Pacers vs Nuggets Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Jan. 14

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jan 14, 2024, 4:30 PM
  • The Nuggets are -10.5 favorites vs. the Pacers
  • Total (Over/Under): 240.5 points
  • Watch the game on ALT | BSIN

The Indiana Pacers visit Ball Arena to take on the Denver Nuggets on Sunday. Tipoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EST in Denver, CO.

The Nuggets are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -10.5 (-110).

The Pacers vs Nuggets Over/Under is 239.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Pacers are 22-16 against the spread, while the Nuggets are 18-21 against the spread.


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Pacers vs. Nuggets Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Indiana Pacers+10.5 -110O 239.5 -105+400
Denver Nuggets -10.5 -110U 239.5 -115-550

Nuggets vs Pacers Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Nuggets will win Sunday‘s game with 87.2% confidence, factoring in recent team & player performances for the Pacers and Nuggets, plus player injuries and defensive & offensive matchups.

Nuggets vs Pacers Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Nuggets will cover the spread for Sunday‘s game with 53.7% confidence.


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  • The Indiana Pacers have hit the Team Total Over in 43 of their last 62 games (+21.10 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 43 of their last 64 games (+20.25 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 25 of their last 39 away games (+19.70 Units / 47% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 31 away games (+16.50 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 62 games (+14.85 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 65 of their last 100 games (+25.80 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Moneyline in 41 of their last 50 games at home (+16.60 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 43 of their last 68 games (+16.40 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 73 games (+14.30 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 34 of their last 53 games (+12.65 Units / 15% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Pacers have gone 22-16 (+4.4 Units / 10.26% ROI).

  • 23-16 against the Moneyline (+3.3 Units / 4.91% ROI)
  • 24-13 against the Over for game total points (+9.65 Units / 22.44% ROI)
  • 13-24 against the Under for game total points (-13.35 Units / -31.19% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Nuggets have gone 18-21 (-5.2 Units / -11.74% ROI).

  • 27-13 against the Moneyline (+4 Units / 3.21% ROI)
  • 16-23 against the Over for game total points (-9.3 Units / -21.14% ROI)
  • 23-16 against the Under for game total points (+5.4 Units / 12.27% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 35 of their last 100 games (-37.75 Units / -34% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 33 of their last 84 games (-23.70 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 73 games (-21.40 Units / -27% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 42 of their last 95 games (-19.45 Units / -16% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 18 of their last 49 games at home (-17.05 Units / -31% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have only hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 62 games (-30.50 Units / -43% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have only hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 28 of their last 78 games (-26.65 Units / -31% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have only hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 66 games (-20.95 Units / -29% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 22 of their last 61 games (-19.90 Units / -30% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 8 of their last 28 games (-17.80 Units / -44% ROI)

Jump to:

Indiana Pacers: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Nuggets

The Pacers are winless (0-3) when scoring fewer than 10 fastbreak points this season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .406

The Pacers are 1-6 (.143) when scoring fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .432

The Pacers were 14-29 (.326) when scoring fewer second chance points than their opponent last season — 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .456

The Pacers are 18-13 (.581) when grabbing 12 or more offensive rebounds this season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .494

Denver Nuggets: Keys to the Game vs. the Indiana Pacers

The Nuggets were 15-3 (.833) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .556

The Nuggets are 11-2 (.846) when attempting 25 or more free throws this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .567

The Nuggets are 23-6 (.793) when scoring 110 or more points this season — 5th-best in the NBA. The Pacers have allowed 123.4 points per game this season — 3rd-worst in the NBA.

The Nuggets are 15-4 (.789) when they win the turnover margin this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .541

Injury Report: Nuggets vs. PacersSunday‘s Game, Jan. 14

  • Vlatko Cancar (Denver Nuggets): Knee, Out
  • Jalen Smith (Indiana Pacers): Heel, Out

Indiana Pacers Offensive Stats & Trends

The Pacers have a TS% of 55% this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 51%

The Pacers have a TS% of 55% in the second half this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 51%

The Pacers have averaged 64.4 points per game (2,446 points/38 games) in the second half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 57.5

The Pacers have an eFG% of 59% in the second half this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 55%

Denver Nuggets Offensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets averaged 29.9 assists per game (1,227 assists/41 games) at home last season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 25.6

The Nuggets shot 52% (1,889/3,652) in the first half last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

The Nuggets shot 51% (1,831/3,563) at home last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

The Nuggets are shooting 51% (2,816/5,514) in the first half since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

Indiana Pacers Defensive Stats & Trends

The Pacers averaged 33.3 defensive rebounds per game (2,730 rebounds/82 games) last season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Pacers have averaged 33.1 defensive rebounds per game (1,258 rebounds/38 games) this season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.1

The Pacers have averaged 6.4 blocks per game (242 blocks/38 games) this season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.2

The Pacers blocked 478 shots last season — 2nd most among NBA teams

Denver Nuggets Defensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets have allowed 11.4 made three-pointers per game since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 12.5

The Nuggets have averaged 4.6 blocks per game (281 blocks/61 games) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for 8th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Nuggets have allowed 12.3 second chance points per game (492 points/40 games) this season — tied for 2nd best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 14.1

The Nuggets have allowed 6.0 second chance points per game (240 points/40 games) in the second half this season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 7.2


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.