Knicks vs Heat Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Mar. 2

  • The are favorites vs. the
  • Total (Over/Under): Total points
  • Watch the game on MSG | SUN

The New York Knicks visit Kaseya Center to take on the Miami Heat on Sunday. Tipoff is scheduled for 6:00pm EST in Miami, FL, FL, USA.

The are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at ().

The Knicks vs Heat Over/Under is total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Knicks are 27-30 against the spread, while the Heat are 25-32 against the spread.


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Knicks vs. Heat Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
New York Knicks O
Miami Heat U

Heat vs Knicks Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Knicks will win Sunday‘s game with 79.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Knicks and Heat.

Heat vs Knicks Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Knicks will cover the spread for Sunday‘s game with 63.4% confidence.


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  • The New York Knicks have hit the Game Total Over in 54 of their last 87 games (+18.80 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The New York Knicks have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 50 of their last 84 games (+13.46 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The New York Knicks have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 50 of their last 84 games (+10.80 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The New York Knicks have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 37 of their last 58 games (+10.26 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The New York Knicks have covered the 2Q Spread in 32 of their last 52 games (+10.00 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Moneyline in 49 of their last 87 games (+11.45 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 18 of their last 29 games (+11.30 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Game Total Over in 44 of their last 75 games (+9.90 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 31 of their last 50 games (+9.50 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have covered the 2Q Spread in 48 of their last 85 games (+8.77 Units / 9% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Knicks have gone 27-30 (-6 Units / -9.25% ROI).

  • 39-20 against the Moneyline (-5.4 Units / -2.82% ROI)
  • 33-25 against the Over for game total points (+5.5 Units / 8.48% ROI)
  • 25-33 against the Under for game total points (-11.35 Units / -17.48% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 25-32 (-10.2 Units / -15.99% ROI).

  • 28-30 against the Moneyline (-7.1 Units / -7.27% ROI)
  • 32-26 against the Over for game total points (+3.4 Units / 5.33% ROI)
  • 26-32 against the Under for game total points (-9.2 Units / -14.42% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 79 games (-17.60 Units / -20% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 19 of their last 50 games (-16.48 Units / -29% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only covered the 1Q Spread in 37 of their last 84 games (-15.10 Units / -16% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only covered the Spread in 38 of their last 88 games (-14.80 Units / -15% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 79 games (-14.15 Units / -16% ROI)
  • The New York Knicks have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 37 of their last 86 games (-33.35 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The New York Knicks have only covered the 1Q Spread in 28 of their last 82 games (-31.00 Units / -33% ROI)
  • The New York Knicks have only hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 87 games (-27.45 Units / -29% ROI)
  • The New York Knicks have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 44 of their last 86 games (-26.43 Units / -14% ROI)
  • The New York Knicks have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 32 of their last 84 games (-25.10 Units / -26% ROI)

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New York Knicks: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The Knicks were 14-3 (.824) when their opponent attempts fewer than 15 free throws last season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .544

The Knicks are 26-7 (.788) when winning the rebounding margin this season — 4th-best in the NBA. The Heat have averaged 51.5 rebounds/game this season — 8th-lowest in the NBA.

The Knicks are 19-4 (.826) when shooting 40% or better from three this season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .706

The Knicks are 12-9 (.571) when scoring fewer than 10 second chance points since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .459

Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the New York Knicks

The Heat are 8-23 (.258) when allowing 110 or more points this season — 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .343

The Heat are 21-46 (.313) when allowing 110 or more points since the start of the 2023-24 season — 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .340

The Heat are 26-10 (.722) when forcing 10 or more steals since the start of the 2023-24 season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .585

The Heat are 26-6 (.812) when assisting on 30 or more field goals since the start of the 2023-24 season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .698

New York Knicks Offensive Stats & Trends

The Knicks averaged 19.0 offensive rebounds per game (1,557 rebounds/82 games) last season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 16.2

The Knicks averaged 8.6 second chance points per game (706 points/82 games) in the first half last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 6.6

The Knicks have an eFG% of 56% this season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 54%

The Knicks have averaged 1.32 points per shot (6,942 points/5,263 shots) this season — tied for 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.27

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat shot 43% (413/964) in close and late situations last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 46%

The Heat averaged 11.5 second chance points per game (943 points/82 games) last season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.8

The Heat had an eFG% of 49% in close and late situations last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 53%

The Heat have averaged 5.8 fast break points per game (812 points/140 games) in the second half since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.1

New York Knicks Defensive Stats & Trends

The Knicks have allowed opponents to shoot 40% from three (413/1,041) in the second half this season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 36%

The Knicks averaged 4.1 blocks per game (336 blocks/82 games) last season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

The Knicks have averaged 34.5 defensive rebounds per game (2,034 rebounds/59 games) this season — 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.4

The Knicks allowed 11.7 second chance points per game (481 points/41 games) at home last season — 2nd best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 13.6

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 3.8 blocks per game (218 blocks/58 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.0

The Heat have averaged 3.4 blocks per game (224 blocks/66 games) at home since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.2

The Heat have averaged 3.6 blocks per game (498 blocks/140 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

The Heat averaged 3.4 blocks per game (280 blocks/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.