How Often Does a No. 1 Seed Win March Madness?

Kansas coach Bill Self celebrates after beating Texas 84-74 to win the championship game of the Big 12 men's basketball tournament in Kansas City, Mo., Sunday, March 16, 2008.
(AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

Since March Madness expanded to 64 teams in 1985, there have been 39 NCAA tournaments. One of the four No. 1 seeds has won the tournament 25 times, or 64% of the time.ย 

That rate actually increases if you look at smaller, more modern time frames.

For instance, if you exclude the 1980s โ€“ a turbulent period where both the NCAA Tournament changed and the three-point shot was added to college basketball โ€“ the No. 1 seed win rate jumps to 71%.

Youโ€™ll get the same 71% rate if you sample the champions since Michigan State won in March 2000.

If you look at only the last 10 years, the number jumps close to 80%. Greyson Allen and Duke won the title in 2015, and the only teams to win the title without a No. 1 seed since then are 2016 Villanova and 2023 UConn.ย 

Many in the online sports betting space might assume the No. 1 overall seed has been responsible for a large portion of these championships. But curiously, the No. 1 overall seed hasnโ€™t had the same overwhelming amount of success.

The idea of a No. 1 overall seed was introduced in 2004, allowing the weakest No. 1 seed on the s-curve to be plotted as a hypothetical opponent for the No. 1 overall seed in the Final Four.ย 

But that hypothetical advantage hasnโ€™t necessarily played out in reality. Only five No. 1 seeds have won the title since 2004. One of those was 2013 Louisville, which had its title rescinded years later due to an NCAA investigation.ย 

So, when you dive into March Madness odds this year, remember: itโ€™s pretty likely that a No. 1 seed will win it, but think twice before you go all in on Auburn basketball odds.ย 

No. 1 Seeds That Won March Madness

First Bet Offer $1,500 FBO
SeasonTeamSeed
2024UConnNo. 1 Overall
2023UConn4
2022Kansas1
2021Baylor1
2020Tournament Cancelled
2019Virginia1
2018Villanova1
2017North Carolina1
2016Villanova2
2015Duke1
2014UConn7
2013LouisvilleNo. 1 Overall
2012Kentucky No. 1 Overall
2011UConn3
2010Duke1
2009North Carolina1
2008KansasNo. 1 Overall
2007FloridaNo. 1 Overall
2006Florida3
2005North Carolina1
2004UConn2
2003Syracuse3
2002Maryland1
2001Duke1
2000Michigan State1
1999UConn1
1998Kentucky 2
1997Arizona4
1996Kentucky 1
1995UCLA 1
1994Arkansas1
1993North Carolina1
1992Duke1
1991Duke2
1990UNLV1
1989Michigan 3
1988Kansas6
1987Indiana1
1986Louisville2
1985Villanova8

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About the Author

Chase Kiddy

Read More @chaseakiddy

Chase Kiddy is a writer for BetMGM and co-host of The Lion's Edge, an NFL and college football podcast available on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and everywhere else. He has also written for a number of print and online outlets, including the Richmond Times-Dispatch, Washington Post, Daily News-Record, and HERO Sports. His first novel, Cave Paintings, is in development.

Chase Kiddy is a writer for BetMGM and co-host of The Lion's Edge, an NFL and college football podcast available on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and everywhere else. He has also written for a number of print and online outlets, including the Richmond Times-Dispatch, Washington Post, Daily News-Record, and HERO Sports. His first novel, Cave Paintings, is in development.