Suns vs Nuggets Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Mar. 5

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Phoenix Suns logo on the left and Denver Nuggets logo on the right
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Mar 05, 2024, 4:30 PM
  • The Nuggets are -9.5 favorites vs. the Suns
  • Total (Over/Under): 223.5 points
  • Watch the game on TNT

The Phoenix Suns visit Ball Arena to take on the Denver Nuggets on Tuesday. Tipoff is scheduled for 10:00pm EST in Denver, CO.

The Nuggets are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -8.5 (-110).

The Suns vs Nuggets Over/Under is 223.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Suns are 24-35 against the spread, while the Nuggets are 27-32 against the spread.


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Suns vs. Nuggets Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Phoenix Suns+8.5 -110O 223.5 -105+310
Denver Nuggets -8.5 -110U 223.5 -115-400

Nuggets vs Suns Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Nuggets will win Tuesday‘s game with 85.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Suns and Nuggets.

Nuggets vs Suns Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Nuggets will cover the spread for Tuesday‘s game with 54.4% confidence.


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  • The Phoenix Suns have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 59 of their last 90 games (+25.20 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 48 of their last 72 games (+23.35 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 58 of their last 89 games (+23.00 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have hit the 1H Moneyline in 24 of their last 37 away games (+16.15 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have covered the 3Q Spread in 54 of their last 90 games (+15.50 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 62 of their last 95 games (+25.20 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Moneyline in 59 of their last 82 games (+24.80 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Game Total Under in 59 of their last 94 games (+22.70 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 54 of their last 89 games (+16.15 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 42 of their last 69 games (+12.90 Units / 17% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Suns have gone 24-35 (-14.75 Units / -21.87% ROI).

  • 35-26 against the Moneyline (-8.75 Units / -5.86% ROI)
  • 27-34 against the Over for game total points (-10.4 Units / -15.5% ROI)
  • 34-27 against the Under for game total points (+4.3 Units / 6.41% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Nuggets have gone 27-32 (-8.3 Units / -12.31% ROI).

  • 42-19 against the Moneyline (+12.9 Units / 6.44% ROI)
  • 22-38 against the Over for game total points (-19.8 Units / -29.53% ROI)
  • 38-22 against the Under for game total points (+13.8 Units / 20.57% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 33 of their last 95 games (-35.95 Units / -34% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 94 games (-31.90 Units / -31% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 35 of their last 89 games (-24.60 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only covered the 2Q Spread in 27 of their last 74 games (-21.55 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 41 of their last 99 games (-21.10 Units / -19% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have only covered the 4Q Spread in 26 of their last 88 games (-38.50 Units / -40% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 31 of their last 90 games (-34.70 Units / -35% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 30 of their last 88 games (-34.65 Units / -31% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 31 of their last 89 games (-34.15 Units / -34% ROI)
  • The Phoenix Suns have only covered the Spread in 34 of their last 88 games (-23.45 Units / -24% ROI)

Jump to:

Phoenix Suns: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Nuggets

The Suns are 15-10 (.600) when allowing 15 or more second chance points this season — tied for 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .440

The Suns are 12-4 (.750) when they win the turnover margin this season — tied for 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .541

The Suns were 16-4 (.800) when shooting 50% or better from the field last season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .733

The Suns were 13-2 (.867) when their eFG is 60% or better last season — tied for 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .808

Denver Nuggets: Keys to the Game vs. the Phoenix Suns

The Nuggets are 21-5 (.808) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2022-23 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .565

The Nuggets were 15-3 (.833) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .556

The Nuggets are 31-7 (.816) when scoring 110 or more points this season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .642

The Nuggets are 22-4 (.846) when forcing 10 or more steals since the start of the 2022-23 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .595

Injury Report: Nuggets vs. SunsTuesday‘s Game, Mar. 5

  • Vlatko Cancar (Denver Nuggets): Knee, Out
  • Hunter Tyson (Denver Nuggets): Finger, Out
  • Jamal Murray (Denver Nuggets): Lower Leg, Out
  • Jusuf Nurkic (Phoenix Suns): Ankle, Out
  • Bradley Beal (Phoenix Suns): Hamstring, Game Time Decision
  • Damion Lee (Phoenix Suns): Knee, Out

Phoenix Suns Offensive Stats & Trends

The Suns averaged 10.5 fast break points per game (863 points/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.0

The Suns averaged 1.4 fast break points per game (84 points/59 games) in close and late situations last season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 2.0

The Suns have an assist to turnover ratio of 1.7 (691 assists/ 411 TOs) on the road this season — tied for 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.9

The Suns are shooting 50% (2,268/4,545) this season — tied for 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

Denver Nuggets Offensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets are shooting 51% (2,954/5,757) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

The Nuggets have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.3 (1,548 assists/ 682 TOs) this season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 2.0

The Nuggets shot 51% (1,831/3,563) at home last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

The Nuggets have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.5 (762 assists/ 305 TOs) at home this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 2.0

Phoenix Suns Defensive Stats & Trends

The Suns have averaged 6.0 blocks per game (316 blocks/53 games) this season — tied for 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.2

The Suns blocked 432 shots last season — 5th most among NBA teams

The Suns have averaged 35.8 defensive rebounds per game (1,895 rebounds/53 games) this season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.1

The Suns have blocked 316 shots this season — 7th most among NBA teams

Denver Nuggets Defensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets have averaged 6.8 steals per game (365 steals/54 games) this season — tied for 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.4

The Nuggets have averaged 4.6 blocks per game (303 blocks/66 games) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for 8th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Nuggets allowed 52.5 points in the paint per game (4,306 points/82 games) last season — 10th highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 50.5

The Nuggets have allowed opponents to shoot 34% from three (280/820) in the second half this season — 3rd best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 37%


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