Duke vs Louisville Prediction, Odds & Best Bets Today – NCAAB, Jan. 23

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Louisville head coach Kenny Payne argues with a game official during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game against Wake Forest in Louisville, Ky., Saturday, Jan. 7, 2023.
(AP Photo/Timothy D. Easley)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jan 23, 2024, 11:22 AM
  • Duke (9-8) is a -13.5 point favorite vs Louisville (8-10)
  • Total (Over/Under): 150.5 points
  • Duke / Louisville TV channel: ACCN

The Duke Blue Devils (9-8) visit KFC Yum! Center to take on the Louisville Cardinals (8-10) on Jan. 23. Tip off is scheduled for 7:00pm EST in Louisville, KY.

Duke is the betting favorite in this game, with the spread sitting at -13.5 (-115).

The Duke vs. Louisville Over/Under is 150.5 total points.

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Duke vs. Louisville Odds, Spread, Over/Under

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Duke-13.5 -115O 150.5 -115-1400
Louisville +13.5 -105U 150.5 -105+775

Duke vs Louisville Prediction for Today:

The winning team model predicts Duke will win this college basketball game with 91.4% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups.

Duke vs Louisville Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the spread model predicts Louisville will cover the spread with 52.0% confidence for today’s game.


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  • Duke has hit the 1H Moneyline in 25 of their last 33 games (+10.45 Units / 3% ROI)
  • Duke has hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 14 away games (+5.60 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Duke has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 9 of their last 14 away games (+3.30 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Duke has hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 14 away games (+1.15 Units / 7% ROI)
  • Duke have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 14 away games (+1.05 Units / 6% ROI)
  • Louisville has hit the Team Total Over in 20 of their last 31 games (+7.20 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Louisville has hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 31 games (+6.90 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Louisville has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 10 of their last 17 games at home (+1.85 Units / 9% ROI)
  • Louisville have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 17 games at home (+0.25 Units / 1% ROI)

Duke Basketball Against the Spread Record (ATS)

Duke has a 9-8 record against the spread this college basketball season (+0.2 Units / 1.07% ROI).

  • 8-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.9 Units / -13.01% ROI
  • 9-8 when betting the Over for +0.25 Units / 1.34% ROI
  • 8-9 when betting the Under for -1.9 Units / -10.13% ROI

Louisville Basketball Against the Spread Record (ATS)

Louisville has a 7-9 record against the spread this college basketball season (-2.95 Units / -14.86% ROI).

  • 6-12 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.5 Units / 3.75% ROI
  • 10-8 when betting the Over for +1.2 Units / 6.06% ROI
  • 8-10 when betting the Under for -3 Units / -15.15% ROI

Duke Offensive Stats & Trends:

Duke has an assist to turnover ratio of 1.8 (277 assists/ 158 TOs) this season — tied for 7th best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 1.1

Duke has averaged 9.3 turnovers per game (158 turnovers/17 games) this season — 4th best among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 11.6

Duke has averaged 8.9 assists per game (152 assists/17 games) in the second half this season — best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 6.8

Duke is shooting 44% from three (79/179) in the second half this season — best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 36%

Louisville Offensive Stats & Trends:

Louisville has an assist to turnover ratio of 0.8 (206 assists/ 267 TOs) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among ACC Teams; League Avg: 1.1

Louisville has an assist to turnover ratio of 0.6 (233 assists/ 381 TOs) in the first half since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among ACC Teams; League Avg: 1.2

Louisville has an assist to turnover ratio of 0.7 (505 assists/ 696 TOs) since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among ACC Teams; League Avg: 1.2

Louisville has averaged 14.3 turnovers per game (429 turnovers/30 games) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — highest among ACC Teams; League Avg: 10.7

Duke Defensive Stats & Trends:

Duke has averaged 26.5 defensive rebounds per game (1,404 rebounds/53 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for 35th best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 24.3

Duke has allowed an average of 1.18 points per shot (1,762 points/1,499 shots) in the second half since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 1.28

Duke has allowed 63.4 points per game (2,028 points/32 games) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — 2nd best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 68.0

Duke has allowed opponents to shoot 34% from three (124/359) this season — 5th highest among ACC Teams; League Avg: 32%

Louisville Defensive Stats & Trends:

Louisville has averaged 4.8 steals per game (241 steals/50 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for 3rd lowest among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 6.6

Louisville has allowed an average of 1.22 points per shot (1,838 points/1,507 shots) in the first half since the start of the 2022-23 season — highest among ACC Teams; League Avg: 1.12

Louisville has averaged 4.8 steals per game (241 steals/50 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among ACC Teams; League Avg: 6.2

Louisville has allowed an average of 1.35 points per shot (2,826 points/2,089 shots) since the start of the 2022-23 season — 5th highest among Power Conference defenses; League Avg: 1.26


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.