Mavericks vs Heat Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Apr. 10

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Apr 10, 2024, 4:30 PM
  • The Mavericks are -3.5 favorites vs. the Heat
  • Total (Over/Under): 215.5 points
  • Watch the game on ESPN | SUN | WFAA

The Dallas Mavericks visit Kaseya Center to take on the Miami Heat on Wednesday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EDT in Miami, FL.

The Mavericks are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -1.5 (-115).

The Mavericks vs Heat Over/Under is 215.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Mavericks are 47-32 against the spread, while the Heat are 39-38 against the spread.


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Mavericks vs. Heat Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Dallas Mavericks-1.5 -115O 215.5 -110-130
Miami Heat +1.5 -105U 215.5 -110+105

Heat vs Mavericks Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Mavericks will win Wednesday‘s game with 63.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Mavericks and Heat.

Heat vs Mavericks Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Mavericks will cover the spread for Wednesday‘s game with 51.3% confidence.


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  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 34 of their last 50 games (+16.85 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have covered the Spread in 23 of their last 30 games (+15.30 Units / 47% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 54 games (+14.10 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 17 games (+12.90 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have covered the 2Q Spread in 25 of their last 39 away games (+8.70 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 34 of their last 49 games (+17.80 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Moneyline in 56 of their last 100 games (+17.35 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Game Total Under in 54 of their last 88 games (+16.60 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 57 of their last 97 games (+15.70 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 54 of their last 98 games (+14.75 Units / 11% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Mavericks have gone 47-32 (+11.8 Units / 13.59% ROI).

  • 49-30 against the Moneyline (+8.75 Units / 5.11% ROI)
  • 37-42 against the Over for game total points (-9.2 Units / -10.59% ROI)
  • 42-37 against the Under for game total points (+1.3 Units / 1.5% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 39-38 (-2.8 Units / -3.22% ROI).

  • 44-35 against the Moneyline (-0.5 Units / -0.33% ROI)
  • 33-46 against the Over for game total points (-17.6 Units / -20.25% ROI)
  • 46-33 against the Under for game total points (+9.7 Units / 11.16% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 37 of their last 99 games (-29.00 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 37 of their last 95 games (-27.55 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 88 games (-25.40 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 38 of their last 90 games (-20.50 Units / -20% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only covered the 4Q Spread in 34 of their last 82 games (-19.75 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 36 of their last 79 games (-25.15 Units / -18% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 16 of their last 52 games (-24.35 Units / -41% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 56 games (-19.60 Units / -32% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 20 of their last 50 games (-19.40 Units / -27% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 17 of their last 42 games (-18.30 Units / -29% ROI)

Jump to:

Dallas Mavericks: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

Keys to the game – away

Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Dallas Mavericks

The Heat were 11-7 (.611) when scoring 15 or more fastbreak points last season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .554

The Heat are 18-7 (.720) when attempting 25 or more free throws this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .552

The Heat were 16-6 (.727) when forcing 10 or more steals last season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .609

The Heat were 19-9 (.679) when scoring 15 or more second chance points last season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .531

Injury Report: Heat vs. MavericksWednesday‘s Game, Apr. 10

  • Tyler Herro (Miami Heat): Knee, Game Time Decision
  • Thomas Bryant (Miami Heat): Not Injury Related, Game Time Decision
  • Josh Richardson (Miami Heat): Shoulder, Out
  • Dru Smith (Miami Heat): Knee, Out For Season
  • Orlando Robinson (Miami Heat): Back, Out
  • Terry Rozier (Miami Heat): Knee, Out
  • Dante Exum (Dallas Mavericks): Knee, Game Time Decision

Dallas Mavericks Offensive Stats & Trends

The Mavericks averaged 12.2 turnovers per game (1,002 turnovers/82 games) last season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.1

The Mavericks have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.5 (236 assists/ 93 TOs) in close and late situations this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

The Mavericks have averaged 6.0 turnovers per game (962 turnovers/161 games) in the second half since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 6.9

The Mavericks averaged 9.9 fast break points per game (404 points/41 games) on the road last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.7

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have an eFG% of 49% in close and late situations this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 53%

The Heat are shooting 43% (410/961) in close and late situations this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 46%

The Heat are shooting 31% from three (116/371) in close and late situations this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35%

The Heat averaged 107.5 points per game (4,408 points/41 games) on the road last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 113.4

Dallas Mavericks Defensive Stats & Trends

The Mavericks averaged 33.8 defensive rebounds per game (2,774 rebounds/82 games) last season — 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Mavericks averaged 6.3 steals per game (514 steals/82 games) last season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.3

The Mavericks have averaged 36.0 defensive rebounds per game (2,845 rebounds/79 games) this season — tied for 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Mavericks have averaged 6.6 steals per game (1,065 steals/161 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — 4th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.4

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat averaged 3.0 blocks per game (243 blocks/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Heat have averaged 3.1 blocks per game (248 blocks/79 games) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.0

The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (513 blocks/161 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (265 blocks/82 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.