Pacers vs Bucks Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Apr. 21

  • The Pacers are -1.5 favorites vs. the Bucks
  • Total (Over/Under): 231.5 points
  • Watch the game on TNT

The Indiana Pacers visit Fiserv Forum to take on the Milwaukee Bucks on Sunday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EDT in Milwaukee, WI.

The Pacers are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -1.5 (-105).

The Pacers vs Bucks Over/Under is 231.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Pacers are 44-36 against the spread, while the Bucks are 35-46 against the spread.


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Pacers vs. Bucks Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Indiana Pacers-1.5 -105O 231.5 -110-115
Milwaukee Bucks +1.5 -115U 231.5 -110-105

Bucks vs Pacers Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Pacers will win Sunday‘s game with 55.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Pacers and Bucks.

Bucks vs Pacers Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Pacers will cover the spread for Sunday‘s game with 52.7% confidence.


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  • The Indiana Pacers have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 39 of their last 56 games (+19.45 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 30 away games (+13.20 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have hit the Team Total Over in 47 of their last 79 games (+11.85 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 45 of their last 77 games (+10.40 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have hit the 1H Moneyline in 12 of their last 17 games (+8.50 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have covered the 1Q Spread in 23 of their last 33 games at home (+12.70 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 56 games (+11.50 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 15 of their last 19 games at home (+10.40 Units / 48% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have covered the 1H Spread in 25 of their last 40 games at home (+9.85 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 17 of their last 25 games at home (+9.00 Units / 31% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Pacers have gone 44-36 (+4.4 Units / 4.82% ROI).

  • 47-36 against the Moneyline (-0.75 Units / -0.43% ROI)
  • 41-40 against the Over for game total points (-3.05 Units / -3.38% ROI)
  • 40-41 against the Under for game total points (-5.1 Units / -5.66% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Bucks have gone 35-46 (-15.6 Units / -17.31% ROI).

  • 49-33 against the Moneyline (-42.2 Units / -14.58% ROI)
  • 41-41 against the Over for game total points (-4.1 Units / -4.55% ROI)
  • 41-41 against the Under for game total points (-4.1 Units / -4.55% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the Moneyline in 49 of their last 85 games (-54.00 Units / -18% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 37 of their last 68 games (-27.40 Units / -16% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only covered the 4Q Spread in 13 of their last 43 games at home (-20.80 Units / -43% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the Team Total Over in 20 of their last 56 games (-20.15 Units / -31% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 45 of their last 85 games (-19.90 Units / -12% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 17 of their last 56 games (-27.20 Units / -43% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have only hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 83 games (-23.30 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have only hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 31 of their last 79 games (-22.00 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have only hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 34 of their last 83 games (-21.10 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 13 of their last 42 away games (-18.15 Units / -34% ROI)

Jump to:

Indiana Pacers: Keys to the Game vs. the Milwaukee Bucks

The Pacers are winless (0-9) when shooting 40% or worse from the field since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .116

The Pacers are 9-5 (.643) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points this season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .532

The Pacers were 16-20 (.444) when scoring 15 or more second chance points last season — 8th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .531

The Pacers are 24-8 (.750) when winning the rebounding margin this season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .643

Milwaukee Bucks: Keys to the Game vs. the Indiana Pacers

The Bucks were 27-11 (.711) when allowing 15 or more second chance points last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .466

The Bucks were 47-8 (.855) when scoring 110 or more points last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .643

The Bucks were 25-7 (.781) when attempting 25 or more free throws last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .543

The Bucks are 34-3 (.919) when shooting 50% or better from the field this season — 6th-best in the NBA. The Pacers have allowed opponents to shoot 50% this season — T-worst in the NBA.

Injury Report: Bucks vs. PacersSunday‘s Game, Apr. 21

  • AJ Green (Milwaukee Bucks): Ankle, Game Time Decision
  • Giannis Antetokounmpo (Milwaukee Bucks): Calf, Game Time Decision
  • Jaylin Galloway (Milwaukee Bucks): Ankle, Out For Season
  • Bennedict Mathurin (Indiana Pacers): Shoulder, Out For Season

Indiana Pacers Offensive Stats & Trends

The Pacers have averaged 57.9 points in the paint per game (4,746 points/82 games) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 50.3

The Pacers have averaged 58.0 points in the paint per game (2,376 points/41 games) on the road this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 49.7

The Pacers have averaged 17.3 fast break points per game (2,838 points/164 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.3

The Pacers averaged 3.1 fast break points per game (204 points/66 games) in close and late situations last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 2.0

Milwaukee Bucks Offensive Stats & Trends

The Bucks have averaged 1.39 points per shot (4,829 points/3,483 shots) in the second half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.31

The Bucks have averaged 1.44 points per shot (1,358 points/940 shots) in close and late situations this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.32

The Bucks have averaged 119.0 points per game (9,756 points/82 games) this season — 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 114.3

The Bucks have averaged 13.1 second chance points per game (1,073 points/82 games) this season — 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.8

Indiana Pacers Defensive Stats & Trends

The Pacers have averaged 33.7 defensive rebounds per game (2,763 rebounds/82 games) this season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Pacers averaged 33.3 defensive rebounds per game (2,730 rebounds/82 games) last season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Pacers averaged 5.8 blocks per game (478 blocks/82 games) last season — tied for 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Pacers have allowed 58.4 points in the paint per game (4,788 points/82 games) this season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 50.3

Milwaukee Bucks Defensive Stats & Trends

The Bucks have averaged 38.3 defensive rebounds per game (6,289 rebounds/164 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.3

The Bucks averaged 39.7 defensive rebounds per game (3,254 rebounds/82 games) last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Bucks have averaged 37.0 defensive rebounds per game (3,035 rebounds/82 games) this season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Bucks allowed a TS% of 49% on the road last season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 52%


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