Pistons vs Mavericks Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Apr. 12

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Apr 12, 2024, 4:31 PM
  • The Mavericks are -12.5 favorites vs. the Pistons
  • Total (Over/Under): 219.5 points
  • Watch the game on BSDT | WFAA

The Detroit Pistons visit American Airlines Center to take on the Dallas Mavericks on Friday. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:30pm EDT in Dallas, TX.

The Mavericks are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -13.5 (-110).

The Pistons vs Mavericks Over/Under is 218.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Pistons are 37-40 against the spread, while the Mavericks are 48-32 against the spread.


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Pistons vs. Mavericks Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Detroit Pistons+13.5 -110O 218.5 -110+625
Dallas Mavericks -13.5 -110U 218.5 -110-1000

Mavericks vs Pistons Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Mavericks will win Friday‘s game with 92.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Pistons and Mavericks.

Mavericks vs Pistons Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Mavericks will cover the spread for Friday‘s game with 64.3% confidence.


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  • The Detroit Pistons have covered the 4Q Spread in 28 of their last 40 away games (+15.15 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 16 of their last 27 away games (+13.05 Units / 48% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 21 of their last 28 games (+12.95 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 38 games (+8.60 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have covered the 1Q Spread in 31 of their last 51 games (+7.85 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have covered the Spread in 24 of their last 31 games (+16.30 Units / 48% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 34 of their last 51 games (+15.70 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 55 games (+15.10 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 18 games (+13.90 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 18 games at home (+9.45 Units / 46% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Pistons have gone 37-40 (-7 Units / -7.95% ROI).

  • 13-67 against the Moneyline (-40.2 Units / -47.72% ROI)
  • 40-39 against the Over for game total points (-2.9 Units / -3.3% ROI)
  • 39-40 against the Under for game total points (-5 Units / -5.68% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Mavericks have gone 48-32 (+12.8 Units / 14.56% ROI).

  • 50-30 against the Moneyline (+9.75 Units / 5.65% ROI)
  • 37-43 against the Over for game total points (-10.3 Units / -11.7% ROI)
  • 43-37 against the Under for game total points (+2.3 Units / 2.61% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 37 of their last 80 games (-24.15 Units / -17% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 17 of their last 53 games (-23.35 Units / -38% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 57 games (-20.70 Units / -33% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 20 of their last 51 games (-20.65 Units / -28% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only covered the 3Q Spread in 29 of their last 73 games (-19.45 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have only hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 77 games (-41.95 Units / -52% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 38 away games (-21.65 Units / -57% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 27 of their last 68 games (-19.85 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 4 of their last 28 games (-19.10 Units / -64% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 33 of their last 80 games (-18.40 Units / -20% ROI)

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Detroit Pistons: Keys to the Game vs. the Dallas Mavericks

The Pistons were 4-44 (.083) when they lose the turnover margin last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .460

The Pistons are 5-76 (.062) when losing the rebounding margin since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .361

The Pistons were 6-30 (.167) when scoring fewer second chance points than their opponent last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .456

The Pistons are 4-21 (.160) when attempting 25 or more free throws this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .553

Dallas Mavericks: Keys to the Game vs. the Detroit Pistons

The Mavericks are 23-7 (.767) when winning the rebounding margin this season — T-6th-best in the NBA. The Pistons have averaged 51.0 rebounds/game this season — T-9th-lowest in the NBA.

The Mavericks are 30-15 (.667) when they win the turnover margin this season — T-8th-best in the NBA. The Pistons have averaged 15.3 turnovers per game this season — T-2nd-highest in the NBA.

The Mavericks are undefeated (8-0) when forcing their opponent to shoot 40% or worse from the field since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: .882

The Mavericks are 5-13 (.278) when scoring fewer than 10 fastbreak points this season — 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .399

Injury Report: Mavericks vs. PistonsFriday‘s Game, Apr. 12

  • Dante Exum (Dallas Mavericks): Knee, Game Time Decision
  • Isaiah Stewart (Detroit Pistons): Suspension, Out
  • Quentin Grimes (Detroit Pistons): Knee, Game Time Decision

Detroit Pistons Offensive Stats & Trends

The Pistons had an assist to turnover ratio of 1.4 (886 assists/ 615 TOs) on the road last season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

The Pistons shot 45% (3,244/7,140) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

The Pistons averaged 110.3 points per game (9,045 points/82 games) last season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 114.7

The Pistons had an assist to turnover ratio of 1.5 (1,884 assists/ 1,237 TOs) last season — tied for 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

Dallas Mavericks Offensive Stats & Trends

The Mavericks averaged 42.8 points in the paint per game (3,510 points/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 50.5

The Mavericks have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.5 (237 assists/ 93 TOs) in close and late situations this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

The Mavericks averaged 40.7 points in the paint per game (1,668 points/41 games) on the road last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 50.2

The Mavericks have averaged 43.6 points in the paint per game (3,534 points/81 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 50.2

Detroit Pistons Defensive Stats & Trends

The Pistons have averaged 6.4 steals per game (513 steals/80 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5

The Pistons have forced 11.7 turnovers per game (469 turnovers/40 games) at home this season — lowest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 13.6

The Pistons have averaged 4.2 blocks per game (682 blocks/162 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — 4th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Pistons have averaged 34.3 defensive rebounds per game (5,552 rebounds/162 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.3

Dallas Mavericks Defensive Stats & Trends

The Mavericks averaged 33.8 defensive rebounds per game (2,774 rebounds/82 games) last season — 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Mavericks averaged 3.7 blocks per game (304 blocks/82 games) last season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Mavericks averaged 6.3 steals per game (514 steals/82 games) last season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.3

The Mavericks have averaged 7.0 steals per game (559 steals/80 games) this season — tied for 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5


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