- The Nuggets are -5.5 favorites vs. the Mavericks
- Total (Over/Under): 229.5 points
- Watch the game on ALT | KFAA
The Denver Nuggets visit American Airlines Center to take on the Dallas Mavericks on Sunday. Tipoff is scheduled for 3:00pm EST in Dallas, TX, USA.
The Nuggets are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -5.5 (-110).
The Nuggets vs Mavericks Over/Under is 229.5 total points for the game.
So far this NBA season, the Nuggets are 17-19 against the spread, while the Mavericks are 19-18 against the spread.
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Nuggets vs. Mavericks Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline
Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
Denver Nuggets | -5.5 -110 | O 229.5 -115 | -225 |
Dallas Mavericks | +5.5 -110 | U 229.5 -105 | +180 |
Mavericks vs Nuggets Prediction for Tonight’s Game:
The winning team model predicts the Nuggets will win Sunday‘s game with 73.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Nuggets and Mavericks.
Mavericks vs Nuggets Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Nuggets will cover the spread for Sunday‘s game with 59.6% confidence.
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Nuggets Best Bets for Tonight:
- The Denver Nuggets have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 35 games (+11.90 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 24 of their last 35 games (+11.40 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Denver Nuggets have hit the Team Total Over in 24 of their last 35 games (+11.35 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 24 of their last 35 games (+11.25 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Denver Nuggets have covered the 3Q Spread in 31 of their last 50 games (+8.90 Units / 15% ROI)
Mavericks Best Bets for Tonight:
- The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 31 of their last 42 games at home (+19.45 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Dallas Mavericks have covered the 4Q Spread in 50 of their last 79 games (+18.68 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Dallas Mavericks have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 47 games at home (+15.50 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Dallas Mavericks have covered the Spread in 55 of their last 93 games (+15.40 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 28 of their last 41 games at home (+13.15 Units / 28% ROI)
Denver Nuggets Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:
Against the spread this NBA season, the Nuggets have gone 17-19 (-3.9 Units / -9.58% ROI).
- 22-15 against the Moneyline (-4.4 Units / -4.94% ROI)
- 24-13 against the Over for game total points (+9.7 Units / 23.83% ROI)
- 13-24 against the Under for game total points (-13.4 Units / -32.92% ROI)
Dallas Mavericks Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:
Against the spread this NBA season, the Mavericks have gone 19-18 (-0.8 Units / -1.91% ROI).
- 22-16 against the Moneyline (+1.45 Units / 1.5% ROI)
- 19-19 against the Over for game total points (-1.9 Units / -4.55% ROI)
- 19-19 against the Under for game total points (-1.9 Units / -4.55% ROI)
Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Mavericks:
- The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 13 of their last 40 games at home (-34.00 Units / -48% ROI)
- The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 37 of their last 99 games (-32.52 Units / -28% ROI)
- The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 100 games (-23.90 Units / -22% ROI)
- The Dallas Mavericks have only covered the 1Q Spread in 36 of their last 88 games (-22.90 Units / -23% ROI)
- The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 21 of their last 45 games at home (-20.75 Units / -21% ROI)
Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Nuggets:
- The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 38 of their last 81 games (-36.85 Units / -20% ROI)
- The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 41 of their last 90 games (-32.95 Units / -23% ROI)
- The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 21 of their last 52 games (-30.35 Units / -36% ROI)
- The Denver Nuggets have only covered the 1H Spread in 20 of their last 59 games (-25.15 Units / -37% ROI)
- The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 14 of their last 40 away games (-22.86 Units / -38% ROI)
Jump to:
- Keys to Winning for the Denver Nuggets
- Keys to Winning for the Dallas Mavericks
- Player Injuries for Denver Nuggets vs. Dallas Mavericks
- Denver Nuggets Offensive stats
- Dallas Mavericks Offensive stats
- Denver Nuggets Defensive stats
- Dallas Mavericks Defensive stats
Denver Nuggets: Keys to the Game vs. the Dallas Mavericks
The Nuggets were 13-1 (.929) when forcing 10 or more steals last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .572
The Nuggets were 10-7 (.588) when scoring fewer than 10 second chance points last season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .466
The Nuggets are 7-2 (.778) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points this season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .561
The Nuggets were 37-3 (.925) when shooting 50% or better from the field last season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .789
Dallas Mavericks: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Nuggets
The Mavericks are 16-9 (.640) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points since the start of the 2023-24 season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .541
The Mavericks are 13-5 (.722) when scoring more second chance points than their opponent this season — 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .564
The Mavericks are 32-25 (.561) when allowing 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2023-24 season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .445
The Mavericks are 34-14 (.708) when scoring 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2023-24 season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .553
Denver Nuggets Offensive Stats & Trends
The Nuggets have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.9 (143 assists/ 50 TOs) in close and late situations this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.7
The Nuggets have averaged 15.3 assists per game (566 assists/37 games) in the second half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.5
The Nuggets have averaged 20.1 fast break points per game (745 points/37 games) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 15.5
The Nuggets have averaged 10.4 fast break points per game (386 points/37 games) in the first half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.9
Dallas Mavericks Offensive Stats & Trends
The Mavericks have averaged 6.2 turnovers per game (747 turnovers/120 games) in the second half since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 6.9
The Mavericks made 14.7 three-pointers per game last season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.8
The Mavericks averaged 48.0 points in the paint per game (3,932 points/82 games) last season — 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 50.3
The Mavericks had an assist to turnover ratio of 2.5 (240 assists/ 95 TOs) in close and late situations last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8
Denver Nuggets Defensive Stats & Trends
The Nuggets have averaged 37.0 defensive rebounds per game (1,368 rebounds/37 games) this season — 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.5
The Nuggets have averaged 4.7 blocks per game (174 blocks/37 games) this season — tied for 8th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1
The Nuggets have averaged 36.3 defensive rebounds per game (4,314 rebounds/119 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.3
The Nuggets averaged 35.9 defensive rebounds per game (2,946 rebounds/82 games) last season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2
Dallas Mavericks Defensive Stats & Trends
The Mavericks have averaged 36.3 defensive rebounds per game (1,381 rebounds/38 games) this season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.5
The Mavericks averaged 36.0 defensive rebounds per game (2,951 rebounds/82 games) last season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2
The Mavericks have averaged 36.1 defensive rebounds per game (4,332 rebounds/120 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.3
The Mavericks have averaged 5.9 blocks per game (224 blocks/38 games) this season — 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1
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