Thunder vs Bucks Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Mar. 16

  • The are favorites vs. the
  • Total (Over/Under): Total points
  • Watch the game on ESPN | FDOK | FDWI

The Oklahoma City Thunder visit Fiserv Forum to take on the Milwaukee Bucks on Sunday. Tipoff is scheduled for 9:00pm EDT in Milwaukee, WI, WI, USA.

The are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at ().

The Thunder vs Bucks Over/Under is total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Thunder are 40-24 against the spread, while the Bucks are 32-33 against the spread.


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Thunder vs. Bucks Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Oklahoma City Thunder O
Milwaukee Bucks U

Bucks vs Thunder Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Thunder will win Sunday‘s game with 79.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Thunder and Bucks.

Bucks vs Thunder Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Thunder will cover the spread for Sunday‘s game with 53.4% confidence.


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  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have covered the Spread in 50 of their last 82 games (+19.20 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 31 of their last 40 away games (+18.85 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the Moneyline in 72 of their last 94 games (+17.65 Units / 4% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the Team Total Over in 33 of their last 49 games (+14.55 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 40 games (+13.80 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 33 of their last 54 games (+10.22 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 15 games at home (+9.85 Units / 45% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have covered the 1H Spread in 26 of their last 41 games at home (+9.70 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 19 of their last 27 games at home (+9.65 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have covered the Spread in 13 of their last 17 games at home (+8.60 Units / 46% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Thunder have gone 40-24 (+13.6 Units / 18.18% ROI).

  • 55-13 against the Moneyline (+12.25 Units / 3.29% ROI)
  • 38-29 against the Over for game total points (+6.1 Units / 8.16% ROI)
  • 29-38 against the Under for game total points (-12.8 Units / -17.11% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Bucks have gone 32-33 (-4.3 Units / -5.83% ROI).

  • 39-28 against the Moneyline (-10.95 Units / -6.82% ROI)
  • 34-33 against the Over for game total points (-2.3 Units / -3.12% ROI)
  • 33-34 against the Under for game total points (-4.4 Units / -5.97% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the Moneyline in 44 of their last 84 games (-45.60 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only covered the 4Q Spread in 34 of their last 88 games (-28.60 Units / -28% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 30 of their last 72 games (-20.50 Units / -18% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 35 of their last 85 games (-20.25 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 27 of their last 68 games (-19.83 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 49 games (-21.35 Units / -38% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 37 of their last 90 games (-21.22 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 25 of their last 64 games (-18.50 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 36 of their last 84 games (-17.90 Units / -18% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 40 games (-17.70 Units / -40% ROI)

Jump to:

Oklahoma City Thunder: Keys to the Game vs. the Milwaukee Bucks

The Thunder are 58-9 (.866) when forcing 10 or more steals since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .588

The Thunder are 18-4 (.818) when attempting 15 or less free throws since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .443

The Thunder are 98-32 (.754) when allowing 12 or more offensive rebounds since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: .510

The Thunder are 49-10 (.831) when allowing 12 or more offensive rebounds this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .507

Milwaukee Bucks: Keys to the Game vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder

The Bucks are 53-19 (.736) when winning the rebounding margin since the start of the 2023-24 season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .636

The Bucks are 11-5 (.688) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points this season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .537

The Bucks are undefeated (14-0) when allowing fewer than 100 points since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: .908

The Bucks are 53-19 (.736) when winning the rebounding margin since the start of the 2023-24 season — 8th-best in the NBA. The Thunder have averaged 50.4 rebounds/game since the start of the 2023-24 season — 6th-lowest in the NBA.

Oklahoma City Thunder Offensive Stats & Trends

The Thunder shot 41% from three (558/1,378) in the second half last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 36%

The Thunder have averaged 5.7 turnovers per game (383 turnovers/67 games) in the second half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.2

The Thunder shot 39% from three (120/305) in close and late situations last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35%

The Thunder have averaged 11.9 turnovers per game (795 turnovers/67 games) this season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.4

Milwaukee Bucks Offensive Stats & Trends

The Bucks have averaged 14.2 offensive rebounds per game (936 rebounds/66 games) this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 17.1

The Bucks averaged 1.39 points per shot (4,829 points/3,483 shots) in the second half last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.31

The Bucks have averaged 5.7 fast break points per game (379 points/66 games) in the second half this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5

The Bucks have averaged 12.9 fast break points per game (852 points/66 games) this season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 15.5

Oklahoma City Thunder Defensive Stats & Trends

The Thunder have averaged 10.6 steals per game (711 steals/67 games) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 8.2

The Thunder have averaged 6.8 blocks per game (508 blocks/75 games) at home since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.2

The Thunder have allowed opponents to shoot 43% (1,227/2,851) in the second half this season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 47%

The Thunder have averaged 9.4 steals per game (692 steals/74 games) on the road since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.8

Milwaukee Bucks Defensive Stats & Trends

The Bucks have averaged 37.5 defensive rebounds per game (5,550 rebounds/148 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.3

The Bucks have averaged 38.1 defensive rebounds per game (2,515 rebounds/66 games) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.3

The Bucks have averaged 7.3 steals per game (482 steals/66 games) this season — tied for 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 8.2

The Bucks have averaged 7.0 steals per game (1,040 steals/148 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.8


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.