NBA Play-In Tournament Predictions: Best Bets on the Board

Every single NBA team played its 82nd game of the regular season on Sunday. You know what that means.

It’s play-in time.

As it has every year since 2021, the NBA will stage six games to finalize the NBA playoff picture. The two four winners will face off against high seeds in the coming weeks, while the four losers will begin their offseason this week. 

Wherever there are games, the BetMGM online sportsbook has odds. And wherever there are odds, I’m looking to find an edge. 

Here’s how I’m betting this week’s play-in games. 

NBA Play-In Tournament: Hawks at Magic Prediction

This is probably the most even of the first four play-in matchups, with Orlando and Atlanta both playing slightly-better-than-.500 ball since the All-Star break. 

I don’t see much edge in going against the current numbers with any spread or total play. The Magic and Hawks have split four games this season, with all four being reasonably competitive. All four scored between 215 and 230 points, too – a remarkably consistent offensive output, given the three-point variance that has controlled league results over the last decade. 

I’d lean toward taking the points with Atlanta, but my top interest here is in the prop market. Assuming Paolo Banchero is healthy and able to play, he has torched Atlanta in all three of the head-to-head opportunities he’s had this year – at least 30 points in all three games. The Hawks don’t seem to have a defensive wing that can stop him.

I’ll be on Banchero points props, and I’ll supplement with a double-double ticket, too. Banchero has gone for 30 & 10 in two of the three outings this year as it is, and the tougher defense of the NBA postseason can often mean there are more opportunities for rebounds. 

Hawks at Magic Prediction: Banchero Over 29.5 Points (-110); Hawks +5.5 (Lean)

NBA Play-In Tournament: Grizzlies at Warriors Prediction

Here are two teams going in opposite directions. The Warriors have felt like a real contender in the West since acquiring Jimmy Butler at the trade deadline, while Memphis just fired their coach. Rumor is that the Grizzlies could look to stealth shop Ja Morant this summer.

Given all that, it’s not surprising to see the Warriors priced as a comfortable favorite in this 7/8 game in San Francisco. 

I prefer the more conservative play with Warriors -295, and you can always pair that with something else for a two-leg parlay if moneyline favorites aren’t your thing. 

I’d prefer not to lay 6.5 points in what is essentially a playoff game, but if you made me bet a spread in this game, I’m sure not betting Memphis. 

Grizzlies at Warriors Prediction: Warriors -295

NBA Play-In Tournament: Heat at Bulls Prediction

The casual interpretation of the Bulls and Heat is that Chicago is permanently stuck in no man’s land, enduring years of fruitless play-in games and first-round blowouts. They can’t bottom out, and they can’t crack the lottery. They’re stuck in irrelevancy as a No. 9 seed.

Miami, meanwhile, is the total opposite. The Heat are constant overachievers thanks to A-plus coaching and A-plus organizational management. It’s everything that the Bulls are not.

Factor in home-court advantage at the United Center, and we’ve got a pick ’em. Or something like that. Right?

Well, I did say that’s the casual interpretation for a reason. 

In reality, Chicago is 15-7 since March 1 and has really figured something out with its roster during the final months of the season. Over that same stretch, the Jimmy Butler-less Miami Heat are 9-15 – one of the 10 worst teams in the league.

This may not look like a Warriors-Grizzlies situation at first blush, but it is. These are two completely different teams, and the game should be priced like it. Instead, the market thinks it’s a coin flip. 

I have a very large position on Bulls -115. This is my favorite bet of the play-in games so far. I can’t even believe it’s available.

Heat at Bulls Prediction: Bulls -115

NBA Play-In Tournament: Mavericks at Kings Prediction

The Mavericks have been a bit of a mystery box since the trade deadline, as it’s hard to know how good or healthy they’ll be at any given time. I’ll give this cap a go anyway, though.

The Kings are 3-0 against Dallas this year and are an offensive dynamo with their reconstructed team. There’s a good case that the Kings put Dallas fans out of their misery in this 9/10 game, and 4.5 points seems like a manageable advantage to give away when you’re betting on a team as offensively prolific as Sacramento.

But there’s also a good case for a major zag here. Who in their right mind is betting the Dallas moneyline in a playoff spot right now? 

This market is going to slant heavily toward the Kings; I could see a scenario where the Mavs moneyline reaches +200 or longer. I think there’d be a strong, value-based case for chasing the return in a one-game situation there with a Dallas team that still has Anthony Davis and a lot of playoff experience. 

This is a picks and predictions column, so mark me down for Kings -4.5. But in real life, I’m passing on this game for now and waiting to see where the numbers are on Wednesday night. I won’t be afraid to pull a super contrarian move with Dallas if the price is right. 

Mavericks at Kings Prediction: Kings -4.5 (Lean)

NBA Play-In Tournament Predictions & Bets

• Paolo Banchero Over 29.5 Points
• Warriors -295
• Bulls -115