Timberwolves vs Pistons Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Jan. 4

Minnesota Timberwolves logo on the left and Detroit Pistons logo on the right
  • The Timberwolves are -7.5 favorites vs. the Pistons
  • Total (Over/Under): 217.5 points
  • Watch the game on FDSN | FDDT

The Minnesota Timberwolves visit Little Caesars Arena to take on the Detroit Pistons on Saturday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EST in Detroit, MI.

The are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at ().

The Timberwolves vs Pistons Over/Under is total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Timberwolves are 13-19 against the spread, while the Pistons are 18-15 against the spread.


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Timberwolves vs. Pistons Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Minnesota Timberwolves O
Detroit Pistons U

Pistons vs Timberwolves Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Timberwolves will win Saturday‘s game with 80.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Timberwolves and Pistons.

Pistons vs Timberwolves Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Timberwolves will cover the spread for Saturday‘s game with 62.3% confidence.


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  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have covered the 3Q Spread in 54 of their last 84 games (+19.58 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 35 games (+11.65 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have covered the Spread in 25 of their last 39 away games (+9.55 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have hit the 1H Moneyline in 12 of their last 15 games (+9.15 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have covered the 1H Spread in their last 9 away games (+9.00 Units / 87% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have covered the 4Q Spread in 50 of their last 77 games (+21.40 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 38 of their last 67 games (+20.48 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 42 of their last 64 games (+16.64 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 29 of their last 53 games (+11.20 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 15 of their last 19 games (+10.40 Units / 47% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Timberwolves have gone 13-19 (-7.95 Units / -21.87% ROI).

  • 17-16 against the Moneyline (-12.7 Units / -15.32% ROI)
  • 16-17 against the Over for game total points (-2.7 Units / -7.44% ROI)
  • 17-16 against the Under for game total points (-0.6 Units / -1.65% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Pistons have gone 18-15 (+1.5 Units / 4.01% ROI).

  • 16-18 against the Moneyline (+3.6 Units / 8.87% ROI)
  • 17-15 against the Over for game total points (+0.5 Units / 1.34% ROI)
  • 15-17 against the Under for game total points (-3.7 Units / -9.89% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 30 of their last 81 games (-28.70 Units / -31% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 19 of their last 64 games (-21.00 Units / -29% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have only hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 26 of their last 66 games (-16.57 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have only hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 33 of their last 76 games (-16.15 Units / -19% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 18 of their last 58 games (-15.83 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 41 of their last 98 games (-23.55 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have only hit the Moneyline in 52 of their last 90 games (-22.30 Units / -8% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 42 of their last 98 games (-22.25 Units / -20% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have only covered the 1Q Spread in 30 of their last 76 games (-21.00 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have only hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 38 of their last 88 games (-17.35 Units / -17% ROI)

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Minnesota Timberwolves: Keys to the Game vs. the Detroit Pistons

The Timberwolves were 29-11 (.725) when scoring more second chance points than their opponent last season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .566

The Timberwolves are 2-8 (.200) when their opponents turns the ball fewer than 10 times since the start of the 2023-24 season — 4th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .427

The Timberwolves were 1-5 (.167) when their opponents turns the ball fewer than 10 times last season — 4th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .424

The Timberwolves are 34-13 (.723) when they win the turnover margin since the start of the 2023-24 season — 4th-best in the NBA. The Pistons have averaged 15.4 turnovers per game since the start of the 2023-24 season — 4th-highest in the NBA.

Detroit Pistons: Keys to the Game vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves

The Pistons are 7-84 (.077) when losing the rebounding margin since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .365

The Pistons are 19-102 (.157) when they lose the turnover margin since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .453

The Pistons were 4-31 (.114) when allowing 15 or more fastbreak points last season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .431

The Pistons were 4-34 (.105) when scoring fewer second chance points than their opponent last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .434

Minnesota Timberwolves Offensive Stats & Trends

The Timberwolves have averaged 12.2 fast break points per game (698 points/57 games) at home since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 15.1

The Timberwolves shot 43% (368/853) in close and late situations last season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 46%

The Timberwolves have averaged 15.9 turnovers per game (524 turnovers/33 games) this season — 10th highest among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.8

The Timberwolves shot 39% from three (1,037/2,681) last season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 37%

Detroit Pistons Offensive Stats & Trends

The Pistons made 11.0 three-pointers per game last season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.8

The Pistons have averaged 54.5 points per game (10,307 points/189 games) in the first half since the start of the 2022-23 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 57.5

The Pistons averaged 13.2 second chance points per game (1,084 points/82 games) last season — 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.8

The Pistons have an assist to turnover ratio of 1.6 (2,317 assists/ 1,415 TOs) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.9

Minnesota Timberwolves Defensive Stats & Trends

The Timberwolves averaged 7.9 steals per game (647 steals/82 games) last season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5

The Timberwolves allowed an eFG% of 52% last season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 55%

The Timberwolves averaged 6.0 blocks per game (496 blocks/82 games) last season — tied for 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

The Timberwolves allowed a TS% of 49% last season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 52%

Detroit Pistons Defensive Stats & Trends

The Pistons have averaged 7.1 steals per game (242 steals/34 games) this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 8.4

The Pistons have averaged 6.5 steals per game (359 steals/55 games) at home since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.7

The Pistons averaged 6.5 steals per game (531 steals/82 games) last season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5

The Pistons have averaged 34.5 defensive rebounds per game (6,523 rebounds/189 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — 8th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.3


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