Pelicans vs Thunder Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Apr. 21

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Apr 21, 2024, 11:05 AM
  • The Thunder are -8.5 favorites vs. the Pelicans
  • Total (Over/Under): 215.5 points
  • Watch the game on TNT

The New Orleans Pelicans visit Paycom Center to take on the Oklahoma City Thunder on Sunday. Tipoff is scheduled for 9:30pm EDT in Oklahoma City, OK.

The Thunder are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -8.5 (-105).

The Pelicans vs Thunder Over/Under is 215.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Pelicans are 44-38 against the spread, while the Thunder are 46-35 against the spread.


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Pelicans vs. Thunder Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
New Orleans Pelicans+8.5 -115O 215.5 -105+260
Oklahoma City Thunder -8.5 -105U 215.5 -115-350

Thunder vs Pelicans Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Thunder will win Sunday‘s game with 80.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Pelicans and Thunder.

Thunder vs Pelicans Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Thunder will cover the spread for Sunday‘s game with 52.9% confidence.


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  • The New Orleans Pelicans have hit the 1H Moneyline in 55 of their last 80 games (+26.30 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 53 of their last 80 games (+21.65 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 33 away games (+20.35 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have covered the 1H Spread in 46 of their last 74 games (+15.70 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have covered the 1Q Spread in 33 of their last 52 games (+13.45 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 37 games at home (+24.65 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have covered the 3Q Spread in 25 of their last 32 games at home (+16.95 Units / 47% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have covered the Spread in 26 of their last 38 games at home (+12.80 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have covered the 4Q Spread in 44 of their last 73 games (+12.45 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the Team Total Over in 26 of their last 38 games at home (+11.80 Units / 26% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Pelicans have gone 44-38 (+2.2 Units / 2.38% ROI).

  • 50-34 against the Moneyline (+3.6 Units / 1.85% ROI)
  • 36-48 against the Over for game total points (-16.8 Units / -18.18% ROI)
  • 48-36 against the Under for game total points (+8.4 Units / 9.09% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Thunder have gone 46-35 (+7.5 Units / 8.31% ROI).

  • 57-25 against the Moneyline (+16.35 Units / 5.74% ROI)
  • 43-35 against the Over for game total points (+4.5 Units / 4.98% ROI)
  • 35-43 against the Under for game total points (-12.2 Units / -13.54% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 79 games (-21.20 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 22 of their last 58 games (-17.20 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 36 of their last 82 games (-17.00 Units / -18% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 37 of their last 82 games (-13.95 Units / -15% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 71 games (-13.80 Units / -18% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 27 of their last 74 games (-21.80 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 28 of their last 71 games (-19.50 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have only hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 73 games (-17.30 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 18 of their last 48 games (-16.40 Units / -30% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 25 of their last 60 games (-15.20 Units / -22% ROI)

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New Orleans Pelicans: Keys to the Game vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder

The Pelicans are 33-10 (.767) when winning the rebounding margin this season — 7th-best in the NBA. The Thunder have averaged 49.2 rebounds/game this season — 3rd-lowest in the NBA.

The Pelicans are 28-7 (.800) when scoring 15 or more second chance points this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .549

The Pelicans were 22-14 (.611) when attempting 25 or more free throws last season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .543

The Pelicans are undefeated (15-0) when forcing their opponent to shoot 40% or worse from the field since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: .884

Oklahoma City Thunder: Keys to the Game vs. the New Orleans Pelicans

The Thunder were undefeated (9-0) when their eFG is 60% or better last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .808

The Thunder are 39-6 (.867) when scoring 15 or more fastbreak points this season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .566

The Thunder are 40-15 (.727) when they win the turnover margin this season — 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .549

The Thunder were 3-4 (.429) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points last season — 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .554

Injury Report: Thunder vs. PelicansSunday‘s Game, Apr. 21

  • Olivier Sarr (Oklahoma City Thunder): Ankle, Out For Season
  • Zion Williamson (New Orleans Pelicans): Hamstring, Game Time Decision

New Orleans Pelicans Offensive Stats & Trends

The Pelicans have averaged 51.3 points in the paint per game (4,204 points/82 games) this season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 50.3

The Pelicans are shooting 49% (3,484/7,164) this season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

The Pelicans are shooting 41% from three (567/1,401) in the first half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 37%

The Pelicans are shooting 38% from three (1,023/2,673) this season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 37%

Oklahoma City Thunder Offensive Stats & Trends

The Thunder are shooting 41% from three (558/1,378) in the second half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 36%

The Thunder have a TS% of 55% in the second half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 51%

The Thunder are shooting 39% from three (120/305) in close and late situations this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35%

The Thunder have an eFG% of 57% this season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 55%

New Orleans Pelicans Defensive Stats & Trends

The Pelicans have allowed opponents to shoot 33% from three (1,045/3,130) in the first half since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 37%

The Pelicans averaged 8.3 steals per game (681 steals/82 games) last season — tied for 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.3

The Pelicans have averaged 8.3 steals per game (684 steals/82 games) this season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5

The Pelicans allowed opponents to shoot 33% from three (487/1,491) in the first half last season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 36%

Oklahoma City Thunder Defensive Stats & Trends

The Thunder have averaged 8.5 steals per game (694 steals/82 games) this season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5

The Thunder have averaged 6.6 blocks per game (538 blocks/82 games) this season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

The Thunder have allowed 18.0 offensive rebounds per game (2,954 rebounds/164 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 16.2

The Thunder have averaged 8.4 steals per game (1,370 steals/164 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.4


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.