Timberwolves vs Mavericks Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Dec. 25

  • The Mavericks are -5.5 favorites vs. the Timberwolves
  • Total (Over/Under): 221.5 points
  • Watch the game on ABC | ESPN | ESPN+ | DIS+

The Minnesota Timberwolves visit American Airlines Center to take on the Dallas Mavericks on Wednesday. Tipoff is scheduled for 2:30pm EST in Dallas, TX.

The Mavericks are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at + (+).

The Timberwolves vs Mavericks Over/Under is Not Found total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Timberwolves are 11-17 against the spread, while the Mavericks are 17-11 against the spread.


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Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Minnesota Timberwolves+ +O Not Found ++
Dallas Mavericks + +U Not Found ++

Mavericks vs Timberwolves Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Mavericks will win Wednesday‘s game with 56.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Timberwolves and Mavericks.

Mavericks vs Timberwolves Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Timberwolves will cover the spread for Wednesday‘s game with 53.8% confidence.


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  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have covered the 3Q Spread in 52 of their last 79 games (+21.08 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 30 games (+14.05 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 31 of their last 48 away games (+11.40 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 55 of their last 95 games (+10.25 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have covered the Spread in 23 of their last 36 away games (+8.65 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have covered the Spread in 53 of their last 84 games (+21.10 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 35 of their last 49 games at home (+20.15 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 48 games at home (+16.50 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the Moneyline in 48 of their last 71 games (+16.50 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have covered the 4Q Spread in 43 of their last 70 games (+13.98 Units / 17% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Timberwolves have gone 11-17 (-7.75 Units / -25.12% ROI).

  • 14-14 against the Moneyline (-14.4 Units / -18.81% ROI)
  • 12-16 against the Over for game total points (-5.6 Units / -18.18% ROI)
  • 16-12 against the Under for game total points (+2.8 Units / 9.09% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Mavericks have gone 17-11 (+4.9 Units / 15.36% ROI).

  • 19-10 against the Moneyline (+4.95 Units / 5.88% ROI)
  • 16-13 against the Over for game total points (+1.7 Units / 5.33% ROI)
  • 13-16 against the Under for game total points (-4.6 Units / -14.42% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 37 of their last 100 games (-33.47 Units / -29% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 13 of their last 36 games at home (-28.50 Units / -43% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 100 games (-23.90 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only covered the 1Q Spread in 32 of their last 79 games (-21.20 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 11 of their last 37 games at home (-18.97 Units / -44% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 29 of their last 70 games (-39.25 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 40 of their last 98 games (-25.35 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 39 of their last 95 games (-24.35 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have only hit the Moneyline in 49 of their last 85 games (-24.00 Units / -9% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have only covered the 1Q Spread in 26 of their last 71 games (-23.85 Units / -29% ROI)

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Minnesota Timberwolves: Keys to the Game vs. the Dallas Mavericks

The Timberwolves were 24-10 (.706) when scoring 15 or more second chance points last season — 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .549

The Timberwolves are 17-10 (.630) when scoring fewer than 10 second chance points since the start of the 2023-24 season — 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .463

The Timberwolves are 19-9 (.679) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points since the start of the 2023-24 season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .536

The Timberwolves were 1-10 (.091) when allowing an eFG of 60% or better last season — 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .142

Dallas Mavericks: Keys to the Game vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves

The Mavericks are 39-19 (.672) when they win the turnover margin since the start of the 2023-24 season — T-8th-best in the NBA. The Timberwolves have averaged 14.6 turnovers per game since the start of the 2023-24 season — T-8th-highest in the NBA.

The Mavericks were 5-13 (.278) when scoring fewer than 10 fastbreak points last season — 8th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .395

The Mavericks are undefeated (11-0) when winning the rebounding margin this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .603

The Mavericks were 46-25 (.648) when allowing 12 or more offensive rebounds last season — 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .511

Minnesota Timberwolves Offensive Stats & Trends

The Timberwolves have averaged 12.8 fast break points per game (1,403 points/110 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.7

The Timberwolves have averaged 15.5 offensive rebounds per game (433 rebounds/28 games) this season — 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 16.9

The Timberwolves have an assist to turnover ratio of 1.6 (708 assists/ 448 TOs) this season — tied for 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

The Timberwolves averaged 15.2 offensive rebounds per game (1,250 rebounds/82 games) last season — tied for 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 16.2

Dallas Mavericks Offensive Stats & Trends

The Mavericks have averaged 6.0 turnovers per game (1,131 turnovers/188 games) in the second half since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 6.9

The Mavericks have averaged 6.1 turnovers per game (673 turnovers/111 games) in the second half since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 6.9

The Mavericks had an assist to turnover ratio of 2.5 (240 assists/ 95 TOs) in close and late situations last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

The Mavericks made 14.7 three-pointers per game last season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.8

Minnesota Timberwolves Defensive Stats & Trends

The Timberwolves averaged 36.2 defensive rebounds per game (2,971 rebounds/82 games) last season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Timberwolves averaged 7.9 steals per game (647 steals/82 games) last season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5

The Timberwolves allowed a TS% of 48% at home last season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 51%

The Timberwolves have averaged 36.0 defensive rebounds per game (3,956 rebounds/110 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.3

Dallas Mavericks Defensive Stats & Trends

The Mavericks averaged 36.0 defensive rebounds per game (2,951 rebounds/82 games) last season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Mavericks have averaged 5.4 blocks per game (157 blocks/29 games) this season — tied for 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.2

The Mavericks averaged 7.0 steals per game (572 steals/82 games) last season — tied for 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5

The Mavericks have averaged 36.5 defensive rebounds per game (1,058 rebounds/29 games) this season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.5


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