Timberwolves vs Nuggets Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Mar. 29

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Mar 29, 2024, 4:31 PM
  • The Nuggets are -6.5 favorites vs. the Timberwolves
  • Total (Over/Under): 211.5 points
  • Watch the game on ALT | BSN

The Minnesota Timberwolves visit Ball Arena to take on the Denver Nuggets on Friday. Tipoff is scheduled for 9:00pm EDT in Denver, CO.

The Nuggets are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -6.5 (-115).

The Timberwolves vs Nuggets Over/Under is 212.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Timberwolves are 37-34 against the spread, while the Nuggets are 33-38 against the spread.


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Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Minnesota Timberwolves+6.5 -105O 212.5 -110+225
Denver Nuggets -6.5 -115U 212.5 -110-275

Nuggets vs Timberwolves Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Nuggets will win Friday‘s game with 70.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Timberwolves and Nuggets.

Nuggets vs Timberwolves Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Nuggets will cover the spread for Friday‘s game with 51.0% confidence.


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  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 32 of their last 46 games (+16.90 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have covered the 3Q Spread in 51 of their last 82 games (+16.60 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 49 of their last 85 games (+12.40 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 48 of their last 80 games (+11.95 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 25 of their last 36 games (+11.20 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Moneyline in 68 of their last 94 games (+26.80 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 63 of their last 100 games (+20.55 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have covered the 1Q Spread in 53 of their last 86 games (+15.45 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 84 games (+14.85 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 55 of their last 86 games (+13.30 Units / 8% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Timberwolves have gone 37-34 (-0.5 Units / -0.63% ROI).

  • 50-22 against the Moneyline (+7.15 Units / 3.07% ROI)
  • 36-36 against the Over for game total points (-3.6 Units / -4.55% ROI)
  • 36-36 against the Under for game total points (-3.6 Units / -4.55% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Nuggets have gone 33-38 (-8.8 Units / -10.95% ROI).

  • 51-22 against the Moneyline (+14.9 Units / 5.77% ROI)
  • 29-42 against the Over for game total points (-17.2 Units / -21.41% ROI)
  • 42-29 against the Under for game total points (+10.15 Units / 12.65% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 37 of their last 100 games (-34.55 Units / -30% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 40 of their last 100 games (-25.70 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the Game Total Over in 40 of their last 100 games (-23.80 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the Team Total Over in 47 of their last 100 games (-14.80 Units / -13% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only covered the 4Q Spread in 39 of their last 86 games (-13.75 Units / -14% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 31 of their last 82 games (-26.35 Units / -28% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 32 of their last 82 games (-24.05 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 32 of their last 85 games (-23.80 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have only covered the 1H Spread in 34 of their last 83 games (-22.10 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 39 of their last 77 games (-21.50 Units / -13% ROI)

Jump to:

Minnesota Timberwolves: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Nuggets

The Timberwolves are 41-20 (.672) when grabbing 12 or more offensive rebounds this season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .490

The Timberwolves are 18-10 (.643) when allowing 15 or more second chance points this season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .445

The Timberwolves are 20-9 (.690) when attempting 25 or more free throws this season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .555

The Timberwolves are 45-20 (.692) when they win the turnover margin since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .547

Denver Nuggets: Keys to the Game vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves

The Nuggets are 15-4 (.789) when attempting 25 or more free throws this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .555

The Nuggets were 24-7 (.774) when they win the turnover margin last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .540

The Nuggets were 15-3 (.833) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .556

The Nuggets are winless (0-8) when shooting 40% or worse from the field since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .119

Injury Report: Nuggets vs. TimberwolvesFriday‘s Game, Mar. 29

  • Vlatko Cancar (Denver Nuggets): Knee, Out
  • Hunter Tyson (Denver Nuggets): Finger, Out
  • Jamal Murray (Denver Nuggets): Lower Leg, Out
  • Rudy Gobert (Minnesota Timberwolves): Ankle, Game Time Decision
  • Jaylen Clark (Minnesota Timberwolves): Achilles, Out

Minnesota Timberwolves Offensive Stats & Trends

The Timberwolves are shooting 43% (331/770) in close and late situations this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 46%

The Timberwolves have averaged 15.4 offensive rebounds per game (1,108 rebounds/72 games) this season — 8th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 16.3

The Timberwolves have an assist to turnover ratio of 1.9 (1,906 assists/ 1,022 TOs) this season — tied for 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 2.0

The Timberwolves have averaged 1.33 points per shot (8,140 points/6,142 shots) this season — tied for 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.29

Denver Nuggets Offensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets shot 50% (3,574/7,088) last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

The Nuggets have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.5 (1,108 assists/ 444 TOs) at home this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 2.0

The Nuggets shot 52% (1,889/3,652) in the first half last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

The Nuggets averaged 29.9 assists per game (1,227 assists/41 games) at home last season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 25.6

Minnesota Timberwolves Defensive Stats & Trends

The Timberwolves have allowed an eFG% of 51% this season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 55%

The Timberwolves have allowed an eFG% of 49% at home this season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 54%

The Timberwolves stole the ball 657 times last season — 5th most among NBA teams

The Timberwolves have allowed opponents to shoot 45% (2,798/6,256) this season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 47%

Denver Nuggets Defensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets have averaged 7.1 steals per game (518 steals/73 games) this season — 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.4

The Nuggets have averaged 5.1 blocks per game (394 blocks/78 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

The Nuggets have allowed 11.3 made three-pointers per game since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 12.6

The Nuggets allowed opponents to shoot 34% from three (933/2,711) last season — tied for 2nd best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 36%


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.