Thunder vs Mavericks Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, May 11

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM May 11, 2024, 4:30 PM
  • The Mavericks are -2.5 favorites vs. the Thunder
  • Total (Over/Under): 217.5 points
  • Watch the game on ABC

The Oklahoma City Thunder visit American Airlines Center to take on the Dallas Mavericks on Saturday. Tipoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EDT in Dallas, TX.

The Mavericks are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at + (+).

The Thunder vs Mavericks Over/Under is Not Found total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Thunder are 50-37 against the spread, while the Mavericks are 53-37 against the spread.


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Thunder vs. Mavericks Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Oklahoma City Thunder+ +O Not Found ++
Dallas Mavericks + +U Not Found ++

Mavericks vs Thunder Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Mavericks will win Saturday‘s game with 56.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Thunder and Mavericks.

Mavericks vs Thunder Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Thunder will cover the spread for Saturday‘s game with 51.0% confidence.


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  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the Moneyline in 59 of their last 82 games (+19.65 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have covered the 4Q Spread in 48 of their last 79 games (+15.30 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the Team Total Over in 46 of their last 77 games (+9.55 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have covered the Spread in 50 of their last 88 games (+9.30 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have covered the 3Q Spread in 47 of their last 83 games (+8.80 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 65 games (+16.70 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have covered the Spread in 29 of their last 41 games (+15.80 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 39 of their last 61 games (+14.95 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 22 games at home (+9.10 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 17 of their last 25 games (+7.70 Units / 26% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Thunder have gone 50-37 (+9.3 Units / 9.61% ROI).

  • 62-26 against the Moneyline (+19.4 Units / 6.5% ROI)
  • 45-39 against the Over for game total points (+2.1 Units / 2.17% ROI)
  • 39-45 against the Under for game total points (-10.4 Units / -10.75% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Mavericks have gone 53-37 (+12.3 Units / 12.44% ROI).

  • 55-35 against the Moneyline (+3.2 Units / 1.65% ROI)
  • 41-49 against the Over for game total points (-12.9 Units / -13.03% ROI)
  • 49-41 against the Under for game total points (+3.9 Units / 3.94% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 41 of their last 90 games (-29.45 Units / -19% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 1 of their last 15 games at home (-24.15 Units / -83% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 22 of their last 63 games (-24.05 Units / -33% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 67 games (-23.30 Units / -32% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only covered the 3Q Spread in 34 of their last 83 games (-19.20 Units / -20% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 85 games (-21.75 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 26 of their last 64 games (-17.25 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 26 of their last 64 games (-15.50 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 40 of their last 88 games (-15.25 Units / -15% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only covered the 1Q Spread in 12 of their last 34 away games (-13.15 Units / -34% ROI)

Jump to:

Oklahoma City Thunder: Keys to the Game vs. the Dallas Mavericks

Keys to the game – away

Dallas Mavericks: Keys to the Game vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder

Keys to the game – home

Injury Report: Mavericks vs. ThunderSaturday‘s Game, May 11

  • Greg Brown (Dallas Mavericks): Personal, Game Time Decision
  • Dante Exum (Dallas Mavericks): Foot, Game Time Decision
  • PJ Washington (Dallas Mavericks): Ankle, Game Time Decision
  • Maxi Kleber (Dallas Mavericks): Back, Game Time Decision
  • Dereck Lively II (Dallas Mavericks): Knee, Game Time Decision
  • Derrick Jones Jr. (Dallas Mavericks): Shoulder, Game Time Decision
  • Daniel Gafford (Dallas Mavericks): Elbow, Game Time Decision
  • Kyrie Irving (Dallas Mavericks): Hamstring, Game Time Decision
  • Luka Doncic (Dallas Mavericks): Ankle, Game Time Decision
  • Olivier Sarr (Oklahoma City Thunder): Ankle, Out For Season

Oklahoma City Thunder Offensive Stats & Trends

The Thunder are shooting 41% from three (558/1,378) in the second half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 36%

The Thunder have a TS% of 55% in the second half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 51%

The Thunder have a TS% of 54% this season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 52%

The Thunder are shooting 39% from three (1,090/2,805) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 37%

Dallas Mavericks Offensive Stats & Trends

The Mavericks averaged 40.7 points in the paint per game (1,668 points/41 games) on the road last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 50.2

The Mavericks averaged 6.0 turnovers per game (496 turnovers/82 games) in the second half last season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.0

The Mavericks have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.5 (240 assists/ 95 TOs) in close and late situations this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

The Mavericks averaged 42.8 points in the paint per game (3,510 points/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 50.5

Oklahoma City Thunder Defensive Stats & Trends

Away Team Defense Stories

Dallas Mavericks Defensive Stats & Trends

Home Team Defense Stories


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.