Warriors vs Celtics Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Mar. 3

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Mar 03, 2024, 4:30 PM
  • The Celtics are -10.5 favorites vs. the Warriors
  • Total (Over/Under): 230.5 points
  • Watch the game on ABC

The Golden State Warriors visit TD Garden to take on the Boston Celtics on Sunday. Tipoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EST in Boston, MA.

The Celtics are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -7.5 (-115).

The Warriors vs Celtics Over/Under is 231.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Warriors are 33-25 against the spread, while the Celtics are 29-27 against the spread.


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Warriors vs. Celtics Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Golden State Warriors+7.5 -105O 231.5 -115+275
Boston Celtics -7.5 -115U 231.5 -105-350

Celtics vs Warriors Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Celtics will win Sunday‘s game with 90.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Warriors and Celtics.

Celtics vs Warriors Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Celtics will cover the spread for Sunday‘s game with 51.3% confidence.


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  • The Golden State Warriors have hit the 1H Moneyline in 28 of their last 40 away games (+21.70 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 20 of their last 27 games (+15.60 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have covered the 3Q Spread in 21 of their last 27 games (+15.40 Units / 52% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 34 of their last 52 games (+14.15 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have covered the Spread in 27 of their last 42 games (+11.60 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have covered the 1H Spread in 61 of their last 98 games (+23.15 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 23 of their last 31 games (+14.30 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have hit the 1H Moneyline in 75 of their last 98 games (+14.25 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have covered the 1Q Spread in 39 of their last 62 games (+13.45 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 30 of their last 46 games (+12.70 Units / 25% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Warriors have gone 33-25 (+5.5 Units / 8.47% ROI).

  • 32-27 against the Moneyline (-0.4 Units / -0.34% ROI)
  • 30-29 against the Over for game total points (-1.9 Units / -2.93% ROI)
  • 29-30 against the Under for game total points (-4.05 Units / -6.24% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Celtics have gone 29-27 (-0.65 Units / -1% ROI).

  • 47-12 against the Moneyline (+12.1 Units / 4.12% ROI)
  • 29-30 against the Over for game total points (-4 Units / -6.16% ROI)
  • 30-29 against the Under for game total points (-1.9 Units / -2.93% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 40 of their last 98 games (-23.80 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the Moneyline in 70 of their last 98 games (-23.30 Units / -5% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 36 of their last 87 games (-21.40 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only covered the 3Q Spread in 33 of their last 82 games (-21.05 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 40 of their last 92 games (-17.30 Units / -17% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only covered the 4Q Spread in 27 of their last 72 games (-20.80 Units / -27% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 19 of their last 54 games (-18.80 Units / -32% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only covered the 1H Spread in 39 of their last 91 games (-17.90 Units / -18% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 28 of their last 72 games (-17.90 Units / -20% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 15 of their last 41 games (-14.05 Units / -31% ROI)

Jump to:

Golden State Warriors: Keys to the Game vs. the Boston Celtics

The Warriors were 6-23 (.207) when allowing 15 or more three-pointers last season — 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .298

The Warriors were 2-12 (.143) when their eFG is 50% or worse last season — tied for 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .223

The Warriors were 24-11 (.686) when scoring more second chance points than their opponent last season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .544

The Warriors are 22-35 (.386) when allowing 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2022-23 season — 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .455

Boston Celtics: Keys to the Game vs. the Golden State Warriors

The Celtics are 31-6 (.838) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .565

The Celtics were 17-5 (.773) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points last season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .556

The Celtics are 37-5 (.881) when scoring 110 or more points this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .642

The Celtics are winless (0-3) when allowing an eFG of 60% or better this season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .169

Injury Report: Celtics vs. WarriorsSunday‘s Game, Mar. 3

  • Boston Celtics – No Injuries Reported
  • Chris Paul (Golden State Warriors): Hand, Out

Golden State Warriors Offensive Stats & Trends

The Warriors made 16.6 three-pointers per game last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.3

The Warriors averaged 14.4 assists per game (1,181 assists/82 games) in the second half last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.0

The Warriors averaged 30.5 assists per game (1,250 assists/41 games) at home last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 25.6

The Warriors averaged 29.8 assists per game (2,446 assists/82 games) last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 25.3

Boston Celtics Offensive Stats & Trends

The Celtics have made 16.4 three-pointers per game at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.8

The Celtics had an assist to turnover ratio of 2.1 (1,087 assists/ 527 TOs) on the road last season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

The Celtics have a TS% of 56% in the first half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 52%

The Celtics have made 856 three-pointers this season — most among NBA teams

Golden State Warriors Defensive Stats & Trends

The Warriors have averaged 4.1 blocks per game (211 blocks/51 games) this season — 4th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.2

The Warriors have averaged 6.6 steals per game (338 steals/51 games) this season — tied for 4th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.4

The Warriors have averaged 3.7 blocks per game (254 blocks/68 games) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Warriors have averaged 36.7 defensive rebounds per game (1,870 rebounds/51 games) this season — tied for 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.1

Boston Celtics Defensive Stats & Trends

The Celtics have averaged 38.9 defensive rebounds per game (2,064 rebounds/53 games) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.1

The Celtics have averaged 38.3 defensive rebounds per game (5,176 rebounds/135 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Celtics averaged 38.0 defensive rebounds per game (3,112 rebounds/82 games) last season — tied for 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Celtics have allowed an average of 1.19 points per shot (5,885 points/4,929 shots) this season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 1.30


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.