Virginia vs SMU Prediction, Odds & Best Bets Today – NCAAB, Dec. 7

SMU head coach Rob Lanier during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game against Houston, Thursday, Jan. 5, 2023, in Houston.
(AP Photo/Kevin M. Cox)
  • SMU is a -9.5 point favorite vs Virginia
  • Total (Over/Under): 135.5 points
  • Virginia / SMU TV channel: CW

The Virginia Cavaliers visit Moody Coliseum to take on the SMU Mustangs on Dec. 7. Tip off is scheduled for 2:15pm EST in Dallas, TX.

SMU is the betting favorite in this game, with the spread sitting at -9.5 (-115).

The Virginia vs. SMU Over/Under is 135.5 total points.

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Virginia vs. SMU Odds, Spread, Over/Under

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Virginia+9.5 -105O 135.5 -110+400
SMU -9.5 -115U 135.5 -110-550

Virginia vs SMU Prediction for Today:

The winning team model predicts SMU will win this college basketball game with 80.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups.

Virginia vs SMU Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the spread model predicts SMU will cover the spread with 52.8% confidence for today’s game.


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  • Virginia has hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 32 games (+6.90 Units / 5% ROI)
  • Virginia has hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 33 games (+4.70 Units / 12% ROI)
  • Virginia has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 18 of their last 33 games (+2.00 Units / 5% ROI)
  • Virginia has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 14 away games (+1.35 Units / 9% ROI)
  • Virginia have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 14 away games (+1.35 Units / 9% ROI)
  • SMU has hit the 1H Moneyline in 23 of their last 32 games (+9.70 Units / 1% ROI)
  • SMU has hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 32 games (+4.75 Units / 14% ROI)
  • SMU has hit the Team Total Over in 10 of their last 17 games at home (+2.20 Units / 11% ROI)
  • SMU has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 18 of their last 32 games (+2.00 Units / 5% ROI)

Virginia Basketball Against the Spread Record (ATS)

Virginia has a 3-5 record against the spread this college basketball season (-2.5 Units / -28.41% ROI).

  • 6-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.45 Units / 11.19% ROI
  • 4-4 when betting the Over for -0.4 Units / -4.55% ROI
  • 4-4 when betting the Under for -0.4 Units / -4.55% ROI

SMU Basketball Against the Spread Record (ATS)

SMU has a 4-5 record against the spread this college basketball season (-1.5 Units / -15.15% ROI).

  • 6-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.8 Units / -0.16% ROI
  • 7-2 when betting the Over for +4.8 Units / 48.73% ROI
  • 2-7 when betting the Under for -5.75 Units / -57.79% ROI

Virginia Offensive Stats & Trends:

Virginia averaged 62.7 points per game (1,944 points/31 games) last season — lowest among ACC Teams; League Avg: 74.5

Virginia shot 62% from the free throw line (260/416) last season — lowest among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 73%

Virginia averaged 8.2 turnovers per game (255 turnovers/31 games) last season — best among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 11.3

Virginia averaged 62.7 points per game (1,944 points/31 games) last season — lowest among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 75.6

SMU Offensive Stats & Trends:

SMU averaged 14.2 offensive rebounds per game (456 rebounds/32 games) last season — 3rd best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 9.8

SMU averaged 15.2 assists per game (488 assists/32 games) last season — tied for 47th best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 13.4

SMU had an assist to turnover ratio of 1.4 (488 assists/ 358 TOs) last season — tied for 37th best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 1.2

SMU averaged 1.21 points per shot (2,409 points/1,995 shots) last season — tied for 37th lowest among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 1.25

Virginia Defensive Stats & Trends:

Virginia allowed 25.9 points per game (803 points/31 games) in the first half last season — best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 33.5

Virginia allowed 25.9 points per game (803 points/31 games) in the first half last season — best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 33.5

Virginia allowed 59.2 points per game (1,835 points/31 games) last season — 2nd best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 72.0

Virginia allowed 59.2 points per game (1,835 points/31 games) last season — 2nd best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 72.0

SMU Defensive Stats & Trends:

SMU averaged 8.2 steals per game (264 steals/32 games) last season — tied for 38th best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 6.7

SMU allowed an average of 1.17 points per shot (2,171 points/1,857 shots) last season — tied for 37th best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 1.23

SMU allowed opponents to shoot 31% from three (212/679) last season — tied for 17th best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 34%

SMU allowed opponents to shoot 41% (762/1,857) last season — tied for 22nd best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 44%


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About the Author

Chase Kiddy

Read More @chaseakiddy

Chase Kiddy is a writer for BetMGM and co-host of The Lion's Edge, an NFL and college football podcast available on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and everywhere else. He has also written for a number of print and online outlets, including the Richmond Times-Dispatch, Washington Post, Daily News-Record, and HERO Sports. His first novel, Cave Paintings, is in development.

Chase Kiddy is a writer for BetMGM and co-host of The Lion's Edge, an NFL and college football podcast available on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and everywhere else. He has also written for a number of print and online outlets, including the Richmond Times-Dispatch, Washington Post, Daily News-Record, and HERO Sports. His first novel, Cave Paintings, is in development.