Timberwolves vs Nuggets Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Apr. 10

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Apr 10, 2024, 4:30 PM
  • The Nuggets are -5.5 favorites vs. the Timberwolves
  • Total (Over/Under): 212.5 points
  • Watch the game on ESPN | ALT | BSN

The Minnesota Timberwolves visit Ball Arena to take on the Denver Nuggets on Wednesday. Tipoff is scheduled for 10:00pm EDT in Denver, CO.

The Nuggets are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -6.5 (-105).

The Timberwolves vs Nuggets Over/Under is 211.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Timberwolves are 40-38 against the spread, while the Nuggets are 36-41 against the spread.


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Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Minnesota Timberwolves+6.5 -115O 211.5 -110+200
Denver Nuggets -6.5 -105U 211.5 -110-250

Nuggets vs Timberwolves Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Nuggets will win Wednesday‘s game with 64.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Timberwolves and Nuggets.

Nuggets vs Timberwolves Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Timberwolves will cover the spread for Wednesday‘s game with 54.5% confidence.


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  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have covered the 3Q Spread in 52 of their last 83 games (+17.45 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 29 of their last 43 games (+14.10 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 34 of their last 53 games (+13.20 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 18 of their last 24 games (+12.25 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 38 away games (+11.10 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Moneyline in 71 of their last 99 games (+26.05 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have covered the 1Q Spread in 58 of their last 92 games (+19.30 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 60 of their last 92 games (+17.00 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Game Total Under in 54 of their last 90 games (+16.65 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 17 of their last 19 games (+15.90 Units / 54% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Timberwolves have gone 40-38 (-1.9 Units / -2.18% ROI).

  • 55-24 against the Moneyline (+7.65 Units / 2.72% ROI)
  • 40-39 against the Over for game total points (-2.9 Units / -3.34% ROI)
  • 39-40 against the Under for game total points (-5 Units / -5.75% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Nuggets have gone 36-41 (-9.1 Units / -10.47% ROI).

  • 55-24 against the Moneyline (+15.95 Units / 5.35% ROI)
  • 31-46 against the Over for game total points (-19.6 Units / -22.54% ROI)
  • 46-31 against the Under for game total points (+11.95 Units / 13.76% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 39 of their last 97 games (-26.90 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 39 of their last 99 games (-25.75 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 90 games (-25.40 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the Team Total Over in 38 of their last 84 games (-15.80 Units / -16% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 6 of their last 23 games at home (-13.45 Units / -51% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 43 of their last 84 games (-29.60 Units / -15% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 35 of their last 86 games (-22.35 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 35 of their last 86 games (-22.30 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have only covered the 1Q Spread in 28 of their last 72 games (-21.70 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have only covered the 1H Spread in 35 of their last 84 games (-21.20 Units / -22% ROI)

Jump to:

Minnesota Timberwolves: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Nuggets

The Timberwolves are 13-2 (.867) when forcing 10 or more steals this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .565

The Timberwolves are 24-1 (.960) when scoring 15 or more fastbreak points this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .564

The Timberwolves were 5-8 (.385) when scoring fewer than 10 fastbreak points last season — 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .444

The Timberwolves are 8-2 (.800) when their opponent attempts fewer than 15 free throws this season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .545

Denver Nuggets: Keys to the Game vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves

The Nuggets are 26-6 (.812) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: .575

The Nuggets were 15-3 (.833) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .556

The Nuggets are 13-1 (.929) when forcing 10 or more steals this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .565

The Nuggets are 19-7 (.731) when allowing 15 or more second chance points this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .448

Injury Report: Nuggets vs. TimberwolvesWednesday‘s Game, Apr. 10

  • Vlatko Cancar (Denver Nuggets): Knee, Out
  • Hunter Tyson (Denver Nuggets): Finger, Out
  • Jamal Murray (Denver Nuggets): Lower Leg, Out
  • Rudy Gobert (Minnesota Timberwolves): Ankle, Game Time Decision
  • Jaylen Clark (Minnesota Timberwolves): Achilles, Out

Minnesota Timberwolves Offensive Stats & Trends

The Timberwolves averaged 54.2 points in the paint per game (4,446 points/82 games) last season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 50.5

The Timberwolves are shooting 39% from three (1,005/2,588) this season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 37%

The Timberwolves have averaged 14.1 turnovers per game (1,115 turnovers/79 games) this season — 9th highest among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.6

The Timberwolves have an eFG% of 50% in close and late situations this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 53%

Denver Nuggets Offensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets shot 51% (1,831/3,563) at home last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

The Nuggets have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.3 (2,466 assists/ 1,080 TOs) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.9

The Nuggets averaged 29.9 assists per game (1,227 assists/41 games) at home last season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 25.6

The Nuggets shot 52% (1,889/3,652) in the first half last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

Minnesota Timberwolves Defensive Stats & Trends

The Timberwolves have allowed an eFG% of 50% in the second half this season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 54%

The Timberwolves have allowed an eFG% of 51% this season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 55%

The Timberwolves averaged 5.4 blocks per game (444 blocks/82 games) last season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Timberwolves have allowed a TS% of 47% at home this season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 51%

Denver Nuggets Defensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets have averaged 36.0 defensive rebounds per game (2,844 rebounds/79 games) this season — tied for 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Nuggets have averaged 7.1 steals per game (560 steals/79 games) this season — 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5

The Nuggets have averaged 35.5 defensive rebounds per game (5,720 rebounds/161 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.3

The Nuggets have averaged 5.6 blocks per game (440 blocks/79 games) this season — tied for 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.2


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