Spurs vs Nuggets Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Apr. 2

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Apr 02, 2024, 11:12 AM
  • The Nuggets are -15.5 favorites vs. the Spurs
  • Total (Over/Under): 223.5 points
  • Watch the game on ALT | BSSW

The San Antonio Spurs visit Ball Arena to take on the Denver Nuggets on Tuesday. Tipoff is scheduled for 9:00pm EDT in Denver, CO.

The Nuggets are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -15.5 (-110).

The Spurs vs Nuggets Over/Under is 223.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Spurs are 39-36 against the spread, while the Nuggets are 34-39 against the spread.


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Spurs vs. Nuggets Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
San Antonio Spurs+15.5 -110O 223.5 -110+900
Denver Nuggets -15.5 -110U 223.5 -110-1600

Nuggets vs Spurs Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Nuggets will win Tuesday‘s game with 93.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Spurs and Nuggets.

Nuggets vs Spurs Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Nuggets will cover the spread for Tuesday‘s game with 60.3% confidence.


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  • The San Antonio Spurs have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 40 of their last 80 games (+18.80 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The San Antonio Spurs have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 31 of their last 53 games (+17.20 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The San Antonio Spurs have covered the 4Q Spread in 34 of their last 53 games (+13.05 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The San Antonio Spurs have covered the 1Q Spread in 47 of their last 77 games (+12.25 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The San Antonio Spurs have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 16 games (+11.90 Units / 67% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Moneyline in 69 of their last 96 games (+26.35 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 61 of their last 100 games (+16.20 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have covered the 1Q Spread in 54 of their last 88 games (+15.30 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Game Total Under in 51 of their last 86 games (+14.75 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 56 of their last 88 games (+13.00 Units / 8% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Spurs have gone 39-36 (-0.6 Units / -0.73% ROI).

  • 18-57 against the Moneyline (-16.45 Units / -20.65% ROI)
  • 36-37 against the Over for game total points (-4.7 Units / -5.7% ROI)
  • 37-36 against the Under for game total points (-2.6 Units / -3.15% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Nuggets have gone 34-39 (-8.9 Units / -10.78% ROI).

  • 52-23 against the Moneyline (+14.45 Units / 5.52% ROI)
  • 30-43 against the Over for game total points (-17.3 Units / -20.96% ROI)
  • 43-30 against the Under for game total points (+10.05 Units / 12.19% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 39 of their last 100 games (-30.20 Units / -27% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 39 of their last 98 games (-24.50 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 86 games (-23.10 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the Team Total Over in 37 of their last 80 games (-13.30 Units / -14% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 5 of their last 21 games at home (-13.30 Units / -55% ROI)
  • The San Antonio Spurs have only covered the 2Q Spread in 30 of their last 77 games (-23.65 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The San Antonio Spurs have only hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 32 of their last 78 games (-21.10 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The San Antonio Spurs have only covered the 3Q Spread in 31 of their last 78 games (-21.05 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The San Antonio Spurs have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 24 of their last 77 games (-20.35 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The San Antonio Spurs have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 25 of their last 80 games (-19.05 Units / -23% ROI)

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San Antonio Spurs: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Nuggets

The Spurs were winless (0-36) when allowing their opponent to shoot 40% or better from three last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .297

The Spurs are 4-46 (.080) when allowing 15 or more three-pointers since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .326

The Spurs are 3-60 (.048) when allowing their opponent to shoot 40% or better from three since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .305

The Spurs are 3-19 (.136) when their opponents turns the ball fewer than 10 times since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .430

Denver Nuggets: Keys to the Game vs. the San Antonio Spurs

The Nuggets were 15-3 (.833) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .556

The Nuggets are 25-5 (.833) when shooting 40% or better from three this season — 6th-best in the NBA. The Spurs have allowed opponents to shoot 38% from three this season — 5th-worst in the NBA.

The Nuggets are 45-7 (.865) when scoring 110 or more points this season — 2nd-best in the NBA. The Spurs have allowed 119.2 points per game this season — 6th-worst in the NBA.

The Nuggets are 25-8 (.758) when they win the turnover margin this season — 3rd-best in the NBA. The Spurs have averaged 15.0 turnovers per game this season — 5th-highest in the NBA.

Injury Report: Nuggets vs. SpursTuesday‘s Game, Apr. 2

  • Vlatko Cancar (Denver Nuggets): Knee, Out
  • Hunter Tyson (Denver Nuggets): Finger, Out
  • Jamal Murray (Denver Nuggets): Lower Leg, Out
  • Marcus Morris Sr. (San Antonio Spurs): Not Injury Related, Out
  • Charles Bassey (San Antonio Spurs): Knee, Out For Season

San Antonio Spurs Offensive Stats & Trends

The Spurs averaged 1.22 points per shot (9,269 points/7,593 shots) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.30

The Spurs have averaged 1.21 points per shot (8,652 points/7,166 shots) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.28

The Spurs had 21.2 free throw attempts per game last season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 23.5

The Spurs shot 74% from the free throw line (1,292/1,739) last season — tied for 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 78%

Denver Nuggets Offensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets shot 51% (1,831/3,563) at home last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

The Nuggets averaged 29.9 assists per game (1,227 assists/41 games) at home last season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 25.6

The Nuggets are shooting 51% (3,536/6,918) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

The Nuggets shot 52% (1,889/3,652) in the first half last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

San Antonio Spurs Defensive Stats & Trends

The Spurs allowed an eFG% of 59% on the road last season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 55%

The Spurs allowed opponents to shoot 51% (1,820/3,571) in the second half last season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 47%

The Spurs allowed opponents to shoot 51% (3,780/7,460) last season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 48%

The Spurs allowed 124.7 points per game (5,114 points/41 games) on the road last season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 115.9

Denver Nuggets Defensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets have averaged 7.1 steals per game (531 steals/75 games) this season — 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.4

The Nuggets have allowed 11.2 made three-pointers per game at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 12.4

The Nuggets have blocked 394 shots on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — 10th most among NBA teams

The Nuggets allowed 52.5 points in the paint per game (4,306 points/82 games) last season — 10th highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 50.5


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