How Often Does a No. 1 Seed Win March Madness?

Since March Madness expanded to 64 teams in 1985, there have been 39 NCAA tournaments. One of the four No. 1 seeds has won the tournament 25 times, or 64% of the time. 

That rate actually increases if you look at smaller, more modern time frames.

For instance, if you exclude the 1980s – a turbulent period where both the NCAA Tournament changed and the three-point shot was added to college basketball – the No. 1 seed win rate jumps to 71%.

You’ll get the same 71% rate if you sample the champions since Michigan State won in March 2000.

If you look at only the last 10 years, the number jumps close to 80%. Greyson Allen and Duke won the title in 2015, and the only teams to win the title without a No. 1 seed since then are 2016 Villanova and 2023 UConn. 

Many in the online sports betting space might assume the No. 1 overall seed has been responsible for a large portion of these championships. But curiously, the No. 1 overall seed hasn’t had the same overwhelming amount of success.

The idea of a No. 1 overall seed was introduced in 2004, allowing the weakest No. 1 seed on the s-curve to be plotted as a hypothetical opponent for the No. 1 overall seed in the Final Four. 

But that hypothetical advantage hasn’t necessarily played out in reality. Only five No. 1 seeds have won the title since 2004. One of those was 2013 Louisville, which had its title rescinded years later due to an NCAA investigation. 

So, when you dive into March Madness odds this year, remember: it’s pretty likely that a No. 1 seed will win it, but think twice before you go all in on Auburn basketball odds. 

No. 1 Seeds That Won March Madness