- The Warriors are -9.5 favorites vs. the Mavericks
- Total (Over/Under): 230.5 points
- Watch the game on ABC | ESPN+
The Dallas Mavericks visit Chase Center to take on the Golden State Warriors on Sunday. Tipoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EST in San Francisco, CA, USA.
The Warriors are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -9.5 (-105).
The Mavericks vs Warriors Over/Under is 230.5 total points for the game.
So far this NBA season, the Mavericks are 29-26 against the spread, while the Warriors are 29-27 against the spread.
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Mavericks vs. Warriors Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Dallas Mavericks | +9.5 -115 | O 230.5 -115 | +290 |
| Golden State Warriors | -9.5 -105 | U 230.5 -105 | -375 |
Warriors vs Mavericks Prediction for Tonight’s Game:
The winning team model predicts the Warriors will win Sunday‘s game with 79.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Mavericks and Warriors.
Warriors vs Mavericks Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Warriors will cover the spread for Sunday‘s game with 54.8% confidence.
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Mavericks Best Bets for Tonight:
- The Dallas Mavericks have hit the Moneyline in 60 of their last 99 games (+20.95 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Dallas Mavericks have covered the 4Q Spread in 59 of their last 98 games (+18.48 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 30 of their last 48 away games (+14.10 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Dallas Mavericks have covered the Spread in 57 of their last 99 games (+14.10 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 26 of their last 37 away games (+13.35 Units / 31% ROI)
Warriors Best Bets for Tonight:
- The Golden State Warriors have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 23 of their last 34 games (+10.50 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Golden State Warriors have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 44 games (+9.65 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Golden State Warriors have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 10 of their last 13 games at home (+6.55 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Golden State Warriors have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.50 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Golden State Warriors have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 14 games (+6.25 Units / 32% ROI)
Dallas Mavericks Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:
Against the spread this NBA season, the Mavericks have gone 29-26 (+0.4 Units / 0.64% ROI).
- 31-26 against the Moneyline (+9.4 Units / 7.56% ROI)
- 30-27 against the Over for game total points (+0.3 Units / 0.48% ROI)
- 27-30 against the Under for game total points (-6 Units / -9.57% ROI)
Golden State Warriors Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:
Against the spread this NBA season, the Warriors have gone 29-27 (-0.8 Units / -1.3% ROI).
- 29-27 against the Moneyline (-12.8 Units / -11.16% ROI)
- 28-28 against the Over for game total points (-2.8 Units / -4.55% ROI)
- 28-28 against the Under for game total points (-2.8 Units / -4.55% ROI)
Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Warriors:
- The Golden State Warriors have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 36 of their last 81 games (-31.11 Units / -21% ROI)
- The Golden State Warriors have only hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 39 games at home (-24.10 Units / -23% ROI)
- The Golden State Warriors have only covered the 1H Spread in 35 of their last 84 games (-21.85 Units / -22% ROI)
- The Golden State Warriors have only covered the 1Q Spread in 19 of their last 57 games (-20.00 Units / -31% ROI)
- The Golden State Warriors have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 13 of their last 40 games (-19.70 Units / -36% ROI)
Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Mavericks:
- The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 41 of their last 99 games (-25.27 Units / -22% ROI)
- The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 14 of their last 43 away games (-19.15 Units / -39% ROI)
- The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 49 of their last 100 games (-16.50 Units / -11% ROI)
- The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the Game Total Over in 44 of their last 99 games (-16.50 Units / -15% ROI)
- The Dallas Mavericks have only covered the 3Q Spread in 43 of their last 96 games (-15.15 Units / -14% ROI)
Jump to:
- Keys to Winning for the Dallas Mavericks
- Keys to Winning for the Golden State Warriors
- Player Injuries for Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors
- Dallas Mavericks Offensive stats
- Golden State Warriors Offensive stats
- Dallas Mavericks Defensive stats
- Golden State Warriors Defensive stats
Dallas Mavericks: Keys to the Game vs. the Golden State Warriors
The Mavericks are 15-1 (.938) when winning the rebounding margin by 10 or more since the start of the 2023-24 season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .753
The Mavericks are 10-18 (.357) when allowing 15 or more fastbreak points this season — tied for 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .426
The Mavericks are 51-15 (.773) when making 15 or more three-pointers since the start of the 2023-24 season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .646
The Mavericks were 28-2 (.933) when shooting 50% or better from the field last season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .789
Golden State Warriors: Keys to the Game vs. the Dallas Mavericks
The Warriors are undefeated (6-0) when shooting 50% or better from the field this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .754
The Warriors are 1-9 (.100) when allowing an eFG of 60% or better this season — 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .190
The Warriors were 8-16 (.333) when their opponent attempts 25 or more free throws last season — tied for 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .446
The Warriors are 27-3 (.900) when their eFG is 60% or better since the start of the 2023-24 season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .837
Dallas Mavericks Offensive Stats & Trends
The Mavericks had an assist to turnover ratio of 2.5 (240 assists/ 95 TOs) in close and late situations last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8
The Mavericks have an eFG% of 55% this season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 54%
The Mavericks had a TS% of 53% last season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 52%
The Mavericks have made 14.9 three-pointers per game on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.5
Golden State Warriors Offensive Stats & Trends
The Warriors are shooting 73% from the free throw line (841/1,150) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 78%
The Warriors have made 15.8 three-pointers per game at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.0
The Warriors averaged 22% free throw attempts for every field goal attempt (1,644 free throw attempts/7,515 field goal attempts) last season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 24%
The Warriors have made 15.4 three-pointers per game on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.5
Dallas Mavericks Defensive Stats & Trends
The Mavericks have averaged 35.9 defensive rebounds per game (4,957 rebounds/138 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.3
The Mavericks have allowed opponents to shoot 39% from three (404/1,027) on the road this season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 36%
The Mavericks averaged 7.0 steals per game (572 steals/82 games) last season — tied for 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5
The Mavericks have averaged 6.0 blocks per game (336 blocks/56 games) this season — tied for 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.0
Golden State Warriors Defensive Stats & Trends
The Warriors have averaged 36.5 defensive rebounds per game (4,995 rebounds/137 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.3
The Warriors have 485 steals this season — 9th most among NBA teams
The Warriors have averaged 36.9 defensive rebounds per game (6,899 rebounds/187 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.3
The Warriors averaged 7.0 steals per game (572 steals/82 games) last season — tied for 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5
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