Nuggets vs Lakers Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Apr. 27

  • The Nuggets are -3.5 favorites vs. the Lakers
  • Total (Over/Under): 218.5 points
  • Watch the game on ABC

The Denver Nuggets visit Crypto.com Arena to take on the Los Angeles Lakers on Saturday. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:30pm EDT in Los Angeles, CA.

The Nuggets are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-110).

The Nuggets vs Lakers Over/Under is 218.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Nuggets are 40-43 against the spread, while the Lakers are 41-46 against the spread.


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Nuggets vs. Lakers Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Denver Nuggets-3.5 -110O 218.5 -110-165
Los Angeles Lakers +3.5 -110U 218.5 -110+135

Lakers vs Nuggets Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Nuggets will win Saturday‘s game with 68.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Nuggets and Lakers.

Lakers vs Nuggets Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Nuggets will cover the spread for Saturday‘s game with 59.6% confidence.


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  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Moneyline in 70 of their last 96 games (+22.80 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Game Total Under in 57 of their last 96 games (+16.35 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 32 of their last 47 away games (+14.80 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 19 of their last 25 games (+12.90 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 54 of their last 93 games (+12.60 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 37 games (+20.30 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 35 of their last 48 games at home (+19.95 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have hit the 1H Moneyline in 30 of their last 47 games (+16.85 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 40 of their last 65 games (+13.25 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 29 of their last 47 games (+12.70 Units / 18% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Nuggets have gone 40-43 (-7.3 Units / -7.8% ROI).

  • 60-25 against the Moneyline (+14.95 Units / 4.65% ROI)
  • 34-49 against the Over for game total points (-19.9 Units / -21.27% ROI)
  • 49-34 against the Under for game total points (+11.65 Units / 12.47% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Lakers have gone 41-46 (-9.6 Units / -10.03% ROI).

  • 49-38 against the Moneyline (+14.45 Units / 7.72% ROI)
  • 47-39 against the Over for game total points (+4.1 Units / 4.28% ROI)
  • 39-47 against the Under for game total points (-12.65 Units / -13.23% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 36 of their last 98 games (-33.75 Units / -30% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 32 of their last 85 games (-25.35 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have only hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 40 of their last 97 games (-24.15 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have only covered the 4Q Spread in 27 of their last 70 games (-18.45 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have only hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 71 games (-18.15 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 36 of their last 93 games (-25.75 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 96 games (-25.70 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 37 of their last 91 games (-24.45 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 15 of their last 47 away games (-21.35 Units / -40% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 18 away games (-16.20 Units / -54% ROI)

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Denver Nuggets: Keys to the Game vs. the Los Angeles Lakers

The Nuggets were 15-3 (.833) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .556

The Nuggets are 27-6 (.818) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .579

The Nuggets are 50-8 (.862) when scoring 110 or more points this season — 2nd-best in the NBA. The Lakers have allowed 117.4 points per game this season — 8th-worst in the NBA.

The Nuggets are 35-13 (.729) when attempting 25 or more free throws since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: .548

Los Angeles Lakers: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Nuggets

The Lakers are 18-1 (.947) when forcing an eFG of 50% or worse this season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .822

The Lakers are 23-13 (.639) when shooting 80% or better from the free throw line this season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .543

The Lakers were 9-24 (.273) when losing the rebounding margin last season — 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .366

The Lakers are 0-7 (.000) when scoring fewer than 100 points since the start of the 2022-23 season — T-worst in the NBA. The Nuggets have allowed 111.0 points per game since the start of the 2022-23 season — 5th-best in the NBA.

Injury Report: Lakers vs. NuggetsSaturday‘s Game, Apr. 27

  • Cam Reddish (Los Angeles Lakers): Ankle, Game Time Decision
  • Jarred Vanderbilt (Los Angeles Lakers): Foot, Game Time Decision
  • Christian Wood (Los Angeles Lakers): Knee, Game Time Decision
  • Jalen Hood-Schifino (Los Angeles Lakers): Back, Out For Season
  • Collin Gillespie (Denver Nuggets): Knee, Out
  • Vlatko Cancar (Denver Nuggets): Knee, Out For Season

Denver Nuggets Offensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets shot 52% (1,889/3,652) in the first half last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

The Nuggets averaged 29.9 assists per game (1,227 assists/41 games) at home last season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 25.6

The Nuggets shot 50% (3,574/7,088) last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

The Nuggets shot 51% (1,831/3,563) at home last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

Los Angeles Lakers Offensive Stats & Trends

The Lakers have averaged 4.7 second chance points per game (384 points/82 games) in the second half this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.1

The Lakers have averaged 30.1 points in the paint per game (2,470 points/82 games) in the first half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 25.4

The Lakers have 24.2 free throw attempts per game this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 21.7

The Lakers have averaged 10.5 second chance points per game (860 points/82 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.8

Denver Nuggets Defensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets have blocked 457 shots this season — 10th most among NBA teams

The Nuggets have averaged 35.9 defensive rebounds per game (2,946 rebounds/82 games) this season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Nuggets have averaged 35.5 defensive rebounds per game (5,822 rebounds/164 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.3

The Nuggets have allowed 11.3 made three-pointers per game since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 12.6

Los Angeles Lakers Defensive Stats & Trends

The Lakers averaged 38.0 defensive rebounds per game (3,116 rebounds/82 games) last season — tied for 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Lakers have averaged 37.6 defensive rebounds per game (6,163 rebounds/164 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.3

The Lakers have averaged 37.2 defensive rebounds per game (3,047 rebounds/82 games) this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Lakers have averaged 6.9 steals per game (1,131 steals/164 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.4


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