Raptors vs Heat Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Apr. 12

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Apr 12, 2024, 4:31 PM
  • The Heat are -13.5 favorites vs. the Raptors
  • Total (Over/Under): 218.5 points
  • Watch the game on SUN | TSN

The Toronto Raptors visit Kaseya Center to take on the Miami Heat on Friday. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EDT in Miami, FL.

The Heat are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -14.5 (-110).

The Raptors vs Heat Over/Under is 217.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Raptors are 34-45 against the spread, while the Heat are 39-39 against the spread.


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Raptors vs. Heat Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Toronto Raptors+14.5 -110O 217.5 -105+725
Miami Heat -14.5 -110U 217.5 -115-1200

Heat vs Raptors Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Heat will win Friday‘s game with 93.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Raptors and Heat.

Heat vs Raptors Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Heat will cover the spread for Friday‘s game with 62.8% confidence.


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  • The Toronto Raptors have hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 away games (+10.10 Units / 89% ROI)
  • The Toronto Raptors have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 37 away games (+9.70 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Toronto Raptors have hit the Team Total Over in 20 of their last 30 away games (+9.45 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Toronto Raptors have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 47 of their last 80 games (+9.15 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Toronto Raptors have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 25 of their last 39 away games (+9.05 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 35 of their last 50 games (+18.80 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Game Total Under in 55 of their last 89 games (+17.60 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Moneyline in 55 of their last 100 games (+15.25 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 57 of their last 98 games (+14.60 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 54 of their last 99 games (+13.75 Units / 11% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Raptors have gone 34-45 (-15.5 Units / -17.61% ROI).

  • 25-55 against the Moneyline (-29.05 Units / -26.09% ROI)
  • 41-39 against the Over for game total points (-1.9 Units / -2.16% ROI)
  • 39-41 against the Under for game total points (-6 Units / -6.83% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 39-39 (-3.9 Units / -4.43% ROI).

  • 44-36 against the Moneyline (-1.5 Units / -0.99% ROI)
  • 33-47 against the Over for game total points (-18.7 Units / -21.25% ROI)
  • 47-33 against the Under for game total points (+10.7 Units / 12.16% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 37 of their last 96 games (-28.70 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 38 of their last 100 games (-28.00 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 89 games (-26.50 Units / -27% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only covered the 4Q Spread in 34 of their last 83 games (-20.80 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the Team Total Over in 17 of their last 49 games (-20.30 Units / -35% ROI)
  • The Toronto Raptors have only hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 81 games (-31.40 Units / -28% ROI)
  • The Toronto Raptors have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 33 of their last 80 games (-21.40 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Toronto Raptors have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 26 of their last 75 games (-19.90 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Toronto Raptors have only covered the 1Q Spread in 31 of their last 75 games (-19.05 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Toronto Raptors have only covered the Spread in 32 of their last 78 games (-17.50 Units / -20% ROI)

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Toronto Raptors: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The Raptors are 12-25 (.324) when they lose the turnover margin this season — 6th-worst in the NBA. The Heat have averaged 12.6 turnovers per game this season — T-4th-lowest in the NBA.

The Raptors were undefeated (8-0) when making 15 or more three-pointers last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .700

The Raptors were 3-6 (.333) when scoring fewer than 10 second chance points last season — 8th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .444

The Raptors were 18-19 (.486) when attempting 25 or more free throws last season — 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .543

Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Toronto Raptors

The Heat are 31-8 (.795) when scoring 110 or more points this season — T-5th-best in the NBA. The Raptors have allowed 118.7 points per game this season — 7th-worst in the NBA.

The Heat are 32-5 (.865) when shooting 50% or better from the field since the start of the 2022-23 season — 4th-best in the NBA. The Raptors have allowed opponents to shoot 49% since the start of the 2022-23 season — T-4th-worst in the NBA.

The Heat were 20-9 (.690) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points last season — 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .556

The Heat are 34-18 (.654) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2022-23 season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .576

Injury Report: Heat vs. RaptorsFriday‘s Game, Apr. 12

  • Tyler Herro (Miami Heat): Knee, Game Time Decision
  • Thomas Bryant (Miami Heat): Not Injury Related, Game Time Decision
  • Josh Richardson (Miami Heat): Shoulder, Out
  • Dru Smith (Miami Heat): Knee, Out For Season
  • Orlando Robinson (Miami Heat): Back, Out
  • Terry Rozier (Miami Heat): Knee, Out
  • Markquis Nowell (Toronto Raptors): Hamstring, Game Time Decision
  • RJ Barrett (Toronto Raptors): Knee, Out

Toronto Raptors Offensive Stats & Trends

The Raptors have averaged 18.4 fast break points per game (2,974 points/162 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.3

The Raptors averaged 5.8 turnovers per game (476 turnovers/82 games) in the second half last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.0

The Raptors have averaged 18.9 fast break points per game (1,513 points/80 games) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.4

The Raptors have averaged 9.7 fast break points per game (1,577 points/162 games) in the first half since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.6

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat averaged 107.5 points per game (4,408 points/41 games) on the road last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 113.4

The Heat averaged 109.5 points per game (8,977 points/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 114.7

The Heat are shooting 84% from the free throw line (1,515/1,802) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 79%

The Heat have an eFG% of 49% in close and late situations this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 53%

Toronto Raptors Defensive Stats & Trends

The Raptors averaged 9.4 steals per game (772 steals/82 games) last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.3

The Raptors averaged 31.9 defensive rebounds per game (2,615 rebounds/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Raptors stole the ball 772 times last season — most among NBA teams

The Raptors have averaged 8.8 steals per game (722 steals/82 games) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.4

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat averaged 3.0 blocks per game (243 blocks/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (514 blocks/162 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (265 blocks/82 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Heat have averaged 3.4 blocks per game (271 blocks/80 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.2


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.