Mavericks vs Rockets Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Mar. 31

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Mar 31, 2024, 4:31 PM
  • The Mavericks are -2.5 favorites vs. the Rockets
  • Total (Over/Under): 230.5 points
  • Watch the game on SCHN | BSW+

The Dallas Mavericks visit Toyota Center to take on the Houston Rockets on Sunday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EDT in Houston, TX.

The Mavericks are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-110).

The Mavericks vs Rockets Over/Under is 229.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Mavericks are 42-31 against the spread, while the Rockets are 41-30 against the spread.


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Mavericks vs. Rockets Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Dallas Mavericks-3.5 -110O 229.5 -110-155
Houston Rockets +3.5 -110U 229.5 -110+125

Rockets vs Mavericks Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Rockets will win Sunday‘s game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Mavericks and Rockets.

Rockets vs Mavericks Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Rockets will cover the spread for Sunday‘s game with 56.1% confidence.


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  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 31 of their last 44 games (+17.20 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 48 games (+14.40 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have covered the Spread in 25 of their last 37 away games (+11.80 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 11 games (+9.00 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 32 games (+8.55 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 38 games at home (+18.65 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have covered the Spread in 26 of their last 36 games at home (+16.10 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 26 of their last 38 games at home (+14.95 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have covered the 3Q Spread in 46 of their last 76 games (+11.20 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have hit the 1H Moneyline in 26 of their last 36 games at home (+10.45 Units / 17% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Mavericks have gone 42-31 (+7.9 Units / 9.85% ROI).

  • 44-29 against the Moneyline (+4.85 Units / 3.25% ROI)
  • 34-39 against the Over for game total points (-8.9 Units / -11.08% ROI)
  • 39-34 against the Under for game total points (+1.6 Units / 1.99% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Rockets have gone 41-30 (+8 Units / 9.96% ROI).

  • 38-35 against the Moneyline (+9.55 Units / 7.71% ROI)
  • 34-38 against the Over for game total points (-7.8 Units / -9.71% ROI)
  • 38-34 against the Under for game total points (+0.65 Units / 0.81% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 32 of their last 76 games (-18.85 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 33 of their last 77 games (-16.20 Units / -18% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have only covered the 4Q Spread in 5 of their last 25 games at home (-15.70 Units / -55% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have only covered the 1H Spread in 26 of their last 62 games (-13.00 Units / -18% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 30 of their last 67 games (-12.80 Units / -16% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 34 of their last 78 games (-28.95 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 46 games (-23.85 Units / -45% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 50 games (-19.30 Units / -35% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 23 of their last 59 games (-15.90 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only covered the 3Q Spread in 27 of their last 66 games (-15.60 Units / -21% ROI)

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Dallas Mavericks: Keys to the Game vs. the Houston Rockets

The Mavericks were 13-17 (.433) when they lose the turnover margin last season — 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .460

The Mavericks are 28-14 (.667) when they win the turnover margin this season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .556

The Mavericks are 19-7 (.731) when winning the rebounding margin this season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .640

The Mavericks are 18-9 (.667) when scoring more second chance points than their opponent this season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .568

Houston Rockets: Keys to the Game vs. the Dallas Mavericks

The Rockets were winless (0-5) when scoring fewer than 10 second chance points last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .444

The Rockets were 2-19 (.095) when losing the rebounding margin last season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .366

The Rockets were 5-21 (.192) when scoring fewer than 10 fastbreak points last season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .444

The Rockets were 6-22 (.214) when scoring fewer second chance points than their opponent last season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .456

Injury Report: Rockets vs. MavericksSunday‘s Game, Mar. 31

  • Steven Adams (Houston Rockets): Knee, Out For Season
  • Tari Eason (Houston Rockets): Lower Leg, Out
  • Dante Exum (Dallas Mavericks): Knee, Game Time Decision

Dallas Mavericks Offensive Stats & Trends

The Mavericks have an assist to turnover ratio of 3.0 (204 assists/ 68 TOs) in close and late situations this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

The Mavericks averaged 40.7 points in the paint per game (1,668 points/41 games) on the road last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 50.2

The Mavericks averaged 12.2 turnovers per game (1,002 turnovers/82 games) last season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.1

The Mavericks averaged 9.9 fast break points per game (404 points/41 games) on the road last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.7

Houston Rockets Offensive Stats & Trends

The Rockets had an assist to turnover ratio of 1.4 (1,835 assists/ 1,332 TOs) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

The Rockets had an assist to turnover ratio of 1.3 (887 assists/ 665 TOs) in the second half last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.7

The Rockets had an assist to turnover ratio of 1.3 (892 assists/ 666 TOs) at home last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

The Rockets shot 33% from three (856/2,619) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 36%

Dallas Mavericks Defensive Stats & Trends

The Mavericks have averaged 6.9 steals per game (501 steals/73 games) this season — tied for 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.4

The Mavericks averaged 6.3 steals per game (514 steals/82 games) last season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.3

The Mavericks have averaged 4.2 blocks per game (324 blocks/78 games) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Mavericks have averaged 4.2 blocks per game (327 blocks/77 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

Houston Rockets Defensive Stats & Trends

The Rockets allowed 14.5 made three-pointers per game last season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 12.3

The Rockets allowed an eFG% of 59% on the road last season — 2nd highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 55%

The Rockets allowed 17.5 fast break points per game (1,432 points/82 games) last season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 14.0

The Rockets allowed a TS% of 55% on the road last season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 52%


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.