The Denver Broncos blew a second-half lead in a four-point loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 18 of the 2021 season. But in keeping the game within reach – ultimately losing by four points – they covered the spread (-11.5) to finish the season 5-4 against the spread at home.
It was the third straight season in which the Broncos posted a higher home ATS winning percentage than the league-wide home ATS winning percentage – after doing so just once in the previous three seasons. Only six other NFL teams did the same over that time.
| Year | Broncos Home ATS | NFL Home ATS |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | .556 | .474 |
| 2020 | .500 | .498 |
| 2019 | .625 | .432 |
Of the six other teams that exceeded league-wide home cover rates each year from 2019-21, only two are in a position to do it again in 2022. The Green Bay Packers and Miami Dolphins each have a home cover rate of .571, currently above the league rate of .498.
But if the Packers and Dolphins fail to cover at home in Week 18 – vs. the Detroit Lions and the New York Jets, respectively – and enough home teams cover elsewhere to push the league’s season rate above .500, their streaks will end at three years.
The Broncos enter Sunday’s game against the Los Angeles Chargers with a home ATS winning percentage of .429 (3-4). If they cover against the Chargers and things fall right elsewhere, they could be the league’s most consistent home ATS team since 2019.
Chargers vs. Broncos Prediction
Historically, when the Broncos struggle for wins, they’re still good at covering home spreads and remaining competitive within the division.
Three of the Broncos’ seven total ATS wins this season have come within the division – including a narrow cover against the Chargers in October – and they’re just one ATS game under .500 (8-9) against divisional teams the last three seasons. Seven of their last eight divisional games have been decided by six or fewer points.
I like the Broncos to win and cover as a 2.5-point (as of Thursday’s NFL odds at BetMGM) home favorite.
Broncos 24, Chargers 21
