- The Nuggets are -2.5 favorites vs. the Mavericks
- Total (Over/Under): 227.5 points
- Watch the game on ESPN | KFAA | ALT
The Dallas Mavericks visit Ball Arena to take on the Denver Nuggets on Friday. Tipoff is scheduled for 10:00pm EST in Denver, CO.
The Nuggets are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -4.5 (-115).
The Mavericks vs Nuggets Over/Under is 229.5 total points for the game.
So far this NBA season, the Mavericks are 7-7 against the spread, while the Nuggets are 5-7 against the spread.
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Mavericks vs. Nuggets Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Dallas Mavericks | +4.5 -105 | O 229.5 -110 | +165 |
| Denver Nuggets | -4.5 -115 | U 229.5 -110 | -200 |
Nuggets vs Mavericks Prediction for Tonight’s Game:
The winning team model predicts the Nuggets will win Friday‘s game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Mavericks and Nuggets.
Nuggets vs Mavericks Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Mavericks will cover the spread for Friday‘s game with 54.6% confidence.
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Mavericks Best Bets for Tonight:
- The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 59 of their last 90 games (+24.65 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Dallas Mavericks have hit the Game Total Under in 59 of their last 94 games (+20.50 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Dallas Mavericks have covered the Spread in 43 of their last 70 games (+15.50 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Dallas Mavericks have covered the 4Q Spread in 22 of their last 30 away games (+13.70 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 18 of their last 26 away games (+12.87 Units / 43% ROI)
Nuggets Best Bets for Tonight:
- The Denver Nuggets have hit the Moneyline in 62 of their last 91 games (+13.05 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Denver Nuggets have covered the 3Q Spread in 28 of their last 43 games at home (+11.05 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Denver Nuggets have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 13 of their last 18 games at home (+9.49 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Denver Nuggets have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 27 of their last 43 games at home (+8.93 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 10 of their last 11 games (+8.85 Units / 70% ROI)
Dallas Mavericks Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:
Against the spread this NBA season, the Mavericks have gone 7-7 (-0.7 Units / -4.24% ROI).
- 8-7 against the Moneyline (-2.75 Units / -5.61% ROI)
- 7-8 against the Over for game total points (-1.8 Units / -10.91% ROI)
- 8-7 against the Under for game total points (+0.3 Units / 1.82% ROI)
Denver Nuggets Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:
Against the spread this NBA season, the Nuggets have gone 5-7 (-2.7 Units / -18.88% ROI).
- 8-5 against the Moneyline (+2.5 Units / 8.56% ROI)
- 9-4 against the Over for game total points (+4.6 Units / 32.17% ROI)
- 4-9 against the Under for game total points (-5.9 Units / -41.26% ROI)
Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Nuggets:
- The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 39 of their last 78 games (-30.90 Units / -16% ROI)
- The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 40 of their last 92 games (-19.05 Units / -18% ROI)
- The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 29 of their last 69 games (-17.08 Units / -22% ROI)
- The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 28 games (-15.50 Units / -35% ROI)
- The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 27 games at home (-15.06 Units / -33% ROI)
Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Mavericks:
- The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 31 of their last 92 games (-38.35 Units / -36% ROI)
- The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 96 games (-30.00 Units / -28% ROI)
- The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 36 of their last 82 games (-26.80 Units / -22% ROI)
- The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the Team Total Over in 34 of their last 82 games (-22.25 Units / -23% ROI)
- The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 38 of their last 82 games (-21.90 Units / -15% ROI)
Jump to:
- Keys to Winning for the Dallas Mavericks
- Keys to Winning for the Denver Nuggets
- Player Injuries for Dallas Mavericks vs. Denver Nuggets
- Dallas Mavericks Offensive stats
- Denver Nuggets Offensive stats
- Dallas Mavericks Defensive stats
- Denver Nuggets Defensive stats
Dallas Mavericks: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Nuggets
The Mavericks are undefeated (11-0) when forcing their opponent to shoot 40% or worse from the field since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: .896
The Mavericks were 22-10 (.688) when scoring more second chance points than their opponent last season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .566
The Mavericks are 22-2 (.917) when forcing an eFG of 50% or worse since the start of the 2023-24 season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .824
The Mavericks were 17-1 (.944) when forcing an eFG of 50% or worse last season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .822
Denver Nuggets: Keys to the Game vs. the Dallas Mavericks
The Nuggets are 28-7 (.800) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2022-23 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .581
The Nuggets are 24-9 (.727) when allowing 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .448
The Nuggets are 58-9 (.866) when scoring 110 or more points since the start of the 2023-24 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .658
The Nuggets are 21-7 (.750) when attempting 25 or more free throws since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .552
Dallas Mavericks Offensive Stats & Trends
The Mavericks had an assist to turnover ratio of 2.5 (240 assists/ 95 TOs) in close and late situations last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8
The Mavericks averaged 1.31 points per shot (9,772 points/7,436 shots) last season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.28
The Mavericks have averaged 13.0 turnovers per game (195 turnovers/15 games) this season — tied for 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.8
The Mavericks have averaged 6.0 turnovers per game (1,075 turnovers/179 games) in the second half since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 6.9
Denver Nuggets Offensive Stats & Trends
The Nuggets have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.3 (2,714 assists/ 1,201 TOs) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.9
The Nuggets have averaged 19.2 fast break points per game (249 points/13 games) this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 15.4
The Nuggets had an assist to turnover ratio of 2.3 (2,415 assists/ 1,036 TOs) last season — tied for 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 2.0
The Nuggets have averaged 11.2 fast break points per game (145 points/13 games) in the first half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.9
Dallas Mavericks Defensive Stats & Trends
The Mavericks have averaged 36.0 defensive rebounds per game (3,490 rebounds/97 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2
The Mavericks have averaged 6.7 steals per game (1,205 steals/179 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for 4th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5
The Mavericks have averaged 4.4 blocks per game (795 blocks/179 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9
The Mavericks have averaged 6.9 steals per game (325 steals/47 games) on the road since the start of the 2023-24 season — 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.6
Denver Nuggets Defensive Stats & Trends
The Nuggets have averaged 37.0 defensive rebounds per game (481 rebounds/13 games) this season — tied for 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.3
The Nuggets have averaged 9.2 steals per game (120 steals/13 games) this season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 8.3
The Nuggets averaged 5.6 blocks per game (457 blocks/82 games) last season — tied for 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1
The Nuggets have averaged 5.5 blocks per game (519 blocks/95 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1
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