Nuggets vs Spurs Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Mar. 15

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Mar 15, 2024, 5:30 PM
  • The Nuggets are -10.5 favorites vs. the Spurs
  • Total (Over/Under): 221.5 points
  • Watch the game on KENS | ALT

The Denver Nuggets visit Moody Center to take on the San Antonio Spurs on Friday. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:30pm EDT in Austin, TX.

The Nuggets are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at ().

The Nuggets vs Spurs Over/Under is total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Nuggets are 30-34 against the spread, while the Spurs are 33-33 against the spread.


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Nuggets vs. Spurs Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Denver Nuggets O
San Antonio Spurs U

Spurs vs Nuggets Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Nuggets will win Friday‘s game with 87.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Nuggets and Spurs.

Spurs vs Nuggets Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Spurs will cover the spread for Friday‘s game with 53.0% confidence.


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  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Moneyline in 63 of their last 87 games (+25.10 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 64 of their last 99 games (+23.75 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Game Total Under in 60 of their last 99 games (+20.45 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 56 of their last 94 games (+15.35 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 27 of their last 38 away games (+14.40 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The San Antonio Spurs have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 37 of their last 74 games (+20.95 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The San Antonio Spurs have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 25 of their last 44 games (+13.15 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The San Antonio Spurs have covered the 4Q Spread in 29 of their last 44 games (+12.50 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The San Antonio Spurs have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 18 of their last 33 games (+12.00 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The San Antonio Spurs have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 35 games (+12.00 Units / 31% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Nuggets have gone 30-34 (-7.4 Units / -10.19% ROI).

  • 46-20 against the Moneyline (+13.2 Units / 5.74% ROI)
  • 25-39 against the Over for game total points (-17.9 Units / -24.64% ROI)
  • 39-25 against the Under for game total points (+11.55 Units / 15.92% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Spurs have gone 33-33 (-3.3 Units / -4.55% ROI).

  • 14-52 against the Moneyline (-20.4 Units / -29.61% ROI)
  • 31-33 against the Over for game total points (-5.3 Units / -7.3% ROI)
  • 33-31 against the Under for game total points (-1.1 Units / -1.52% ROI)
  • The San Antonio Spurs have only hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 61 games (-25.75 Units / -41% ROI)
  • The San Antonio Spurs have only covered the 2Q Spread in 30 of their last 78 games (-24.15 Units / -27% ROI)
  • The San Antonio Spurs have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 20 of their last 68 games (-20.35 Units / -29% ROI)
  • The San Antonio Spurs have only covered the 3Q Spread in 28 of their last 69 games (-17.35 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The San Antonio Spurs have only hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 33 of their last 75 games (-15.70 Units / -18% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 35 of their last 99 games (-37.70 Units / -34% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 99 games (-30.00 Units / -28% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 36 of their last 94 games (-27.30 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 38 away games (-19.60 Units / -45% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the Team Total Over in 45 of their last 99 games (-18.00 Units / -16% ROI)

Jump to:

Denver Nuggets: Keys to the Game vs. the San Antonio Spurs

The Nuggets were 15-3 (.833) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .556

The Nuggets were 24-7 (.774) when they win the turnover margin last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .540

The Nuggets are 29-2 (.935) when shooting 50% or better from the field this season — T-3rd-best in the NBA. The Spurs have allowed opponents to shoot 49% this season — 6th-worst in the NBA.

The Nuggets are 22-4 (.846) when forcing 10 or more steals since the start of the 2022-23 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .595

San Antonio Spurs: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Nuggets

The Spurs were winless (0-36) when allowing their opponent to shoot 40% or better from three last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .297

The Spurs are 4-18 (.182) when allowing 15 or more fastbreak points this season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .440

The Spurs are 11-58 (.159) when losing the rebounding margin since the start of the 2022-23 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .361

The Spurs were 1-13 (.071) when scoring fewer than 10 second chance points last season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .444

Injury Report: Spurs vs. NuggetsFriday‘s Game, Mar. 15

  • Marcus Morris Sr. (San Antonio Spurs): Not Injury Related, Out
  • Charles Bassey (San Antonio Spurs): Knee, Out For Season
  • Vlatko Cancar (Denver Nuggets): Knee, Out
  • Hunter Tyson (Denver Nuggets): Finger, Out
  • Jamal Murray (Denver Nuggets): Lower Leg, Out

Denver Nuggets Offensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets shot 52% (1,889/3,652) in the first half last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

The Nuggets shot 51% (1,831/3,563) at home last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

The Nuggets have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.3 (1,548 assists/ 682 TOs) this season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 2.0

The Nuggets have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.5 (762 assists/ 305 TOs) at home this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 2.0

San Antonio Spurs Offensive Stats & Trends

The Spurs are shooting 33% from three (331/999) in the second half this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 37%

The Spurs averaged 1.22 points per shot (9,269 points/7,593 shots) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.30

The Spurs had 21.2 free throw attempts per game last season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 23.5

The Spurs averaged 1.19 points per shot (4,551 points/3,809 shots) on the road last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.28

Denver Nuggets Defensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets allowed opponents to shoot 33% from three (449/1,382) at home last season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 36%

The Nuggets have averaged 6.8 steals per game (365 steals/54 games) this season — tied for 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.4

The Nuggets allowed opponents to shoot 34% from three (933/2,711) last season — tied for 2nd best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 36%

The Nuggets have allowed 11.4 made three-pointers per game this season — 2nd best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 12.8

San Antonio Spurs Defensive Stats & Trends

The Spurs allowed opponents to shoot 51% (3,780/7,460) last season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 48%

The Spurs allowed a TS% of 54% in the second half last season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 51%

The Spurs allowed opponents to shoot 40% from three (517/1,300) in the second half last season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 36%

The Spurs allowed a TS% of 54% on the road last season — 2nd highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 52%


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.