This NFL Betting Trend for Road Underdogs Dominated in 2021

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(AP Photo/Darryl Webb)
Andrew Doughty @DoughtyBetMGM Feb 14, 2022, 11:24 PM

The Seattle Seahawks ruined the Arizona Cardinals‘ chances at an NFC West title with a road win in Week 18 of the 2021 NFL season.

It was the 38th and final game of the regular season in which a road team was an underdog between 4.5 and 7 points. And the road dogs dominated in those spots.

In scoring 14 fourth-quarter points for an 8-point win, the Seahawks (+5.5) cashed moneyline tickets, which, at +190, delivered a 190-percent return on investment. It was the 22nd time in which the road dog won outright, 18 of which came when the dog was at least +200, and five of which came when the dog was at least +250:

 

MatchupMoneylineResult
Giants (+6) at Saints+273Giants 27-21
Titans (+7) at Rams+280Titans 28-16
Panthers (+7) at Cardinals+262Panthers 34-10
Raiders (+7) at Cowboys+270Raiders 36-33
Bears (+7) at Seahawks+250Bears 25-24

If you bet on the moneyline underdog in each of the 38 games, your return on investment would’ve been approximately 92 percent. A $100 stake on each game, for example, would’ve returned $7,300, a profit of $3,500.

It was a dramatic NFL betting trend reversal from the previous four seasons, during which road underdogs went just 40-128-1 outright when the spread was between +4.5 and +7. And betting $100 on each game would’ve resulted in a loss of nearly $4,000, including losses of at least $1,400 in each of the 2017 and 2018 seasons.

The strong season for road teams in this spot came as road teams fared well overall (again), covering more than 50 percent of regular-season games (52.4) and winning more than 48 percent of games (48.7) for the third straight season.

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About the Author

Andrew Doughty

Read More @DoughtyBetMGM

Andrew Doughty is a writer for BetMGM and host of The Lion's Edge, an NFL and college football podcast available on Apple Podcasts and everywhere else.

Andrew Doughty is a writer for BetMGM and host of The Lion's Edge, an NFL and college football podcast available on Apple Podcasts and everywhere else.