus player injuries and defensive & offensive matchups.

Heat vs Kings Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Kings will cover the spread for Wednesday‘s game with 60.6% confidence.


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  • The Sacramento Kings have covered the Spread in 27 of their last 39 away games (+14.85 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Sacramento Kings have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 17 of their last 22 away games (+11.60 Units / 49% ROI)
  • The Sacramento Kings have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 29 away games (+11.20 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Sacramento Kings have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 20 of their last 33 away games (+10.15 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Sacramento Kings have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 39 of their last 68 games (+8.60 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 41 of their last 71 games (+18.20 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Moneyline in 42 of their last 77 games (+16.50 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have covered the 1Q Spread in 49 of their last 80 games (+16.40 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 54 of their last 89 games (+14.70 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 46 of their last 79 games (+14.10 Units / 16% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Kings have gone 24-20 (+1.85 Units / 3.71% ROI).

  • 27-18 against the Moneyline (-9.8 Units / -9.78% ROI)
  • 21-23 against the Over for game total points (-4.3 Units / -8.69% ROI)
  • 23-21 against the Under for game total points (-0.1 Units / -0.2% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 20-27 (-9.65 Units / -18.67% ROI).

  • 24-23 against the Moneyline (-5.45 Units / -7.18% ROI)
  • 20-27 against the Over for game total points (-9.7 Units / -18.76% ROI)
  • 27-20 against the Under for game total points (+5 Units / 9.67% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 37 of their last 93 games (-25.20 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 38 of their last 96 games (-24.35 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 29 of their last 79 games (-22.00 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 17 of their last 50 games (-19.25 Units / -34% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only covered the 3Q Spread in 42 of their last 99 games (-18.20 Units / -17% ROI)
  • The Sacramento Kings have only hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 64 games (-28.80 Units / -18% ROI)
  • The Sacramento Kings have only covered the 4Q Spread in 29 of their last 74 games (-20.40 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Sacramento Kings have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 41 of their last 85 games (-20.15 Units / -16% ROI)
  • The Sacramento Kings have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 29 of their last 70 games (-15.40 Units / -20% ROI)
  • The Sacramento Kings have only hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 35 away games (-14.30 Units / -37% ROI)

Jump to:

Sacramento Kings: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The Kings are 22-1 (.957) when forcing an eFG of 50% or worse since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .791

The Kings were 1-11 (.083) when their eFG is 50% or worse last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .223

The Kings were 13-1 (.929) when forcing an eFG of 50% or worse last season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .777

The Kings were 26-18 (.591) when shooting 80% or better from the free throw line last season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .543

Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Sacramento Kings

The Heat were 19-9 (.679) when scoring 15 or more second chance points last season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .531

The Heat were 16-6 (.727) when forcing 10 or more steals last season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .609

The Heat are 7-3 (.700) when forcing 10 or more steals this season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .568

The Heat were 11-7 (.611) when scoring 15 or more fastbreak points last season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .554

Injury Report: Heat vs. KingsWednesday‘s Game, Jan. 31

  • Duncan Robinson (Miami Heat): Illness, Game Time Decision
  • Dru Smith (Miami Heat): Knee, Out For Season
  • Sasha Vezenkov (Sacramento Kings): Ankle, Game Time Decision

Sacramento Kings Offensive Stats & Trends

The Kings averaged 123.4 points per game (5,058 points/41 games) at home last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 115.9

The Kings averaged 120.7 points per game (9,898 points/82 games) last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 114.7

The Kings had an eFG% of 56% in close and late situations last season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 52%

The Kings averaged 2.7 fast break points per game (170 points/64 games) in close and late situations last season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 2.0

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 107.4 points per game (6,982 points/65 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 113.7

The Heat have averaged 109.8 points per game (14,164 points/129 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 115.0

The Heat averaged 11.5 fast break points per game (940 points/82 games) last season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.0

The Heat have averaged 12.1 fast break points per game (571 points/47 games) this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.3

Sacramento Kings Defensive Stats & Trends

The Kings averaged 3.4 blocks per game (275 blocks/82 games) last season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Kings have averaged 4.1 blocks per game (183 blocks/45 games) this season — 4th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.2

The Kings allowed 10.9 points in the paint per game (698 points/64 games) in close and late situations last season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 8.8

The Kings have allowed 4.6 fast break points per game (590 points/127 games) in the second half since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 6.6

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat averaged 3.0 blocks per game (243 blocks/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Heat have averaged 3.4 blocks per game (159 blocks/47 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.2

The Heat have averaged 3.1 blocks per game (200 blocks/65 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

The Heat averaged 8.0 steals per game (655 steals/82 games) last season — tied for 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.3


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.