Mavericks vs Warriors Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Apr. 2

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Apr 02, 2024, 11:13 AM
  • The Warriors are -1.5 favorites vs. the Mavericks
  • Total (Over/Under): 231.5 points
  • Watch the game on NSBA | TNT

The Dallas Mavericks visit Chase Center to take on the Golden State Warriors on Tuesday. Tipoff is scheduled for 10:00pm EDT in San Francisco, CA.

The Warriors are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -1.5 (-105).

The Mavericks vs Warriors Over/Under is 231.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Mavericks are 43-31 against the spread, while the Warriors are 40-33 against the spread.


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Mavericks vs. Warriors Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Dallas Mavericks+1.5 -115O 231.5 -110-105
Golden State Warriors -1.5 -105U 231.5 -110-115

Warriors vs Mavericks Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Mavericks will win Tuesday‘s game with 51.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Mavericks and Warriors.

Warriors vs Mavericks Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Mavericks will cover the spread for Tuesday‘s game with 56.7% confidence.


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  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 32 of their last 45 games (+18.20 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 49 games (+13.30 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have covered the Spread in 26 of their last 38 away games (+12.80 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 12 games (+10.00 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have covered the 2Q Spread in 24 of their last 38 away games (+7.70 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 40 of their last 67 games (+10.30 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 31 games (+10.00 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have covered the Spread in 34 of their last 57 games (+9.80 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have covered the 4Q Spread in their last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 90% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have hit the 4Q Moneyline in their last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 67% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Mavericks have gone 43-31 (+8.9 Units / 10.95% ROI).

  • 45-29 against the Moneyline (+5.85 Units / 3.87% ROI)
  • 35-39 against the Over for game total points (-7.9 Units / -9.71% ROI)
  • 39-35 against the Under for game total points (+0.5 Units / 0.61% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Warriors have gone 40-33 (+3.7 Units / 4.55% ROI).

  • 40-34 against the Moneyline (-10.2 Units / -6.35% ROI)
  • 37-37 against the Over for game total points (-3.7 Units / -4.55% ROI)
  • 37-37 against the Under for game total points (-3.7 Units / -4.55% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 28 of their last 71 games (-20.20 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 41 games at home (-19.60 Units / -19% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only covered the 1H Spread in 16 of their last 44 games at home (-16.10 Units / -32% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 23 of their last 56 games (-14.10 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 31 games (-13.10 Units / -38% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 35 of their last 78 games (-26.60 Units / -20% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 47 games (-25.00 Units / -46% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 51 games (-18.30 Units / -33% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only covered the 3Q Spread in 27 of their last 67 games (-16.75 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only covered the 4Q Spread in 28 of their last 67 games (-15.70 Units / -20% ROI)

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Dallas Mavericks: Keys to the Game vs. the Golden State Warriors

The Mavericks are 28-14 (.667) when they win the turnover margin this season — 9th-best in the NBA. The Warriors have averaged 14.2 turnovers per game this season — 8th-highest in the NBA.

The Mavericks are 4-13 (.235) when scoring fewer than 10 fastbreak points this season — 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .399

The Mavericks are 28-14 (.667) when they win the turnover margin this season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .551

The Mavericks are 30-10 (.750) when scoring 15 or more fastbreak points this season — tied for 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .563

Golden State Warriors: Keys to the Game vs. the Dallas Mavericks

The Warriors were 1-16 (.059) when allowing an eFG of 60% or better last season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .188

The Warriors are 24-4 (.857) when shooting 40% or better from three this season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .687

The Warriors were 6-23 (.207) when allowing 15 or more three-pointers last season — 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .298

The Warriors were 8-12 (.400) when scoring fewer than 10 fastbreak points last season — tied for 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .444

Injury Report: Warriors vs. MavericksTuesday‘s Game, Apr. 2

  • Chris Paul (Golden State Warriors): Hand, Out
  • Dante Exum (Dallas Mavericks): Knee, Game Time Decision

Dallas Mavericks Offensive Stats & Trends

The Mavericks have an assist to turnover ratio of 3.0 (204 assists/ 68 TOs) in close and late situations this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

The Mavericks averaged 6.0 turnovers per game (496 turnovers/82 games) in the second half last season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.0

The Mavericks have averaged 43.5 points in the paint per game (3,390 points/78 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 50.3

The Mavericks have averaged 45.1 points in the paint per game (7,028 points/156 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 50.6

Golden State Warriors Offensive Stats & Trends

The Warriors averaged 8.2 turnovers per game (673 turnovers/82 games) in the second half last season — highest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.0

The Warriors averaged 30.5 assists per game (1,250 assists/41 games) at home last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 25.6

The Warriors averaged 14.4 assists per game (1,181 assists/82 games) in the second half last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.0

The Warriors have a 22% free throw rate (3,158 free throw attempts/14,216 field goal attempts) since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 26%

Dallas Mavericks Defensive Stats & Trends

The Mavericks averaged 3.7 blocks per game (304 blocks/82 games) last season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Mavericks have averaged 4.2 blocks per game (659 blocks/156 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Mavericks averaged 33.8 defensive rebounds per game (2,774 rebounds/82 games) last season — 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Mavericks have averaged 4.2 blocks per game (324 blocks/78 games) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

Golden State Warriors Defensive Stats & Trends

The Warriors averaged 36.6 defensive rebounds per game (2,999 rebounds/82 games) last season — 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Warriors have averaged 6.9 steals per game (509 steals/74 games) this season — tied for 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.4

The Warriors have averaged 3.9 blocks per game (308 blocks/78 games) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Warriors averaged 3.9 blocks per game (323 blocks/82 games) last season — tied for 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7


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