Nuggets vs Timberwolves Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Oct. 17

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 17, 2024, 1:27 PM
  • The Nuggets are -7.5 favorites vs. the Timberwolves
  • Total (Over/Under): 222.5 points
  • Watch the game on BSN

The Denver Nuggets visit Target Center to take on the Minnesota Timberwolves on Thursday. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EDT in Minneapolis, MN.

The Nuggets are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -7.5 (-105).

The Nuggets vs Timberwolves Over/Under is 222.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Nuggets are 0-4 against the spread, while the Timberwolves are 2-2 against the spread.


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Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Denver Nuggets-7.5 -105O 222.5 -115-275
Minnesota Timberwolves +7.5 -115U 222.5 -105+220

Timberwolves vs Nuggets Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Timberwolves will win Thursday‘s game with 74.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Nuggets and Timberwolves.

Timberwolves vs Nuggets Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Timberwolves will cover the spread for Thursday‘s game with 70.7% confidence.


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  • The Denver Nuggets have covered the 1Q Spread in 57 of their last 94 games (+14.25 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 51 of their last 84 games (+12.80 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Game Total Under in 54 of their last 94 games (+12.25 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 54 of their last 94 games (+11.45 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 27 of their last 41 away games (+10.90 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have covered the 3Q Spread in 54 of their last 86 games (+18.15 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 45 of their last 72 games (+15.00 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 53 of their last 92 games (+10.85 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 43 games at home (+9.15 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have hit the Moneyline in 64 of their last 95 games (+8.75 Units / 3% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA preseason, the Nuggets have gone 0-4 (-4.38 Units / -100% ROI).

  • 0-4 against the Moneyline (-5.5 Units / -100% ROI)
  • 2-2 against the Over for game total points (-0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI)
  • 2-2 against the Under for game total points (-0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA preseason, the Timberwolves have gone 2-2 (-0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI).

  • 2-2 against the Moneyline (-0.95 Units / -15.89% ROI)
  • 3-1 against the Over for game total points (+1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI)
  • 1-3 against the Under for game total points (-2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 44 of their last 89 games (-32.15 Units / -16% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have only covered the 1Q Spread in 36 of their last 91 games (-26.65 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 26 of their last 72 games (-25.45 Units / -31% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have only hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 37 of their last 92 games (-24.10 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 44 of their last 91 games (-22.15 Units / -14% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 37 of their last 94 games (-25.00 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 33 of their last 84 games (-24.80 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 94 games (-21.40 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the Team Total Over in 38 of their last 86 games (-18.15 Units / -18% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 36 of their last 65 games (-17.30 Units / -10% ROI)

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Denver Nuggets: Keys to the Game vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves

The Nuggets were 15-3 (.833) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .556

The Nuggets were 26-9 (.743) when they win the turnover margin last season — 3rd-best in the NBA. The Timberwolves averaged 14.2 turnovers per game (1,163 turnovers/82 games) last season — 9th-highest in the NBA.

The Nuggets are 30-4 (.882) when forcing 10 or more steals since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .590

The Nuggets were 17-13 (.567) when allowing 15 or more second chance points last season — tied for 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .466

Minnesota Timberwolves: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Nuggets

The Timberwolves were 24-2 (.923) when scoring 15 or more fastbreak points last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .566

The Timberwolves were 14-6 (.700) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points last season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .556

The Timberwolves were 1-10 (.091) when allowing an eFG of 60% or better last season — 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .142

The Timberwolves were 17-13 (.567) when scoring fewer than 10 second chance points last season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .444

Injury Report: Timberwolves vs. NuggetsThursday‘s Game, Oct. 17

  • Minnesota Timberwolves – No Injuries Reported
  • Denver Nuggets – No Injuries Reported

Denver Nuggets Offensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets shot 52% (1,889/3,652) in the first half last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

The Nuggets shot 50% (3,574/7,088) last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

The Nuggets have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.3 (2,497 assists/ 1,094 TOs) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.9

The Nuggets averaged 28.9 assists per game (2,369 assists/82 games) last season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 25.3

Minnesota Timberwolves Offensive Stats & Trends

The Timberwolves had an assist to turnover ratio of 1.7 (2,145 assists/ 1,258 TOs) last season — tied for 4th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

The Timberwolves averaged 12.4 fast break points per game (1,016 points/82 games) last season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.4

The Timberwolves averaged 14.7 fast break points per game (1,206 points/82 games) last season — tied for 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.0

The Timberwolves shot 50% (1,763/3,553) on the road last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

Denver Nuggets Defensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets averaged 35.9 defensive rebounds per game (2,946 rebounds/82 games) last season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Nuggets averaged 5.6 blocks per game (457 blocks/82 games) last season — tied for 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

The Nuggets blocked 457 shots last season — 10th most among NBA teams

The Nuggets have averaged 35.5 defensive rebounds per game (5,822 rebounds/164 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.3

Minnesota Timberwolves Defensive Stats & Trends

The Timberwolves averaged 5.4 blocks per game (444 blocks/82 games) last season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Timberwolves allowed a TS% of 48% at home last season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 51%

The Timberwolves allowed opponents to shoot 44% (1,519/3,480) in the second half last season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 47%

The Timberwolves allowed an eFG% of 50% in the second half last season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 54%


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.