- Get expert betting picks & predictions for today's top NBA games.
- I’m taking the over in Thursday’s Magic vs. Lakers matchup.
- I bet over 3.5 assists for Orlando guard Jalen Suggs.
A new NBA regular season is upon us, so bookmark this page for daily expert betting picks and predictions involving over/under totals and player prop markets. This column finished 3-0 on Wednesday.
Read on for NBA betting picks and predictions based on the latest NBA odds at the online sportsbook for Thursday’s schedule:
NBA Predictions Over/Under Today
My best over/under prediction today is over 216.5 points (-110) for the Orlando Magic vs. Los Angeles Lakers matchup because I expect the offense to win out in a battle of elite units.
The Magic rank second in the league in defensive rating, while the Lakers are fourth in offensive rating. I give the edge to the Lakers, as this is the second night of a back-to-back for the Magic, who suffered a 104-93 loss to the Los Angeles Clippers on Wednesday.
More importantly, Los Angeles’ defense leaves a lot to be desired. This sets up for a solid offensive showing from Orlando.
Best Bet: Magic vs. Lakers Over 216.5 (-110)
NBA Prop Bet Predictions Today: Jalen Suggs
Based on the latest NBA betting lines, I’m betting over 3.5 assists (+100) for Orlando Magic guard Jalen Suggs against the Los Angeles Lakers as my favorite player prop for Thursday’s NBA slate.
The Magic have been playing without Paolo Banchero this month, causing their offense to revolve around Franz Wagner. But Suggs ranks second on the team in potential assists (9.5) while leading Orlando in passes made (54.5) in November.
The Lakers struggle in transition, where Suggs can thrive by pushing the pace. I project 4.2 assists for Suggs, suggesting solid value on this +100 price for over 3.5 assists.
Best Bet: Jalen Suggs Over 3.5 Assists (+100) vs. Lakers
NBA Prop Bet Predictions Today: Jakob Poeltl
According to the latest NBA betting odds, there is value in betting on over 2.5 assists (+125) for Toronto Raptors center Jakob Poeltl against the Minnesota Timberwolves due to his recent role with the team.
Poeltl has scored 25-plus points in three straight games, including 65 total points over his previous two outings. I expect Minnesota’s defense, particularly with Rudy Gobert at center, to force the ball out of his hands more.
I project 2.9 assists, suggesting a fair price of -120 instead of this plus-money value.
Best Bet: Jakob Poeltl Over 2.5 Assists (+125) vs. Timberwolves
NBA Best Bets Today, Nov. 21
Below are my best bets for today’s NBA schedule. All my bets are tracked via multiple third-party platforms. That information can be found by following me on Bluesky via @shanejackson.bsky.social.
| Game | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Magic vs. Lakers | Over 216.5 | -110 |
| Magic vs. Lakers | Jalen Suggs Over 3.5 Assists | +100 |
| Timberwolves vs. Raptors | Jakob Poeltl Over 2.5 Assists | +125 |
How Often Do Favorites Cover in NBA Betting?
Favorites covered the spread in 50% of regular-season games over the last 10 seasons.
The New York Knicks were the best team as a favorite over that time, covering in 55% of opportunities.
The Minnesota Timberwolves were the worst favorite, covering in 46% of opportunities.
How Often Do Underdogs Cover in NBA Betting?
Underdogs covered the spread in 50% of regular-season games over the last 10 seasons.
The Boston Celtics were the best team as an underdog over that time, covering in 59% of opportunities.
The Houston Rockets were the worst underdog, covering in 45% of opportunities.
How Often Do Home Teams Cover in NBA Betting?
Home teams covered the spread in 49.4% of regular-season games over the last 10 seasons.
The Memphis Grizzlies were the best home team over that time, covering in 53.7% of games.
The Minnesota Timberwolves were the worst home team, covering in 45.1% of games.
How Often Do Road Teams Cover in NBA Betting?
Road teams covered the spread in 50.6% of regular-season games over the last 10 seasons.
The Celtics were the best road team over that time, covering in 56.1% of games.
The Cleveland Cavaliers were the worst road team, covering in 44.3% of games.
How Often Do Favorites Win in NBA Betting?
Favorites won 68% of regular-season games over the last 10 seasons.
The Golden State Warriors had the best record as a moneyline favorite over that time, winning 76% of games.
The Detroit Pistons had the worst record as a moneyline favorite, winning 60% of games.
How Often Do Underdogs Win in NBA Betting?
Underdogs won 32% of regular-season games over the last 10 seasons.
The Boston Celtics had the best record as moneyline underdog over that time, winning 40% of games.
The Pistons had the worst record as a moneyline underdog, winning 26% of games.
How Often Do Home Teams Win in NBA Betting?
Home teams won 57% of regular-season games over the last 10 seasons.
The Warriors had the best moneyline home record over that time, winning 74% of games.
The Pistons had the worst moneyline home record, winning 43% of games.
How Often Do Road Teams Win in NBA Betting?
Road teams won 43% of regular-season games over the last 10 seasons.
The Warriors had the best moneyline road record over that time, winning 58% of games.
The Pistons had the moneyline worst road record, winning 29% of games.
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